2025-10-01
SPY rose 0.3% to $668 as a government shutdown looked likely with the S&P 500 near an all-time high. Past stand offs were resolved, so a continuing resolution is expected to keep the government open.
Daily Market Analysis
October 2025
SPY gained 2.4% to $682 in a month that kept testing buyers. It made all-time highs early despite a government shutdown that halted economic data, then a tariff-driven 2.7% drop on October 10 left it range-bound for two weeks. A Fed rate cut, the end of quantitative tightening and mega-cap earnings carried it back near the highs.
A complete intraday market analysis for each day is listed below.
2025-10-02
SPY rose 0.1% to $669 as the market made an all-time high despite the private sector shedding 32K jobs and the government shutdown. Rallying amid bad news shows aggressive buyers, and 54,000 planned job cuts were fewer than before.
2025-10-03
SPY was flat at 0.0%, closing at $669. No jobs report is coming because of the government shutdown, and no news is good news. The market made a new all-time high and recovered from a pullback, giving buyers confidence.
2025-10-06
SPY rose 0.4% to $672 as the government shutdown removed the threat of weak economic releases. If it lingers another week without progress the market may warn politicians, though a resolution within two weeks is expected.
2025-10-07
SPY fell 0.4% to $669 after an inside day left Friday's high as resistance. The best scenario was an early breakout above $673 on nice candles and volume, leading to a gradual float higher.
2025-10-08
SPY rose 0.6% to $673 even as the government shutdown passed a week with no progress. The market has ignored it, expecting a quick resolution, but recent intraday drops on heavy volume may be early warning signs.
2025-10-09
SPY fell 0.3% to $671 as consumer stocks looked very weak, including defensive names, car makers, home builders, restaurants and gaming stocks, all described as good shorts. GOOG needs to find support at $239.
2025-10-10
SPY fell 2.7% to $653 after compressing at the all-time high with no government data during the shutdown. FOMC Minutes were more hawkish than the market would like, and most activity was program generated.
2025-10-13
SPY rose 1.5% to $663 as long green and red candles show aggressive buyers and sellers, so waiting for a victor is advised. Risk is elevated with no economic reports, government layoffs and AI valuations vulnerable to rare earth shortages.
2025-10-14
SPY fell 0.1% to $662 after Friday's drop served as a warning shot. Monday's relief bounce may have been lifted by a banking holiday with thin trading desks, and a 100% Chinese tariff hike previously triggered a 1000 point selloff.
2025-10-15
SPY rose 0.4% to $665 as bank earnings reactions were favorable and buyers recovered most of the prior decline. XLF bounced off the 100-day MA and was poised to clear the 50-day MA.
2025-10-16
SPY slipped 0.7% to $661 as the government shutdown dragged on and economic data collection stopped. Concern grew over the impact on the nation's credit rating and borrowing costs.
2025-10-17
SPY gained 0.6% to $664 as credit concerns surfaced after subprime auto lender failures and a $50 million write off at Zions Bank. Regional banks sold off, raising worries that more problems could follow.
2025-10-20
SPY gained 1.0% to $671 as the market stayed trapped in the long red candle from the new China tariffs. Investors were not expected to care about trade talks until supply disruptions or higher prices appeared.
2025-10-21
SPY was flat at 0.0% and closed at $671 as the tariff related drop from two weeks earlier kept reversing. Trade talks with China were expected to stay cordial despite a threatened tariff increase of 100%.
2025-10-22
SPY slipped 0.5% to $668 as the market inched toward the all-time high and earnings season unfolded. Banks tapping the Fed repo facility hinted at liquidity issues, and futures priced a 97% chance of a rate cut.
2025-10-23
SPY gained 0.6% to $672 as the market stayed in its trading range awaiting a catalyst. Price action was driven by trading programs, and a seasonally bullish period was expected to bring an upside breakout.
2025-10-24
SPY rose 0.8% to $677 as the market made a new high on a friendlier trade tone between China and the US. A meeting between Xi and Trump in South Korea appeared likely.
2025-10-27
SPY rose 1.2% to $685 as earnings and interest rates took center stage. MSFT, META and GOOG were due to report, and the Fed was likely to cut rates while the shutdown created uncertainty.
2025-10-28
SPY rose 0.3% to $687 as a preliminary ADP report showed 55K private sector jobs created, a big improvement from the previous month's -32K. Pressure grew on Democrats to pass the continuing resolution.
2025-10-29
SPY was flat at 0.0% and closed at $687 as the Fed was expected to cut rates with GOOG, META and MSFT reporting after the close. Democrats felt growing pressure to end the shutdown by passing the continuing resolution.
2025-10-30
SPY dropped 1.1% to $680 as the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points and ended quantitative tightening. Powell did not call a December cut a given, and banks kept tapping the overnight repo facility.
2025-10-31
SPY gained 0.3% to $682 as mega cap tech earnings reactions were excellent except for META. Trump's Asian tour brought trade deals, though rare earth licensing requirements remained in place.
