2025-12-01
SPY dropped 0.5% to $680 as ISM Manufacturing and labor data were due. The jobs report would not be posted, so the Fed headed into its meeting blind, with futures pricing in an 87% chance of a rate cut.
Daily Market Analysis
December 2025
SPY slipped 0.2% to $682 in a month that stayed close to its all-time high. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points but signaled only one more cut next year, and a 1.1% drop on December 17 was followed by a 0.8% bounce on December 18 during triple witching. Q3 GDP growth of 4.3% beat expectations as traders eyed a year-end seasonal rally.
A complete intraday market analysis for each day is listed below.
2025-12-02
SPY rose 0.2% to $682 as seasonal strength carried the market higher and the gap down was filled. Resistance sat at the $682 level, near the all-time high, with ADP carrying more weight.
1
2025-12-03
SPY gained 0.3% to $684 as 32K private sector job losses in ADP boosted rate cut expectations. Microsoft lowered AI sales quota forecasts, dropping the S&P 500 by 30 points and weighing on tech.
2025-12-04
SPY rose 0.1% to $684 as the market shouldered a weak ADP report showing 32K jobs lost in November. Futures priced an 89% likelihood of a rate cut, and jobless claims fell to 191K.
2025-12-05
SPY rose 0.2% to $686 as the market closed above minor resistance and held the gains. A Fed rate cut was expected next week, while program driven, choppy trading favored a few focused stocks.
2025-12-08
SPY dropped 0.3% to $684 as the market held near its all-time high ahead of an expected 25 basis point rate cut, priced at an 89% likelihood. China's exports increased 5.9% and imports increased 1.9%.
1
2025-12-09
SPY dropped 0.1% to $683 as light economic releases left all eyes on the FOMC. Resistance at the all-time high was stiff, and half of Fed officials did not favor a cut, hinting at a more hawkish tone.
1
2025-12-10
SPY gained 0.7% to $688 as the Fed was set to cut rates by 25 basis points and likely squash hopes for more. The all-time high at SPY $690 went untested, leaving a sell the news reaction unlikely.
2025-12-11
SPY rose 0.2% to $689 as the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points and signaled only one cut next year. It also announced $40B of T-Bill purchases over the next 30 days, which injected liquidity.
1
2025-12-12
SPY fell 1.1% to $682 as the market flirted with the all-time high before AVGO reversed its gains. The Fed's $40B liquidity injection and seasonal strength were expected to help push through the high.
2025-12-15
SPY fell 0.2% to $681 as upward momentum waned and sellers gained more control than they had months earlier. Daily market explanations were dismissed as program generated, and the Fed was seen planning only one cut next year.
2025-12-16
SPY dropped 0.3% to $679 as the delayed jobs report showed 64K new jobs for November, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%. An abbreviated October figure showed 105K job losses.
2025-12-17
SPY dropped 1.1% to $671 as the SPY touched the 50-day MA and bounced. Momentum faded into year end with the 100-day MA in range, and triple witching was approaching.
2025-12-18
SPY rose 0.8% to $676 as triple witching drove a trend day lower and the market drifted all day. Stubborn price action and mixed overlapping candles pointed to a weak trend with some buyers.
2025-12-19
SPY rose 0.6% to $681 as the market sat right on AVWAPQ where it started the quarter. Japan raised rates 25 basis points to .75%, with chop expected, and support at the 50-day MA and resistance at $681.
2025-12-22
SPY rose 0.6% to $685 as the market gapped up ahead of Q3 GDP and Durable Goods orders. Holiday light volume typically pushes prices higher into year end, though sellers had been able to move price.
1
2025-12-23
SPY gained 0.5% to $688 as Q3 GDP grew 4.3%, a full percentage point better than expected, but prices rose 3.8% against 2.7% expected. The S&P 500 fell 20 points and doubts about government data persisted.
2025-12-24
SPY rose 0.4% to $690 as the half session left the market 18 S&P points from the all-time high. Long positions in /ES and GOOG were managed for small gains, with a limit to sell above the high.
2025-12-26
SPY was flat at 0.0% and closed at $690 as seasonality favored a rally, with the market up 80% of the time over the holiday stretch since 1950. A 1.3% average gain would put SPY at $700.
1
2025-12-29
SPY slipped 0.4% to $688 as the year's final days arrived with the market right on the all-time high. Light news and window dressing were expected, with an average gain of 1.3% historically 80% of the time.
2025-12-30
SPY dropped 0.1% to $687 as a Santa Claus rally would push SPY to $700, a 130 point S&P 500 gain that seemed unlikely. FOMC minutes were due in the afternoon after hawkish rhetoric at the last meeting.
1
2025-12-31
SPY dropped 0.7% to $682 as the final day reviewed a good but not great trading year. Choppy early months limited trades, shorts paid off in the spring breakdown, and sold puts captured the bounce.
