Apple Likely To Disappoint – FOMC Could Spook – Aggressively Take Profits On Longs

Posted 9:20 AM ET - The market is not been able to advance during the last week of trading. Earnings season has been decent and mega cap tech stocks will post this week. The FOMC statement is tomorrow and the volume will improve. Apple will announce after the close and I suspect a miss. I don't trade earnings so I won't be playing the move. The renewal cycle for cell phones is lengthening and I'm hearing that iPhone sales in China are soft. Google and Amazon will post on Thursday and those results should be decent. The Fed will not hike rates tomorrow. Labor conditions have improved and any language to that affect might spook investors. I thought we would get one more push higher, but the price action has been very sluggish. The market feels tired and it should have been able to grind higher when the strongest companies post results. My forecast is changing slightly due to the price action the last week. I feel that we could pull back for a few days and test the breakout at SPY $213. The market will regain its footing and make a halfhearted attempt at the current high before rolling over. August is typically a soft month. Credit concerns could surface and fear of a September rate hike will spark profit-taking. I have been suggesting that you gradually scale out of long positions. I would take some money off the table today ahead of Apple earnings. If the reaction to the Fed is negative tomorrow, I would exit the remainder of your long positions. I've been day trading from the long side. Yesterday was a classic example of what we do in the chat room. The early market dip made it easy for us to identify relative strength. I had 13 winners and 2 losers. On a down day I traded from the long side (every trade) and made excellent money. Two of my trades were $2 winners. I like closing the books every day and banking my profits. I have no overnight risk and I sleep well. This rally was fabricated by central bank money printing and I don't trust it. I've been making great money day trading and there's no reason to change. If you have $25,000 to allocate and you are available the first three hours of the day, take my free trial and I'll show you how we make money. Look for a quiet day ahead of the FOMC meeting. There will be some decent earnings plays today. I like buying stocks that are rallying off of a base and that have room to run. They won't need help from the market and these are the best day trading prospects. Be a little more aggressive with your profit-taking on overnight longs. The market has stalled and I expected better momentum during the last week. Stocks feel tired and the likelihood of a pullback increases every day that we sit here. . .

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