Tax Cuts Likely – Clear Sailing Until Dec 12th – Stay Long

Posted 9:50 AM ET - Yesterday we saw a rotation out of tech and into financials. As nasty as the action appeared, the S&P 500 was unchanged. It appears that the Senate will pass the tax bill tonight or tomorrow. The market will rally on the news. Once the tax bill is passed the focus will shift to the budget. Lawmakers will push the deadline back to January and it will coincide with debt ceiling negotiations. This process could get ugly especially if Republicans lose a Senate seat on December 12th (Alabama). If this happens Republicans will only have a one vote edge (51 to 49) in the Senate. Mark this date on your calendar. This is a binary event and it will have an impact. Democrats will want to flex their muscles and they will not budge until they get everything they want. The Senate needs 60 votes to extend the debt ceiling. Trump will play "chicken" and we could see a temporary shutdown in January. He will not let the tail wag the dog. As usual a deal will be struck at the last minute. Politics are driving the market. It has been typical for the market to price in a debt ceiling extension. Stocks will not retreat until a shutdown is imminent. That means we have time for a nice rally into year-end. The political backdrop will keep a lid on the rally. Swing traders should have a full call positions and they should use SPY $262 as a stop on a closing basis. We could see a nice rally tomorrow. Keep trailing the stop higher. Day traders will have an opportunity to scoop tech stocks today. Let the market established its direction and trade from the long side. Look for relative strength. This is just a bounce and I would avoid overnight tech positions into year end. Ride the wave higher and take profits when the momentum stalls. Apart from political mudslinging, the backdrop is bullish. . .

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