Don’t Be An April Fool – Avoid the Noise – Free Option Buying Webinar Tonight

Tonight I am going to host a webinar. I will find 5 stocks that are great for option buying. CLICK HERE TO REGISTER Posted 9:45 AM ET - The market shot higher on Monday thanks to dovish statements from central banks. I mentioned in my comments that I did not embrace the rally and that I was staying on the sidelines. Here we are two days later - back at square one. All of the gains have vaporized and the SPY sits right at the 100-day moving average. The market is directionless and we are in the middle of the trading range. Prices could swing either way and this is a low probability trading environment. It doesn't happen often, but the jobs report will be released during a market holiday. Analysts are expecting 245,000 new jobs in March. If the number is "hot", we can expect a sell-off Monday. If the number is "cool" the market will rally because the Fed will have more breathing room. This morning, ADP reported that 180,000 new jobs were created in the private sector during the month of March. Analysts were expecting 225,000 jobs and this number is light. ISM manufacturing will be posted 30 minutes after the open. Official PMI's were little better than expected, but they were largely in line with the flash numbers last week. Traders are worried about a tiny quarter-point rate hike from 0% and we are in a "bad news is good news" environment. I believe this rationale is backwards and that the real concern should be global economic contraction. Central banks have flooded financial markets with trillions of dollars and economic growth remains flat. Everything that can be done monetarily has been done and central banks are out of bullets. Their statements used to pack a punch and markets would rally for a month or two on the news. Now, we are lucky to get a one-day rally off of a QE announcement. I sense that the tide is gradually turning. If economic conditions continue to slip we will be forced to go through a normal cycle. As that happens, credit concerns will surface. Years of money printing has masked underlying problems. The jobs report Friday should be soft and I am expecting a downward revision for February. This would be good for the market. Earnings season should attract buyers and the 100-Day MA should hold. I will comfortably take short positions at the high end of the range. The next rally could last for a couple of weeks and then profit-taking will set in. I am in cash and I will focus on day trading the rest of the week. Today, I will short the S&P futures if we trade below SPY $206 (100-Day MA). I will also use that as my stop. Keep your size small in this "noisy" environment. The pace should improve during earnings season so be patient. . .

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