Daily Market Analysis

2022-12-02

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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08:50:36
Pete
People have jobs. This is terrible. 
08:55:02
Pete
The rally has been "fluff". We could sense that from the light volume, the mixed candles and the lack of follow thru.  The rally Wed was driven by a short sqz. They were looking for a reason to sell and...
08:55:37
Pete
We are going to break the 200-day, the 100-day and the up trendline all in one shot. 
08:57:58
Pete
The 100-day is still a long way off.
08:58:54
layman
Pete wrote: We are going to break the 200-day, the 100-day and the up trendline all in one shot. You think breaking 100 day may happen today?
08:59:55
Pete
Probably not, but into the FOMC it will be tested. The wage component is the bearish part of the release. That is inflationary and the largest input cost for employers
09:31:19
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – As noted in my comments, I could not embrace this rally from a longer term swing perspective because of the price action. The breakouts did not have volume or follow through and that suggests that...
09:42:39
Pete
1OP is preparing for a bearish cross and we are < 200-day MA. I am ready to short. The longer I can hold off, the better. 
09:45:10
Pete
The ideal scenario is a wimpy bounce to the 200-day. That would give us time to line up shorts and to evaluate the selling pressure. 
09:46:57
Pete
Short ES 4035 1/2
09:47:36
Pete
I will short the other 1/2 on a new lod. Until then I am just going to watch the price action.
09:49:25
Pete
There will be many bullish specs who are trapped after the rally/breakout Wed. They are sitting on their hands now, but when we take out the lod, they will start to puke positions. Institutions know they are vulnerable and that...
09:59:15
Pete
Exit ES scratch. 4035
09:59:50
Pete
I wanted faster selling. Now I will wait for the cross and new lod
10:00:24
Pete
The reason I took the short early is because I felt there was a good chance that the bottom would fall out. It did not. 
10:01:11
Pete
The bid is still stubborn so I have time.
10:06:35
Pete
@#$% shitty volume and a compression. Pete wants to play.
10:12:59
Pete
So far there is no market bloodbath. The bottom did not fall out. Half of the green candle from Wed has been preserved and we are flirting with the gap.
10:16:10
Pete
We just crossed the 200-day MA and new hod. If we can get thru this 1OP bear cycle without any damage, we have to shift to a more bullish bias and the notion that the gap will fill.
10:34:31
Pete
We are getting through this bearish 1OP cycle well and with each passing bar it gets me more bullish. 
10:37:31
Pete
Long ES 4045 1/2. I will add 1/2 on a new hod
10:37:52
Pete
We should get a bullish 1OP cross in the next two bars
10:42:54
Pete
Looking to add to ES. market has been able to preserve the 200-day MA and 1OP has a bullish cross. The price action has been very choppy and that is keeping me from adding here. Want to get into the...
10:50:11
Pete
Long ES $4051 1/2 Ave price 4048
10:52:50
Pete
I don't like this choppy action as we try to get into the gap. I have a stop entered at $4043. I believe the trade will work. I have the 200-day MA working in my favor and a bullish 1OP...
10:55:39
Pete
I have my stop in place and I am going to work on other projects. There is not much to comment on. We are seeing choppy price action and I believe that will continue as we try to fill some...
10:58:59
Pete
If we can't get to SPY $406 during this bullish cycle I will exit (provided I am not stopped out)
11:32:55
Pete
Raised stop to $4048 (entry price). We are getting late in the bull cycle and we are still trying to make a new hod. If we pullback to the stop level I want to be out. This price action is...
11:35:05
Pete
Why don't you just take a nice 5 pt gain on /ES? We are right on the high of the day and we could breakout. All of the reasons I took the trade are still intact so i might as...
11:47:12
Pete
Offering /ES $4073. Pie in the sky. If they take me out quickly, they can reach for me.
11:52:47
Pete
I don't advocate trading /ES, but some of you will try. The idea behind offering much higher is that sometimes you will get a spike as the move unfolds. In this case, shorts will reach their breaking point and bullish...
11:54:56
Pete
I need a new hod in the next 2 bars or I will take gains. 
11:58:34
Pete
Exit ES 4063 for 15 point gain.
12:01:43
Pete
We barely made it to my target of SPY $406 during this bullish cycle. The price action today has been choppy. This was a wimpy rally with tiny bodies and mixed candles. 1OVol < 0, 1OP bear cross and we...
12:17:00
Pete
Lesson: The money I lost trading ES in a crappy market on Tuesday spends exactly like the money I made the last two days. I have more than recovered those losses, but they never should have happened. If I did...
12:22:19
Pete
I don't trade much right now - I don't have the time. I thought I could get cute and provide a little action in the chat room Tuesday. That was a big mistake. I need to be a role model...
12:32:49
Pete
I would be careful with longs here/
12:34:18
Pete
I have noticed that when we get close to a gap fill and it is "obvious" we will fill, there is a nasty contra move. Let this bearish cycle run and if there is no damage, reload on the next...
13:24:08
Pete
1OVol has dropped, 1OP around zero, SPY right at VWAP. wimpy market decline. The bounce lost its luster and this is a decent pullback from the hod. the market is not going to help or hinder here. You really need...
14:48:54
Pete
That nice big drop below the 200-day MA got me fired up before the open. I feel like the kid who opens the Christmas present they've been eyeing up under the tree and finding out it was a sweater. What...
14:50:38
Pete
TLT has been on a very nice grind. It is > 100-day MA
15:56:59
Pete
we could see a strong close and a move to the hod here
15:57:39
Pete
bullish 1OP cross and decent volume.
16:12:29
Pete
16:54:35
Pete
I've been in Russ' shoes this time of year a couple of times. The world was coming to an end and I was short. The world survived, I took heavy losses and I learned to NEVER swing short in November...
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