Daily Market Analysis

2022-11-08

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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06:58:36
Pete
Good morning. I don't know if any of you traded that bullish flag from an hour ago on ES, but that was a nice bullish cross. I like the rally here and the follow thru to yesterday's move. 1OP is...
07:46:31
Pete
07:50:18
Pete
You will notice hollow bars on the chart. That is a new  feature I plan to add called Key Bars. They are long bars with short wicks/tails and volume. 
07:52:19
Pete
This will help you zero in on the most significant candles and where the current price is relative to them.
07:54:07
Pete
Long ES 3821.50
08:15:18
Pete
That was a retest of support. Still in /ES because of bullish 1OP cross, but close to stop.
08:15:47
Pete
Now I do have confirmation in the form of a micro double bottom higher low.
08:18:24
Pete
I don't have any major econ releases at 8:30 AM ET. Very important to check those if you are trading pre-open
08:20:51
Pete
Exit ES tiny gain. 
08:22:06
Pete
.25 pts. Just not getting the move. Overseas markets are slightly positive, but not much of a tailwind. This is also a tiny overnight move. We could have another "wait and see" day where traders wait for the election results......
08:44:41
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – There is a sea of bad news and a mountain of cash on the sidelines. Buyers and sellers continue to battle it out and the market has not moved much in the last two months....
09:17:16
Pete
I did miss a nice 1OP bullish cycle, but I knew what I wanted and I did not get it. 1OP is incredibly accurate for those of you who trade after hours.
09:37:02
Pete
Remember your mental mindset should be "this is going to be a dull day". That means you start off in defensive mode (not going to force trades). Only stacked consecutive candles with some height can change that mindset. 
09:38:18
Pete
1OP has a nice spike and it could roll over soon. We have a nice long red candle to start the day and the gap is filled. Let's see what if any follow thru we get on the bearish cycle. 
09:57:17
Pete
We have a bearish 1OP cross, but the blue (dotted) line is still rising. I prefer these crosses when the dotted line is flat 
09:59:11
Pete
Given the overseas markets, the after hours price action and the rally > 50-day MA yesterday I do have a slightly bullish bias today. I want to see a bearish cycle that holds SPY $380 and I would be looking...
10:26:13
Pete
Bearish 1OP cross and bearish hammer off of hod. Time to be careful with longs. I want to see half of long green candle fail, but probably will not short that given my bullish bias. I would need to see...
10:47:05
Pete
@#$% I missed the whole move waiting for 1OP to set up (or any other indicator). This is a typical mindset for many traders. This is a low volume rally with tiny candles and overlap. It will retrace at some...
10:47:28
Pete
10:50:05
Pete
Again, I am speaking in terms of ES or SPY. If you have the right stock, you can enter longs much earlier because rel str provides you with cushion. If you were wrong and the market backed off, the stock...
10:54:01
Pete
The mindset of #$%^ I missed something is very common for novice traders. It prompts them to enter trades too early. The seasoned pro does not look at it that way. They know that a better entry point will present...
11:03:59
Pete
This is a light volume rally and you can see that with 1OVol. It has been < 0 all day. The bodies are tiny and this move can easily be reversed. If the gains hold well and $382 is intact...
11:15:54
Pete
Long ES 3852
11:16:28
Pete
That is only a 1/2 position. 
11:23:52
Pete
I have a stop at $3852 (entry) and a target of $3862. This is a light volume rally. I am going to focus on some projects.
11:24:50
Pete
I need to hit my target during this bullish cycle or I will exit when a cross is near. 
11:34:19
Pete
Exit ES 3862 for 10 pt gain on 1/2 position
12:16:02
Pete
Compression near hod with declining 1OP a sign that we continue to float higher. Still need to wait for this cycle to run. One nice long red candle would excite shorts. If I see that I will be looking for...
12:16:59
Pete
In summary, the price action I see in the next 20 min will tell me which side I want to be on.
12:31:39
Pete
We should have a bullish 1OP cross in the next two bars. The market has been able to stay close to the high and that is bullish for the time being. I will be looking for that red candle in...
12:34:14
Pete
Long ES 3859.25 full position
12:34:54
Pete
That was the red bar turned green I was looking for.
12:36:15
Hariseldon
For those of you outside of the U.S. (or even for those inside) and you are curious about the impact of the Elections here is a quick breakdown - The market is clearly pricing in a GOP victory for the...
12:37:34
Pete
SPY 383.80 is a mental stop I am using. It is tight, but a red candle thru it is not what i want here. I am looking for a nice green candle in the next 2-3 bars. That would get...
12:42:35
Pete
@Hariseldon Agree with that assessment. If Reps win, we print more money. If Dems win, we print more money. Only difference is what we spend it on. The outcome has more of an impact on certain stocks than the overall market. 
12:44:42
Pete
That is the green bar I am looking for. Stop at $3859. I don't want to go back there. Target $3870
12:48:06
Pete
I want to see a new hod in the next 2-3 bars. There should be some tiny amount of short cov to fuel us to a new hod. There are also some buy stops at hod that would be triggered...
12:50:28
Pete
The fact that we have been compressing for more than an hour also suggests that the breakout will not be huge. That is why I have a fairly passive target of 10 pts. I will be taking gains on that...
12:53:44
Pete
Exit ES .25 loss on a stop. Time to take a break. There was a decent chance I would get the move I wanted here. Now that we have backed off, we might sit here for a while longer. 
14:29:56
Pete
That was an exciting move. I'm glad I got out of my trade. My internet went down again. Thank you Comcast. I am not shocked. anytime you have a light volume move like the rally you should trade it with...
14:30:37
Pete
You can see how the volume popped right up when we got the drop. That legitimized the move.
14:33:23
Pete
To my point earlier about #$%^ I missed the move, you had to treat that early rally with caution. You could not just assume that we were going to have a light volume election rally. The selloff we are seeing...
14:35:19
Pete
We are resting at the high from Fri and the 50-day MA is right here
14:45:10
Pete
I want $379.20 to hold. I am looking to buy a retest. The magnitude of the bounce tells me that there is support at the lod
14:56:52
Pete
I was looking for a quick retest and I did not get it. That would have allowed me to get long early in the bull cycle. A retest now would take 15-20 min and we would be at the tail...
15:58:49
Pete
In some cases posting publicly prompts users to be super selective and that is fine. In other cases it causes the trader to panic because they are worried that the trade won't work out. Before you post trades, post symbols...
16:01:58
Pete
Your added comments will help other members and it will help you to verbalize what you are looking at visually. This is all reinforcement of concepts and repetition. It will help you just as much as it helps others.

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