November 6, 2020
Posted 9:30 AM ET - This week the S&P 500 rallied more than 7% and that is a typical post-election reaction. Republicans will retain control of the Senate and the Trump tax cuts are likely to remain. The FOMC statement was extremely dovish yesterday and an interest rate hike is not likely before 2022. Politicians will return to DC next week and both parties have vowed to focus on a stimulus bill. The Coronavirus is spreading and small businesses need this lifeline. Seasonal strength will fuel the next leg of this rally and we are likely to challenge the all-time high in November. President Trump will contest the election results in key battleground states, but it's uncertain if the lawsuits will get beyond the state level. As far as the market is concerned, this will not have a major impact. The market only cares about the preservation of the tax cuts and a $2 trillion stimulus bill. The Coronavirus is spreading, but the treatment has improved dramatically and mortality rates are declining. AstraZeneca believes that it will be distributing its vaccine around Christmas. Many other biotech companies have vaccines in Phase 3 clinical trials. The economic releases have been strong this week. ISM manufacturing and ISM services were robust. This morning we learned that 638,000 new jobs were added during the month of October. That was better-than-expected (600,000). Earnings season has been good, but profits are down because of the Coronavirus. This is likely to impact Q4 earnings as well. Stock valuations are lofty at a P/E of 23, but investors are focused on a future economic recovery. Bond yields do not keep pace with inflation (negative real returns) and investors are forced out on the risk curve. Swing traders should buy the SPY at the open today. I believe that seasonal strength and FOMO (fear of missing out) will fuel the next leg of this rally. This week we are selling out of the money bullish put spreads on strong stocks. We will continue to do so now that the election is over and risk is lower. Focus on stocks with heavy volume, relative strength and technical breakouts. Option Stalker searches are designed to find these prospects. Last night I recorded a video and I showed you how easy it was to find excellent trades. Sell out of the money bullish put spreads below technical support and use that support as your stop. This is a low maintenance strategy. I like selling spreads that expired in three weeks or less so that accelerated time decay is working in my favor. THESE ARE THE STOCKS TO BUY NOW - CLICK TO WATCH THE VIDEO . . Day traders should look for wide ranges. In the last two days we have seen big moves in both directions. I prefer to trade from the long side and I mainly focused on stocks with relative strength and heavy volume. There have also been some excellent post earnings trades as well. During the day I am using the 1OP indicator to trade S&P 500 futures. I believe that the market volatility will continue for a couple of weeks and then things will settle in. This afternoon I will be looking for option lottery trades and we could have a good market tailwind. Support is at SPY $340 and $348. Resistance is at $351.70 and the $354. . .
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