Daily Market Analysis

2022-10-25

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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09:29:58
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – The market staged a low volume rally yesterday and it tested resistance at the down trend line and horizontal resistance at SPY $380. MSFT and GOOG will report after the close today and META, AMZN...
09:31:51
Pete
TLT alert. We are in the gap from Fri. That is bullish
09:36:58
Pete
We are racing right back up to $380. 1OP is in a deep trough. If we get thru $380 right away it will be bullish. 
09:47:15
Pete
Get long!
09:51:40
Pete
This is our best case scenario. We attacked $380 and we blew through it on a long green candle on the first attempt. This is what legit breakouts look like. They don't nibble away at resistance, they attack it. I...
10:40:19
Pete
We want to see a compression near the hod during this bearish 1OP cycle. No long red candles. If we can get thru this cycle we will get a nice bullish cross and a new hod.
11:28:47
Pete
We did get a new hod off of this bullish 1OP cycle, but I would like to see a bit more before it completes. It would be a sign that buyers are still fairly aggressive. We want Asset Managers to...
11:40:06
Pete
How do I know when to take gains? 1. we have a major D1 SPY breakout. It happened right out of the gate as we had hoped and we blew thru it. 2. Tech earnings will keep buyers engaged and...
11:48:52
Pete
CLICK HERE TO WATCH TODAY'S VIDEO
11:57:23
Pete
These are some tiny, tiny bodied candles on light volume. I would take some gains here. The exception would be if you have a stock that continues to march higher. I don't believe you will have much of any market...
12:55:27
Pete
From a bullish standpoint we do not want to get much farther from the hod. The more is looks like the market is rolling over, the better. That will attract shorts and they will be vulnerable to a rally. This...
12:56:48
Pete
I will be watching for a red candle that looks daunting and that finishes with a bullish hammer. Then I want to see a green candle after it and little to no retracement. 
13:14:16
Pete
1OP is still heading down, but I like that last green candle. Not quite an engulf, but a sign of support. I want to see this level hold and I want to see a bullish cross and another green candle...
13:15:06
Pete
We add another decent sized red candle from here and all bullish bets are off for me. This is a time to watch
13:25:22
Pete
This is the type of pullback in a bullish trend day I like. Find your stocks that have held strong and be ready to buy if we get a nice green candle in here to $383.25. 
13:31:11
Pete
Long ES $3855
13:32:16
Pete
This is the set-up I wanted. Two nice green candles thru $383.25 on a bullish 1OP cross. Mild pullback should get shorts excited and when they cover we will make a new hod.
13:36:56
Pete
My target is 3 pts higher than the Professor.
13:43:06
Pete
I am leaning on $382.50. I do not want another red candle here. 
14:23:35
Pete
I don't want to peck at the hod, I want a nice green candle thru it. That will squeeze shorts and it will trigger some (not many buy stops at the hod). If we blow thru, I will manage profits....
14:41:31
Pete
I want this green candle to hold and the open of it is my stop. I want to build on it. 1OP cycle is getting a bit extended so I need to see follow thru now. If I get it,...
14:43:15
Pete
Exit /ES 6 pts 3861
14:44:29
Pete
This is looking more like a "solo" breakout to trigger buy stops and the open from the green candle is failing. In a dull market with a 1OP bear cross pending this is a good place to take gains.
14:45:29
Pete
Now with a little more than an hour left the probability of profit taking also increases
15:29:32
Pete
New hod and 1OP bullish cross could be close. Maybe we get a push higher into tech earnings
15:31:23
Pete
Hari mentioned it earlier. As good as this rally might look, this is all optimism into earnings and a reluctance for shorts to stick with positions into the number. Once the results/guidance is out, the reaction could look very different. 
15:36:49
Pete
This will be a good little test of the bid. Can buyers offset selling pressure from profit taking? If we close on the hod the answer is yes. 
15:53:17
Pete
We have been able to hug the hod. I believe we will see a nice little 5 pt pop into the bell
16:02:21
Pete
... and now the moment you've been waiting for. 
16:03:44
Pete
GOOG is down 4%
16:04:16
Pete
MSFT down 2%
19:08:37
Pete
Shorts were afraid before MSFT and GOOG and the negative reactions will embolden them. 
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