Polls Are Tightening – Trump Good For Trading – Here’s Why

September 7, 2016
Author: Peter Stolcers, Founder of OneOption

Posted 9:30 AM ET - With each passing day the volume will grow. The news is still light, but bankers, traders and politicians are back to work. The market is trapped in a range and until the SPY breaks below $215.50 or it makes a new high, I won't be swing trading. Yesterday we found some nice stocks that trended all day. Yahoo, Facebook, Alibaba and Amazon made steady progress and we made excellent money day trading call options in the chat room. As the volume returns the random chop that we've had to suffer through the last month will start to subside. Stocks will have an orderly pace and that will improve our performance. The FOMC meeting is on September 21st. That is the next big news event. The soft jobs report last Friday will keep the Fed sidelined. Hillary Clinton's commanding lead is fading and the election could spark some market volatility. A month ago this looked like a landslide victory and stocks were getting used to the notion. Uncertainty is good from my perspective because it means that we will have two-sided price action. By no means am I stating that Hillary would be good for the market and Trump would be bad for the market. My point is that Hillary is a known commodity and we will have four more years of an Obama-like administration. On the other hand, Trump is an unknown and the market doesn't know if there will be unintended consequences due to his policies. Option implied volatilities are near historic lows. That indicates complacency and that is typically when corrections happen. I am not going to jump the gun. I will wait for a breakout or a breakdown. Once I have technical confirmation, I will start to swing trade. The longer and tighter the range, the bigger and more sustained the breakout. Until this happens I will continue to day trade. I have been finding nice trades on both sides of the market, but I have been favoring the upside. The market is flat this morning and I don't have a good feel on which way it might go. There's a good chance that it will establish an early range this morning and it might stay in that range all day. . . image

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