Daily Market Analysis

2022-11-04

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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09:30:40
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – This morning we learned that 261,000 jobs were created in October. Hourly wages increased .4% and that is a little “hot”. ADP was strong and initial jobless claims for the last 4 weeks have been...
09:30:50
Pete
Good morning!
09:39:44
Pete
Two stacked red candles is a bearish sign to start the day
10:12:33
Pete
Almost filled the gap and nice bounce
10:13:03
Pete
Long ES 3772.75
10:13:54
Pete
The long green candle that blew thru the open from the last red candle was a good show of strength. The bid has been tested and I like this bullish 1OP cross
10:16:32
Pete
I want to see the last green candle stay intact (at very least the open and ideally half of it) and then I want to take out the hod. If that happens quickly I will go 2X
10:22:44
Pete
If the market can't take out the hod in the next 20 min, the likelihood of it happening on this bullish cycle decreases. The big issue right now is volume. This is all light volume stuff. That needs to improve!
10:23:43
Pete
The light volume is also keeping me from going 2X. On this bounce I wanted to see a pop and I have not... yet
10:31:24
Pete
offering ES 3798. the light volume has me wanting to take gains. I do like the price action, but there is no substance behind it
10:31:51
Pete
Exit ES 3798 for 25 pt gain
10:42:24
Pete
now we are seeing a little volume on the last move. 
10:45:00
Pete
Given the bearish market downtrend longer term it is difficult to trust bounces. Sellers are never far away. We are getting pretty far into the bullish cycle and the best set-up for longs would be a benign bearish cycle with...
10:49:05
Pete
For those of you who favor the short side, we have a bearish hammer off of the hod and a bearish cycle pending. You want to see a long red candle thru the $377 level. For now, the 50-day MA...
10:53:43
Pete
Shorts. this is  the red candle we are looking for off the hod. 
10:59:04
Pete
@CCLXII You have to visualize the set-ups you want and then devise a game plan around them. When they surface you will know what to do and you will be able to act quickly. "The Great One" (no not Hari) was...
11:02:29
Pete
This is also why the key to the chat room is not "following". It is learning from others and by studying their entry and exits. By the time you look at the chart, enter the trade and get a fill,...
11:04:12
Pete
Shorts want half of that red candle preserved. Then we want another red candle below $376 in the next two bars
11:06:11
Pete
When we have two-sided movement like this 1OP crosses are deadly accurate.
11:37:36
Pete
Shorts want half of the long red candle to hold and it is. 1OP still heading lower so no threat of a cross. high from Thurs failed
11:39:41
Pete
I love feeling the electricity in the room and I love seeing all of these great trades. Congrats everyone!
11:50:46
Pete
Stacked red candles with little to no overlap through the low of the day. I wonder if this means something
12:06:34
Pete
When you have stacked red candles like this it is a sign of a strong trend. Even when we do get a bullish 1OP cross you should expect that a bearish div is likely. 
12:09:32
Pete
If we did not stack candles like this and if the lod was not breached, the bullish cross would have meant more and we might have been able to trade it based on the nice two sided action. Now that...
12:12:51
Pete
The only way I would trade the long side here is if we can get back to $373 with some gusto. I would not buy then. I would need to see us drop and find support above the lod (double...
12:14:09
Pete
A more likely scenario is a benign bullish cycle with little to no bounce that last less than 30 min. Then another leg lower to test the low from Thurs. 
12:19:58
Pete
12:21:19
Pete
I could not even post that chart fast enough. well we got right up to $373. Now we would need to see a retracement and a higher low double bottom. 1OP just crossed.
12:28:34
Pete
12:42:34
Pete
Hariseldon wrote: There are a lot of previously trusted signals that used to give one a good indication of the market's overall bullish/bearish disposition - TLT, IWM, UVXY, etc....but notice now they have lost a lot of their correlation ,...
12:53:27
Pete
This is where the rubber meets the road. We either get the next leg lower on a benign 1OP bullish cycle or we form a higher low double bottom. You can't just buy a 1OP bullish cross after such a...
12:54:42
Pete
For bulls we want to see a red candle turn into a bullish hammer and then we want to see the next candle be a nice long green candle back to $372. 
12:55:18
Pete
For bears, a red candle to a new lod that does not retrace on the next candle will suffice. We should get  follow thru on that pattern.
13:18:57
Pete
Those prior two candles could actually be bullish. 
13:19:43
Pete
If the last two M5 candles were combined do you know what they form?
13:20:06
Pete
On an M10 basis that would be a giant bullish hammer off the lod
13:24:46
Pete
Light volume and we are pretty far into this 1OP bullish cycle. Hard to get very excited about the long side here. It does look like support is forming. 
13:27:48
Pete
Long mixed candles and low volume tell me that we need to take a break until we close above $372 or below $370
14:46:48
Pete
That support took time to confirm and we tested the lod 3 times. That was a good bullish cross. I missed it, but I am looking to buy here
14:48:11
Pete
The whole rally today was based on a strong jobs report. Since when does that matter? We've had strong jobs reports for most of the year. 
14:50:22
Pete
Long ES 3747.50
14:52:08
Pete
I wanted to buy the half way point of that long green candle. Now the base of that long green candle has to hold. That is my stop and I need to see the top of that green candle breached...
15:01:59
Pete
I need a green candle here or I will take gains. We are late in this bullish cycle and I need to see continuation
15:06:12
Pete
Exit ES 2757.50 10 pt gain
15:07:26
Pete
We are right above the VWAP and we are not making the progress I wanted. With such big swings today, best to error on the side of caution
15:12:32
Pete
For shorting (and short lottos) we want to see the open of that last green candle fail. That would also breach the VWAP.
15:13:08
Pete
Until then, 1OP has a strong head of steam and no signs of letting up
15:20:53
Pete
We lose the VWAP and your shorts will work
15:21:05
Pete
i am looking to short ES
15:24:06
Pete
Short ES 3757 1/2 postion
15:24:56
Pete
I will short the other half below $373.90. 
15:25:42
Pete
This is a long red candle and it wiped out the previous long green candle. We have a bearish 1OP cross pending here.
15:32:51
Pete
Some great moves both ways today. I am bidding $3757 for ES and I am ready to stop the trade out. 
15:34:50
Pete
Exit ES 3767 for 10 p loss on 1/2 position 
16:01:34
Pete
Great day everybody. It is incredible the amount of money we can make when the market gives us something to work with. Great movement 
16:02:16
Pete
These are the days we wait for. It's too bad that we don't get 250 of them like this a year.

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