Sellers were able to reversed the gains from Wednesday, but we needed follow through selling Friday. This was a missed opportunity and it is a sign that buyers are interested at this level.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – The market is happy right at this level. Buyers and sellers are in equilibrium, and we are seeing two-sided price action. The big spike Wednesday was erased Thursday and the action Friday was similar. Sellers took control early and when they were not able to move the needle, buyers took over. August is typically a slow month and we are in a holding pattern. There will be key economic releases this week and they include the official PMIs, GDP (second estimate), ADP, ISM manufacturing and the jobs report.
The second GDP estimate is not typically a big market driver and the PCE component (inflation) is largely known after the first reading. Job growth has been steady and initial jobless claims have been in the 230K range the last four weeks so it should come in as expected. Wages grew by .4% last month and that could weigh on the market if it comes in at that level (or higher). The flash PMIs in Europe were weak in the middle of August and we can expect soft official numbers. China does not release a flash PMI and I am expecting weak results given other data points in August.
China has been trying to bolster its market with interest rate cuts. It lowered the stamp tax for stock trading and that sparked buying overnight. This news won’t impact the underlying economic issues they face.
Friday Powell said that we need to see a slow down in economic growth to tame core inflation. If we see a decline in economic activity, I believe that the market will fear that the Fed has gone too far and then we might see additional selling pressure. Until then, the market is treading water on the notion that a soft landing is likely. The remarks in Jackson Hole were deemed neutral to slightly bullish.
August has seen selling pressure and the bounce last week would have been hammered down If sellers were in control. That did not happen. Instead, we are seeing big bounces off of this support level and it tells us that buyers are interested. I am still neutral to slightly bearish, but I suggest keeping it small and favoring day trading. The lack of follow through selling is a sign that we should expect moves both ways this week.
Overseas markets were up and that is providing a nice backdrop for the market this morning. The SPY is trading above the high from Friday and that is a good sign for bulls.
Support is at the low from Friday and resistance is at the 50-day MA.