Daily Market Analysis
Play-by-play market analysis comments for each day grouped by month.
September 2026
SPY slipped 0.6% to $763 as it gave back part of the August breakout. A better than expected jobs report of 162K and a .4% PPI rise pushed interest rates to their highest level since 2007, and a 25 basis point Fed rate hike drove a test of the 100-day moving average. A 1.6% rally on September 21 broke the downward trendline from August.
August 2026
SPY gained 2.7% to $767 as it broke out of a trading range that lasted almost two months to new all-time highs. A 1.8% gain on August 4 led the move, which looked like mechanical short covering, and five straight days of closes below the open followed. Strong earnings from NVDA, CRM, CRWD and OKTA helped SPY find support above the breakout.
July 2026
SPY was unchanged, 0.0%, at $747 after a month trapped in a horizontal range between $720 and $760. Buyers and sellers stayed in balance, the 50-day moving average lost its relevance, and strong AI earnings from ASML and others failed to spark a breakout. Mega-cap tech earnings brought a 1.5% drop on July 29 and a 1.7% rebound on July 30.
June 2026
SPY slipped 1.3% to $747 after a pullback from its highs. A wave of IPOs added supply that weighed on stocks, and a 2.6% drop on June 5 started the slide. News of an Iran deal sparked a 1.8% rally on June 15, but the gains from the SpaceX IPO and the Iran agreement faded as the 50-day moving average was tested repeatedly.
May 2026
SPY gained 5.3% to $756 as the market kept setting all-time highs on strong earnings and hopes for an Iran deal. Hot inflation readings and weakness in Treasuries fed a 1.2% drop on May 15, but the pullback stayed shallow. Attention stayed on AI, chips and data centers while the Fed held off on cuts.
April 2026
SPY rose 10.5% to $719 as buyers erased six weeks of losses in two weeks. A cease fire in Iran sparked a 2.6% jump on April 8, and short covering pushed the index through its major moving averages to new all-time highs. Mega-cap tech earnings and strong chip stocks supported the advance late in the month.
March 2026
SPY lost 5.2% to $650 as the war in Iran and elevated oil prices weighed on stocks. The Fed signaled only one rate cut this year, and the market broke down from its range to close below the 200-day moving average for the first time in 10 months, with a 1.8% drop on March 26. A 2.9% bounce on March 31 ended the month.
February 2026
SPY slipped 0.9% to $686 as the market stayed trapped in a horizontal range. Mega-cap tech earnings failed to excite buyers, a 1.5% drop on February 12 tested the 100-day moving average, and a Supreme Court tariff ruling went against Trump. Nvidia earnings sparked no breakout, and price spent more time near the low end of the range.
January 2026
SPY gained 1.5% to $692 in a month spent mostly near the all-time high. The Powell investigation and Greenland tariff threats fed a 2.0% drop on January 20, and a framework that removed the threat sparked a rebound. Mega-cap tech earnings and Kevin Warsh as the pick to replace Powell closed out the month.
December 2025
SPY slipped 0.2% to $682 in a month that stayed close to its all-time high. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points but signaled only one more cut next year, and a 1.1% drop on December 17 was followed by a 0.8% bounce on December 18 during triple witching. Q3 GDP growth of 4.3% beat expectations as traders eyed a year-end seasonal rally.
November 2025
SPY gained 0.2% to $683 after a volatile month of almost no progress. A government shutdown lasting more than 40 days left traders without official economic data, with a 1.6% jump on November 10 as a deal neared and a 1.7% drop on November 13 when it ended. Nvidia earnings and tests of the 50-day moving average shaped the final weeks.
