If the House Extends the Debt Ceiling Today – Market Rally Will Be Free Of Roadblocks – Get Long

January 23, 2013

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The market continues to push higher and we made a fresh five-year high yesterday. We are seeing a bullish pattern where stocks open lower and close higher. Shorts are not going to stand in the way and under allocated Asset Managers are scrambling to get on board.

Earnings reports have generally been good. GE and DuPont are helping industrials and IBM and Google are helping tech. Banks also posted good numbers and the financial sector will provide a solid foundation for the next leg of this rally.

All eyes will be on Apple after the close today. After a steep decline, any surprise would favor the upside. If this stock regains its footing, it will help the entire market. ALTR, AMGN, FFIV, NFLX, SNDK, and WDC are other notables after the close. This is the tech heavy day and the results should be better than feared.

Tomorrow morning CELG, MMM and UNP will post results. Chemicals and rails have been moving higher and the earnings will be market friendly.

We could hit a little soft patch overnight. Flash PMI’s will be released. Strength in China will offset weakness in Europe. Unfortunately, domestic activity could be problematic.

Empire manufacturing, the Philly Fed and the Richmond Fed have recently come in weak. Initial jobless claims declined 37,000 last week and we could see that number bump a little higher. This news won’t be alarming, but we could see a nice little dip on the open.

The market wants to move higher and this is the time to prudently scale into call positions. Be patient and don’t chase.

Evaluate the earnings reports and look for stocks that are in a nice uptrend. If they beat earnings estimates and they pullback on the news, wait to see if support holds. Use trend lines, major moving averages and horizontal support levels as your guide. Once the stock regains its footing, get long.

Growth in China is on track, domestic economic releases are stable, European credit concerns have subsided, bond yields are at historic lows, central banks are printing money like mad and stocks are attractively valued. The macro backdrop is very strong.

I am long calls and I have been adding for three days. The market should grind higher today, but I’m going to take a breather. If you are not long, you should be buying calls.

I believe the overnight price action will be soft and I will have an opportunity to add to my positions tomorrow. With every passing day, I am armed more information. I can get a good feel for earnings and guidance. Asset Managers will be doing the same and I believe the bid will strengthen.

The House will be voting today to extend the debt ceiling until May. It might not happen on the first vote. If the “can” gets kicked down the road, the market will be free of any roadblocks.

Look for opportunities to get long.
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