2025-11-03
SPY rose 0.2% to $683 as gains from the Fed rate cut held. The Fed ended quantitative tightening and stayed open to a December cut, while frequent use of its repo facility hinted at tight liquidity.
Daily Market Analysis
November 2025
SPY gained 0.2% to $683 after a volatile month of almost no progress. A government shutdown lasting more than 40 days left traders without official economic data, with a 1.6% jump on November 10 as a deal neared and a 1.7% drop on November 13 when it ended. Nvidia earnings and tests of the 50-day moving average shaped the final weeks.
A complete intraday market analysis for each day is listed below.
2025-11-04
SPY fell 1.2% to $675 as a 70 point overnight drop in the S&P 500 prompted panic. The drop was framed as a healthy test of light volume gains, with short term put positions now ready to be reloaded.
2025-11-05
SPY gained 0.3% to $678 as reports said the government shutdown could end soon. Tech stocks struggled to hold gains after AMD and PLTR fell on earnings, and the Supreme Court was set to rule on tariffs.
2025-11-06
SPY dropped 1.1% to $670 as the shutdown left ADP's 42K jobs as the best labor read. ISM Services improved to 52.4 from 50.0, while Challenger Gray & Christmas offered a more dire outlook.
2025-11-07
SPY rose 0.1% to $671 as the market drifted lower from last week's high. The breakout at SPY $674 failed, the market sat below AVWAPQ, and the 50-day MA was likely to be tested.
2025-11-10
SPY gained 1.6% to $681 as Republicans appeared to have the votes to pass the continuing resolution by 60-40. The shutdown was expected to reduce GDP for the quarter.
2025-11-11
SPY gained 0.2% to $683 as the S&P 500 rallied almost 100 points on news that the government was likely to reopen. Some estimates put Q4 GDP at 1.5% lower because of the shutdown.
2025-11-12
SPY rose 0.1% to $683 as a normal dip in a bullish trend gave way to light volume gains. Economic data was missing because of the shutdown, and weak employment numbers were expected whenever they arrive.
2025-11-13
SPY fell 1.7% to $672 as the shutdown ended with a signed funding bill. The turmoil raised credit downgrade worries, and CSCO reported strong earnings with NVDA due to report next week.
2025-11-14
SPY was flat at 0.0% and closed at $672 as the market sold off hard after the government reopened. The drop was broad and came on heavy volume, and conditions looked worse than the missing data showed.
2025-11-17
SPY fell 0.9% to $666 as the market held support after testing the 50-day MA a second time and making a higher low. Banks' use of the Fed repo facility remained a warning sign for liquidity.
2025-11-18
SPY fell 0.8% to $660 as a second retest of the 50-day MA left the picture less bullish. The market took a chunk out of the prior green candle instead of the red one, which was bearish.
2025-11-19
SPY rose 0.4% to $663 as news of a $1T Saudi investment in the US stopped a slide toward the 100-day MA. Nvidia's earnings were due after the close, with AI and crypto stocks driving the recent rally.
2025-11-20
SPY slipped 1.5% to $653 as the market breached the 50-day MA after the Fed rate cut. Nvidia posted solid growth and its CEO denied an AI bubble, but steady tech selling suggested only a bounce.
2025-11-21
SPY rose 1.0% to $659 as the market gapped up on Nvidia earnings, then collapsed through the 50-day MA on stacked red candles with heavy volume. The close tested the 100-day MA and showed building selling pressure.
2025-11-24
SPY rose 1.5% to $669 as the market regrouped after a crazy week ahead of the holiday. Testing the highs from the prior session was the first hurdle, with long green candles needed to signal recovery.
2025-11-25
SPY rose 0.9% to $675 as much of the prior drop proved artificial, driven by options expiration and stop triggers. Losses were largely recovered, and retail sales and PPI (.3%) came in line.
2025-11-26
SPY gained 0.7% to $680 as buyers and sellers stayed paired off with forward P/Es rich. Two rate cuts and earnings produced a 2% gain last quarter, and the market is up 14% for the year.
