BUY CALLS – Wait For Support – Market Will Make A New All-time High
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Posted 9:15 AM - In October, 271,000 new jobs were created. I told you to expect a strong number, but this exceeded my expectations. The S&P 500 is down on the news and this all but guarantees a rate hike in December. Let this early wave of selling run its course and buy calls.
The best case scenario for the market is job growth and this number was strong enough to justify a rate hike. If jobs had only come in around 180,000, the Fed was still prepared to raise rates and the move could have been premature. Yellen probably knew the number was going to be strong and that's why her comments this week were hawkish.
Many Asset Managers have not participated in this rally. They are under allocated and they are nervous. Bullish speculators will get flushed out on this move and some might short the market. Once the dust settles, Asset Managers will recognize the opportunity and they will buy. The market will slingshot to a new all-time high and it could happen very quickly.
China's market is on the mend and their economic conditions are stable.
Domestic economic releases have been mixed. ISM manufacturing, GDP and durable goods orders were soft. ISM services was strong and this is where most of the job growth came from.
Seasonal strength will fuel the rally.
There is support at SPY $209 and I believe it will hold. There is also support at SPY $207.50. I urge you to look for stocks to buy during the first hour of trading. Wait for the SPY to make a higher low and then buy. Use that higher low as your stop. If you want to play it safe, wait for the SPY to get above the high from the first hour of trading – then buy.
In the unlikely event that we keep drifting lower throughout the day, stay sidelined. I'm not expecting this. I feel this dip will be very shallow and that a strong employment number will overpower a miniscule quarter-point rate hike.
This is the dip I predicted and it could be very brief. The market will slingshot to a new all-time high. Buy calls once support is established and hold over the weekend.
We need two or three more solid numbers like this. Keep in mind that this is only one number and that we are near all-time highs. I am trimming my size the rest of the year. I believe we could see a 30 to 40 point S&P move. Plenty of room to make nice money, but not a monster move.
Banks stocks will do great and you can buy calls on those stocks right away.
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