Daily Market Analysis

2022-11-02

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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08:42:58
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FED-DAY – Today the Fed will hike interest rates by 75 basis points and they will outline their plans for the next meeting. I can make equally compelling arguments for the market moving higher or lower so...
08:59:51
Pete
09:58:03
Pete
Bearish 1OP cross, but very tiny bodied candles. We are also < prior day low. The stock will have to do all of the heavy lifting.  
14:00:18
Pete
drum roll please
14:02:27
Pete
Long Short SPY $395/400 CDS for $1.65 and scratch
14:03:15
Pete
I expected better performance Mon and Tues and to be closer to the money prior to news so I am happy to scratch. 
14:07:21
Pete
I should rephrase I am trying to scratch that CDS and I am offering it. 
14:08:46
Pete
Press conf in 20 min. We could see some movement on that so let the excitement wane
14:10:32
Pete
The 100-day MA is still in the way. That was a pretty solid reject yesterday. Let's see if we can get thru.
14:17:28
Pete
Exit SPY Nov (11) $395/400 CDS $1.65. I was filled. 
14:23:15
Pete
The last FOMC statement we had a long red candle to start (60 pts). That entirely retraced  after the press conf started. The point being that the press conf  will be impt. Eventually the market did sell off, but there...
14:25:28
Pete
SPY $388.92 is the 100-day MA. That is about 30 pts away.
14:26:36
Pete
I like what I see so far. We have been able to hold the initial gains and the halfway point of the long green candle.
14:28:05
Pete
Long ES 3891
14:32:04
Pete
Time for the press conf
14:36:32
Pete
Exit ES 10 pts gain
14:37:47
Pete
That was flat out lucky. I had a 10 pt gain and watched it slip away once. I told myself I would take that gain if I saw it again
14:39:44
Pete
JayP wrote: Can someone advise a dummy like me if powells comments are hawkish or doveish, please. I feel sad listening to him, so im sure he's got a hawkish tone but im probably wrong (trying to learn this fed...
14:44:36
Pete
Based on the price action, Santa Jerry did not deliver. If the Fed wanted to instill confidence into the holiday they missed their chance. We would have seen a big lift off and we would be grinding to the 100-day...
14:46:06
Pete
TLT and the SPY are pretty much unchanged since the news
14:49:35
Pete
We've given up more than half of the long green candle and we have a bearish 1OP cross. The 50-day MA is the lod. If we take that out a short will set up.
14:50:26
Pete
Now the open from the long green candle is failing
14:51:12
Pete
Short ES $38.40
14:52:23
Pete
Exit ES 20 pts. 
14:52:44
Pete
That will be the last trade I post. It is moving to fast for me to type. I am favoring the short side
15:00:43
Pete
My best trade was my decision to set a target on the first long I took. That reversal happened instantly. I needed Santa to come down the chimney. When the market did not shoot higher before the press conf I...
15:01:50
Pete
Right now we have a D1 trendline breach and we are < 50-day MA. 
15:04:06
Pete
Half of the long red candle is being preserved along with the prior lod.
15:05:08
Pete
The wicks are getting smaller so buyers are not as able to drive the market up. 
15:21:30
Pete
Here comes the next leg lower. A close on the lod would not bode well for the market overnight. 
15:22:01
Pete
Short ES 3808
15:22:12
Pete
Posted that because i might hold overnight.
15:24:13
Pete
$3788 bid for 1/2 position
15:27:56
Pete
Exit 1/2 ES for 20 pt gain $3788
15:33:10
Pete
Stacked long red candles with little to no overlap on heavy volume. 
15:37:41
Pete
Exit ES 3788 for 20 pt gain on other 1/2
15:38:01
Pete
I've had my fun.
15:41:25
Pete
This is going to leave a nasty scar on the D1 chart. Jerry (the Grinch) stole Christmas. Just as the Fed can throw a curveball to the market, the market can send the Fed a clear message. 
15:49:24
Pete
The last FOMC statement reaction ended in a similar fashion on Sept 21. That move breached and upward sloping trendline D1 (although that one was higher quality than this one). You  might want to reference that bar and look at...
15:50:35
Pete
Make no mistake, the action today was bearish and it will be hard to reverse. The only chance the market had today was a softer tone. We did not get that. Asset Mgrs are not remotely worried about missing a...
16:22:48
Pete
16:25:50
Pete
That was how I played the reaction. The key for me was not getting the liftoff I expected at the hod on that bullish flag. I was looking for an immediate lift off and not to look back. Again, I...
16:28:33
Pete
The rest of the shorting was fairly straight forward. These are really hard moves to trade and I do not want to pretend that they are not. For me we started giving up that first long green candle and I...
16:29:46
Pete
That long red candle that I took gains on held the open. That was bearish and it gave me a really nice entry point to reload. Then the price action started to stabilize and the path lower was pretty steady. 
16:38:53
Pete
@Tide-Chaser TY. Trading after the FOMC is not something I would advise if you are not a seasoned trader. You absolutely do NOT want to have your P&L showing. You will have feelings of grandeur and horror in the same M5...
16:40:49
Pete
If you are not able to trade without stops, do not trade after the FOMC. Your stops will get hit no matter how wide they are and you will get filled at the worst possible price. 
16:54:28
Pete
Ruddiculous wrote: Question @Pete I noticed you referencing both 1OP and TA (preserving half a green candle) during the FOMC reaction. Is it advisable to use 1OP or TA like that in a news-driven environment?Good question. 1OP should have lifted off with...
16:58:30
Pete
Amaya_trade wrote: Question @Pete do you think we may have end year rally after today FOMC meeting ? I believe that we will NOT have a year end rally. This was a critical juncture and I believe we will see follow through selling...
17:34:35
Pete
1OP does have nuances and it does not always do what you would expect. For some people that is a flaw. To me it is a strength because it provides information that I can't get elsewhere. For instance, when the...
17:37:43
Pete
When something that should happen doesn't happen it is an incredible tell. When the market did not rally last Dec (and it should have) it was a tell that 2022 was going to get nasty. When the market did not...

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