Big Market Range the Last 2 Days and No Progress – Error On the Side of Caution

December 22, 2020
Author: Peter Stolcers, Founder of OneOption

Posted 9:30 AM ET - Yesterday the market tested an upward sloping trend line that dates back to November 6th and the 20-day moving average. News of a new Coronavirus strain in England dampened spirits and we saw follow-through selling from Friday's quadruple witching reversal. Buyers showed that they are still in control and the market rallied from support the entire day. The gap from the open Monday will be filled this morning and the S&P 500 is slated to open 9 points higher. A $900 billion stimulus plan has been approved by Congress and that was largely priced into the market. The bill was signed over the weekend and the news did not spark an immediate rally in the S&P 500. There hasn't been any progress on a Brexit deal and that could be disruptive to currencies/commerce in Europe. When traders return from their New Year's celebrations, they will be watching the Senate runoff in Georgia. A Republican win would be "market friendly" since it would preserve the Trump tax cuts. A Democrat controlled Senate would spark profit taking. The Coronavirus continues to spread rapidly and states are shutting down. Vaccines are being distributed as fast as possible, but most experts agree that they won't have a material impact until the end of Q1 (if they gain widespread acceptance). Stocks are rich at a P/E of 40 and a robust economic recovery is priced in for Q1. Any "snag" will spark profit-taking. Swing traders should manage profits on existing bullish put spreads. I don't plan on adding any positions and the Adobe spread from the video Sunday night was canceled yesterday morning when I saw the big drop in the S&P 500. Option implied volatilities are low and that is a sign of complacency. Bullish sentiment is very high and the market has been riding the upper boundary of the 20-day Bollinger Band. These are all warning signs and we will respect them. Day traders should look for early opportunities on the long side. Yesterday I added 4 new Heikin Ashi searches to Option Stalker that will help us find trades. Reduce your trade count and your size. Also set passive targets. The price action will decline dramatically the rest of the week. Thursday is 1/2 day of trading and Friday is Christmas. That means that today and tomorrow are the last two full sessions for the week. The calendar is light and there won't be much news to drive the action. Support is at SPY $362.50 and resistance is at $372.50. That is a wide range, but we have covered it in the last two trading days. This is a low probability trading environment so error on the side of caution. . . image

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