Friday: England In = New Market High and England Out = Market Correction

June 22, 2016
Author: Peter Stolcers, Founder of OneOption

Posted 9:30 AM ET Wednesday - The market is waiting for the outcome of the Brexit vote Friday morning. Four polls flipped from "leave" to "stay" this week and the market is pricing that in. The margin is still tight and the polls have been changing week-to-week. Traders are going to wait for the results and trading volumes will be extremely light today and tomorrow. I believe that the fear of what might happen to England's economy if they leave the EU is greater than the frustration caused by immigration. If England remains in the EU the market will breakout to a new all-time high and the move will be sustained. We are in the summer doldrums and the news is light. The market is searching for a catalyst and the Brexit decision is huge. England is the second largest economy in the EU. The market hates uncertainty. Janet Yellen spoke yesterday and the Fed remains dovish. Hillary is leading by a large margin and she is likely to be the next president. After the Brexit vote the market will have clarity and that is bullish. I am expecting a new market high if England stays in the EU. The price action will be steady and once we breakout we can lean on that breakout for support. Emerging markets should do well in this environment. If by chance England leaves the EU, global markets will be rattled. Credit concerns will surface and the SPY will test $190. There is no question that the downside is much greater than the upside. I am not going to carry any overnight positions into the decision. Day trading is very difficult. Stocks rally early in the day and they look great. As soon as the market momentum stalls, the bid disappears and the stocks pullback and flat line. Yesterday I got trapped in a bunch of stocks and I spent most of the day trying to scratch. All it took was one bad trade and I had a losing day. Keep your size small and your trading activity low. I WILL NOT BE POSTING MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY OR FRIDAY If England stays in the EU, buy stocks (or calls) and expect follow-through as the market breaks out. If England leaves the EU buy puts and prepare for a nasty correction. . . image

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