November 9, 2020
Posted 9:30 AM ET - The market rallied last week after the election on the notion that Joe Biden had a healthy lead and that Republicans would hold the Senate. That means that the Trump tax cuts would remain and that politicians could focus on getting a stimulus bill passed. On average, the market rallies 6% after the election. This morning we learned that Pfizer's vaccine is 90% effective and they want to start shipping it immediately. A vaccine is the ultimate solution to the virus and the S&P 500 will blow through the all-time high this morning. Travel and entertainment stocks are surging higher on this news and the S&P 500 is up 150 points. Economic data points have been decent and the economic recovery has been gaining traction. ISM Manufacturing, ISM services and the Unemployment Report were all strong last week. Earnings season is winding down and the results have exceeded lowered expectations. At a P/E of 23, stocks are fairly rich by historical standards. If the vaccine is wipes out the virus the economy will jump on pent-up demand. We bought the SPY on the open per my instructions Friday in the pre-open market comments. That entry point was approximately $350. I did not expect a move like this over the weekend, but I did expect the market to float higher and to challenge the all-time high in November. Under-allocated Asset Managers will be playing catch up. Swing traders can aggressively sell out of the money bullish put spreads now that we have a breakout. However, I would not chase stocks this morning. We will be looking for opportunities each day. The breakout at SPY $360 needs to hold and we want to see a close above it. We are likely to see a short covering rally this morning. Traders who sold out of the money call premium at the all-time high will take a lot of pain this morning when they buy back those calls. We have more clarity than we did a week ago and the market will return to a more normal trading pattern. Travel and entertainment stocks are likely to surge higher this morning and there will be good opportunities there. Take a deep breath and know that we will catch this move on our terms. Day traders need to be cautious on the open. I believe that the short covering rally will fuel an immediate leg higher on the open. There could be selling (profit-taking) later in the day. This is a monster move. I am not going to dive in head first. I want to see if there is profit-taking on the open. At some point today the bid will be tested. Stay fluid as always and use the 1OP indicator as your guide. I will be trading stocks from the long side, but there might be a couple of opportunities to short S&P 500 futures today. Support is at the previous all-time high and there is no resistance. . .
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