Daily Market Analysis

2022-12-19

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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09:02:41
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – Last week the market rejected the breakout above the downward sloping trendline that started in December and it breached the 200-day MA with ease. As the week progressed, hawkish FOMC comments pushed the SPY below...
09:02:50
Pete
Good morning!
09:13:43
Pete
I will trade when we have decent conditions for SPY. When the action is light, I am going to write. I am in the middle of a very important section that is going to keep me busy for at least...
09:26:30
Pete
09:28:06
Pete
If you have not read the article I posted this weekend on volume, you should. Don't just read it, understand it. It's easy to just skim over it and think... I get it. For some reason the importance of volume...
09:29:21
Pete
In the next two weeks volume should be the primary criteria you use in your stock searches. Without it, there is no trade.
09:53:59
Pete
The low from Fri is close and the bearish 1OP cycle is super deep. that means the downside does not present very good profit potential for SPY. If  we easily breach the low from Fri I will go with it...
09:54:41
Pete
I have been watching 1OP on D1 basis. That bearish cross signaled trouble and now we have confirmation. 
10:24:55
Pete
Light volume "inside day" with mixed overlapping candles. Keep it light
10:37:50
Pete
If you have one or two really good trades today, you can make decent money. That is how I look at days like this. If you have 5 or 6 marginal trades you will spend your time babysitting instead of...
10:40:31
Pete
Resist temptation and don't short on long red candles. Don't buy on long green candles. Almost all of those retrace on a day without a market trend.
10:41:58
Pete
If you have big winners today, you are setting yourself up for the big hurt. You want to keep it small and stay engaged. 
10:44:01
Pete
The set up I am looking for now is a lower high and a completion of the bullish 1OP cycle. If I get that, I will have something I can trade. If we make a new hod, I have new...
10:54:16
Pete
We are getting a bearish 1OP cross just as it tests zero. That was a deep trough and it barely got back to zero. I am looking to short here
10:57:59
Pete
Short ES 3865 1/2 position
10:59:40
Pete
We have 3 touches at the lod from Fri. On a light volume day like this they might try to shake out some sell stops at that level. 
11:03:18
Pete
Stop is at my entry price. target is $3855 for half of the position. 
11:27:19
Pete
This little bounce off of the low needs to fail right away and we need to take out the lod now. If I don't get that, I will shut the trade down. 
11:32:42
Pete
Lowered my /ES target to $3850 for 1/2 position. 
11:33:31
Pete
They made me wait for the breakdown and now I want more. Had to take greater risk and the failed bounce increases the chances of a breakdown. 
11:41:20
Pete
Exit ES for 15 pt gain on half of the position. $3840 bid for balance.
11:43:33
Pete
This is a bullish hammer off of the lod. No need to panic on shorts, but be very careful. This move could have simply been to trigger sell stops. We need follow thru or we run the risk of a...
11:44:43
Pete
We want to chip away at this bullish hammer (drift lower). If we follow that hammer with a green candle here the breakdown was just a fake breakdown and we have to cover shorts
11:46:45
Pete
Exit ES 8 pts
11:48:00
Pete
That was 11.5 pt ave on half position so a little over 5 pts on full position. That might be as good as I get for /ES today.
12:01:17
Pete
That comment about flat bottoms reminds me its time to take a break. Been sitting here too long and I believe support is forming.
12:03:09
Pete
They triggered sell stops and they could not get anything going off of that move. The lod resulted in a bullish hammer and then a green candle. That is a sign that the breakdown was a fake. 1OP is in...
12:05:13
Pete
There will be some short covering here (just bearish specs) but not looking for lift off. This should give me 15-20 min. If I return and we are back in the middle of the range, I am going to focus...
13:16:24
Pete
Lower highs and the market can't get off the deck. 1OP in a bearish cycle and we might see a better attempt to take out the lod here. Very compressed trading. I don't have a running start at the lod...
13:36:11
Pete
So let's see if we get that new lod here. The move was setting up.
13:56:42
Pete
This breakdown is staying down and this looks like a good short. I expect to see a drift lower. I am ready to short. I will be patient
14:34:57
Pete
Tiny bodied candles for SPY. Possible bullish cross pending, light volume. Good place to take gains on shorts... at least some. 
14:35:19
Pete
Not a great place to enter new shorts.
14:36:41
Pete
If this green candle is a "solo" it will reverse instantly and your remain shorts will work. You do not want to see another green candle here.
14:46:30
Pete
We all have expectations of what the day will yield based on the price action and volume. When you are happy with what you've made on a day like this, don't force it. If you give those gains back you...
14:47:18
Pete
That last green candle did not reverse and support is forming. You should be taking gains on shorts and you should not be taking new shorts based on what the SPY is telling us here.
15:19:30
Pete
It is getting late in the day, but there might be one more trade that is setting up. The market did not bounce during this bullish 1OP cycle. We need to see it complete, but this bearish cross is likely...
16:00:31
Pete
Not a great trading day, but certainly not the worst I've seen. Light volume pre-holiday trading is no fun. We had that nice little move set up mid-day and it produced. I will post a chart
16:10:47
DanW_SD
Hi all, I'm new here.  @Pete I just want to say thank you for everything you and @Hariseldon have done and are doing. I'd been a mildly successful trader for a few years but ran into trouble once the bear market hit....
16:15:06
Pete
@DanW_SD That is fantastic. Welcome aboard! I can't wait to unleash all of you in a bullish market. Members will complain that there are too many good trades being posted. 
16:18:21
Pete
The key is getting through the first half of 2023. Baring no credit issues (still possible) market support will start to form. I look forward to doing more swing trading next year. 
16:39:06
Pete
16:39:47
Pete
That is how the day played out and you will find that consistent with my comments during the day. I am trying to post these daily and we have quite an archive of them. 
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