Daily Market Analysis

2022-11-15

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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08:35:50
Pete
75 pt rally from the close Mon. They like the PPI
09:05:26
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – Yesterday the market retreated late in the day on light volume. That is a reminder that sellers are never far away and that we can expect volatility. This morning the PPI came in at a...
09:41:21
Pete
Couple of long wicks to start the day tell me there is resistance
09:52:20
Pete
The early wicks and the drop into the gap tell me we have some work to do on the downside. I am not eager to short just because of the rally the last week. I am just watching for support....
09:53:36
Pete
If you are shorting, you want to see the opens from those long red candles hold.
09:54:25
Pete
1OP is on a bullish cross. That is another reason I am not very eager to short
09:57:21
Pete
Finding support at the high from Mon
09:57:38
Pete
This is a bullish candle
09:58:33
Pete
I am ready to buy
09:59:36
Pete
This candle has not completed, but it would be a bullish engulf
10:00:39
Pete
Volume is not particularly heavy so I am not rushing in. 
10:01:59
Pete
Long ES 4034 1/2
10:03:47
Pete
TLT is trying to get thru the high from last week
10:05:56
Pete
TLT tells us what traders thing about where interest rates are headed. A rally in TLT should translate into a rally in SPY so I would keep an eye on it. 
10:08:53
Pete
SPY is holding the open for the day and the gains from the gap. It is also holding the top of that green candle. This all looks good, but if it can't push thru in the next bar or two...
10:17:17
Pete
The longer this breakout takes, the further into this bullish cycle we are and the less likely I am to add to the long. 
10:23:21
Pete
Long candles both ways. Let's see who wins
10:26:43
Pete
I am ready to go either way. If we take out the lod on a bearish cross I will bail on the long and go 1X right away. If we take out the hod I will add the other half.
10:28:55
Pete
A gap reversal has been avoided. That would have happened by now and we would be well into the gap.
10:30:23
Pete
A gap up that is all "fluff" would have been pounded right out of the gate. Buyers are interested and the bid is stubborn even at these levels. 
10:32:54
Pete
TLT has been grinding higher. New hod. That tells you where institutions thing interest rates are going. Take your cue off of that right now.
10:34:11
Pete
I will add if we  can get thru $402 in the next bar
10:35:22
Pete
The volume is light and that has me erroring on the side of caution. It tells me this chop could last a while longer. On the CPI the volume was heavy. We are not seeing that here
10:41:54
Pete
10:43:38
Pete
Some of you might be too young to get the volume annotation. 
10:45:31
Pete
Where's the Beef?
10:53:24
Pete
Speaking of beef, this is what I call a meat grinder. We are whipping back and forth in a 20 pt range on light volume. 
10:55:49
Pete
I believe that any Fed speak today has already happened.
11:00:41
Pete
1OP is in a bearish cycle now so I will be watching  to see if sellers can get anything going. A new lod would force me out of my 1/2 long. Don't know that I want to short /ES given...
11:05:49
Pete
another long tail. Neither side can get anything going. I am offering at my entry price if we get back there. I am slightly more bullish than bearish so I don't mind holding a 1/2 position for a while. Perhaps...
11:35:54
Pete
Exit ES 4030 for 4 pt loss on 1/2 position or 2 pts. 
11:36:27
Pete
I've had enough of this back and forth and I will wait for some direction.
11:37:45
Pete
I have alerts set at the hod and lod. Until I get an alert I will be working on the new version of OSP. 
12:09:25
Pete
Typically when you have a tight range with lots of touches on the extremes and afternoon trade will set up. You just have to be patient.
12:16:04
Pete
Bearish 1OP cross coming up. Let's see if it can produce. Sooner or later one of these cycles is going to produce. 
12:17:20
Pete
This is like a scoreless football game and 1OP is the ball. Right now the bears have it. 
12:49:44
Pete
If you are patient you will have at least one really good trading window set up. It is most likely going to be a reversal. 
12:55:38
Pete
Still too early, but here is one I am watching for now.
12:55:59
Pete
12:57:46
Pete
We could see the opposite at the hod with a 1OP spike and a long green candle that pokes thru the hod and then reverses instantly. 
13:22:20
Pete
This needs to be a selling climax. We will know in the next 2 bars. If we bounce back immediately and recover more than half of the long red candle then we might have a trade. If not, we have...
