Dovish Fed Can No Longer Lift the Market – Start Selling Put Options Today and Ease In

September 18, 2015
Author: Peter Stolcers, Founder of OneOption

IF YOU WANT MY COMMENTS BEFORE THE OPEN EVERY DAY - GET THE 1OPTION PLATFORM Posted 9:30 AM ET - The Fed left rates unchanged and the market pulled back on the news. I did not expect that and like most traders I watched in disbelief. I thought we would get a nice rally so I sold VXX and bought SPY calls. Both trades made great money, but I had to shut them down quickly By the close the market reversed and went negative. This was effectively a rate cut and the market could not even sustain a one day rally. Traders were prepared for lift off and now they will be looking over their shoulder every time a Fed official speaks. The FOMC has no faith in our economy. We've gotten to the point where Fed dovishness has absolutely no market impact. I don’t believe they will hike until March 2016. China has done everything it can to support its economy and market. Their growth is still around 6%+ the bid should strengthen. Domestic economic numbers are sluggish, but not horrible. The debt ceiling will not be a big factor. It will get raised at the last second and there will not be too many strings attached. I like the current conditions and I will sell puts. I plan to sell some today and I will scale in when I see support. I also want to sell VXX once this decline stalls. The next big news is Wednesday (Flash PMIs). Global monetary policy is dovish and there are is not a credit crisis. The market will find support in the next week and we will have a nice little year-end rally - perhaps to SPY $205 This is an ideal put selling environment. Start today and ease in. Look for stocks with relative strength. There is support around SPY $195 and that level should hold. Let the market probe for support today and start taking some positions with the intent of adding next week. Know that you might be early and that your positions could take a little heat. This is a quadruple witch so the action will be choppy. . . image

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