13:24:13
Hariseldon
News: Talk of a Russian missile falling in Poland circulating 
13:32:39
Pete
Hariseldon wrote: Only a potential WWIII starting incident, no biggieRight. At least inflation is starting to subside. 
13:42:20
Pete
The market has not been able to come up for air. The stacked candles tell us the side to be on, but the last few have overlap. I am waiting for any kind of bounce especially at the lod from...
13:43:10
Pete
1OVol did get > 0, but barely
13:46:36
Pete
If you read my articles from this weekend you probably noticed the long tails and wicks. There was a lot of retracement into the previous body and that tells you that the move is not as strong as it appears. 
13:50:12
Pete
I would expect this move to test probe once more for support. This was a 40+ pt drop so we need to respect it. I would not be tempted to buy unless we make a higher low over the next...
13:51:30
Pete
I am not seeing the price action (stacked with no overlap) or heavy volume I need to get short. 
13:51:44
Pete
If this was serious, we would see heavy volume.
13:54:27
Pete
Just to be clear, when I say "serious" I am speaking in terms of market impact, not the loss of life. Of course this is serious news.
14:00:47
Pete
We have more information today. The drop near the close yesterday and the drop today dispel any notion that Asset Managers might have FOMO on a year end rally. If that were the case, we would have made a new...
14:08:35
Pete
Idan wrote: @Pete I think it's way too early to tell how the US and NATO will respond, though. Goldman Sachs is looking at their satellite imaging and talking to their contacts in the Pentagon. I don't need to guess what NATO...
14:10:29
Pete
There is a 1OP bullish cross. Not the kind I like. I want to see the blue dotted line flatten out.
14:13:29
Pete
Opreme wrote: AP changed their article title to Russia unleashes darkness on Ukraine with power grid attack, from Russian Missiles Crossed Into Poland, Killing 2Notice the timing of that news item. It was just as the market is testing the...
14:14:43
Pete
Long ES 3988
14:14:48
Pete
full
14:17:40
Pete
I am expecting volatility, but here is what I have working in my favor. 1. Support at prior day low. 2. Bullish 1OP cross. 3. Bullish engulfing candle off of lod. 4. The lod has held for more than 35...
14:25:16
Pete
The first 3 1OP crosses were benign. As I mentioned earlier, sooner or later they are going to click. 4 and 5 were golden. I missed the drop because of the timing. Based on what 1OP had been doing, I...
14:27:59
Pete
Exit ES 4000 for 12 pt gain on 1/2 of position. Holding the remainder.
14:28:25
Pete
I believe this move will get back to SPY $400
14:30:07
Pete
This sounds like a tragic incident, but it is nothing compared to the killing and destruction Putin has already committed. 
14:30:46
Pete
Not trading the news, just price. 
14:31:50
Pete
I have a stop in at my entry for the balance if ES.. I want to keep testing the new version
15:09:16
Pete
offering ES 4008 for remaining 1/2. Need that final push soon. Ready to take gains as 1OP gets a bit extended.
15:09:36
Pete
I will take gains in the next 10 min if I do not reach my target
15:18:41
Pete
Exit ES for 20 pt gain $4008 1/2 position. Ave gain of 16 pts on full position. Wait for your window of opportunity and sooner or later it will surface. I did not have to catch that drop. I just had...
15:36:45
Pete
The last 30 min will be telling. I am not giving much weight to the news that drove the market down. Are buyers excited enough by the PPI and CPI number to buy here? That news drop is going to...
15:40:06
Pete
If you are an Asset Mgr who has missed this move the last week and who was bummed out when they saw the reaction to the PPI, this is your chance!
15:41:04
Pete
If we see a rally here, there are some of those folks around. If we don't, no one is worried about missing a year end rally. 
15:43:35
Pete
If you look at the D1 chart, there is nothing impressive to look at. Lots of little overlapping candles here and sub par volume. 
15:48:28
Pete
TLT has a nice technical breakout D1 above a tight downward sloping trendline. Double bottom higher low and horiz breakout. It has room to the 50-day MA. 
15:53:35
Pete
I can already tell this is not the price action you would see if someone is trying to get long. We would have seen a steady grind and not this chop.
16:11:10
Pete
Days like this can be very frustrating. Big gap up and then incredible volatility early. When you see those long mixed candles, sit back and wait. They are a sign of volatility and directionless trading. Today we also had a...
16:28:51
Pete

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