Daily Market Analysis

2022-09-23

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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06:45:16
Pete
Futures tumbling pretty hard in the last few hours.
08:31:58
Pete
Short ES 3725.
08:33:08
Pete
I am trading the bearish 1OP cross and a compression after a small bounce. You can only see this if you have a futures data feed with IB or Ameritrade.
08:34:35
Pete
I will be bidding near the overnight low of 3717. This is a 1/2 position since it is preopen
08:35:19
Pete
Stop is around 3729
08:39:53
Pete
/ES 3725 stop at entry. I have some room and I can manage the gains while I write my morning comments.
08:43:35
Pete
/ES 2715 bid. If they poke thru the overnight low I will take the 10 pt gain and wait for the open.
08:56:52
Pete
Exit ES 5 pt gain. I just missed my target by a couple of ticks. 
09:05:52
Pete
According to purists, yesterday was not a doji, but close if you strip out the last 10 min yesterday. DaveW is enjoying his breakfast doji sandwich.
09:23:15
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – The S&P 500 is one nasty day away from the low of the year and we have a negative seasonal bias that will last a few more weeks. Central banks around the world are tightening...
09:38:55
Pete
09:39:33
Pete
This is what a capitulation low looks like. We do not see them often, but this is a super powerful (and reliable) pattern.
10:05:49
Pete
Nice steady selling pressure, but tiny little candles. Watching for compression. 1OP should cross soon. I am expecting a small bounce. The height and duration will help us determine the bid and any pause/bounce will make it easier to find...
11:41:32
Pete
Not much to report market wise. Gap n go n stall.
11:51:15
Pete
It took me 15 min to annotate this chart. Thought we might see a similar pattern, but we already made a new lod
11:51:35
Pete
11:58:16
Pete
If you look at the green bars today you will notice that those candles were immediately spanked down. That is a sign of aggressive selling. They are playing wack-a-mole.
12:06:19
Pete
It might look like 1OP is going to cross, but I believe it will just keep sinking lower. It has barely crossed the zero line so it has more room. This cycle has been steady. No threatening candles and no...
12:52:16
Pete
The last candle closed above the open from the prior long red candle and we have a bullish 1OP cross so good place to take some gains 
13:05:11
Pete
This is a fairly sizeable bounce. That matters because it will take a fair amount of time to run its course and it is also a sign of support.  
13:10:21
Pete
So we want to see this bounce stall right here and then a bearish cross. We are compressing so it looks like resistance is building here.
13:25:39
Pete
I know we have a lot of shorts here and my job is to remain objective and to tell you what I see. Bears want a nice long red candle to $366.15 to start this bearish cycle. That is the...
13:26:13
Pete
Typically, a move of this magnitude will win. 
13:26:26
Pete
That favors the downside.
13:29:42
Pete
If I see something bullish happening (no signs) I am not going to hesitate to post it in fear that it might go against your positions. Of course I will post if I see something bearish as well. 
13:30:08
Pete
That is the candle we wanted to see off of this bounce
13:31:43
Pete
We want the halfway point of the red candle to hold and we do not want to see any bullish hammers as we move towards the lod.
13:41:59
Pete
Nice. You can see how half of the long red candle was tested and then that green candle was immediately followed by a red candle. Now we are probing deeper. This is the kind of follow thru we want.
13:54:49
Pete
This is not the kind of follow thru we want. When we test the low of the day we want to attack it aggressively. When we tick lower and pause it is a sign that the bid is growing. 
13:55:15
bobl0blaw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVgXiqPG4mw - fed in 5 min
13:55:46
Pete
That could be why we are compressing. TY bob
13:56:48
Pete
You have to wonder  what more they could possibly say that would add color to their comments 48 hours ago. Is there some incredible new information?
14:15:22
Pete
That is the kind of attack we wanted  to see on the lod. They were waiting for the speech.
14:16:12
Pete
There is really no support until the loy  so we don't have to worry about headfakes. Just need nice steady decline. 
14:27:07
Pete
careful with this 1OP bullish cross. we don't want to go close $365
15:05:12
Pete
This is a very long green candle. Engulfed many others and it will be hard to hammer down. 
15:06:36
Pete
If it immediately reverses that would be a sign that it is just a solo sht sqz
15:10:44
Pete
Hariseldon wrote: Exit SPY Puts with $2.05 Profit That was an excellent move! the candles were tiny and this was a marginal new low. 1OP was crossing and this late in the day smart to take gains. 
15:45:14
Pete
This is a nice bounce and the green candles are stacking. 1OP not close to crossing
16:21:50
Pete
16:22:50
Pete
16:23:50
Pete
16:24:50
Pete
16:25:50
Pete
Just a reminder I will be out Mon and Tues and I will not post market comments. What do these charts tell us? 
16:26:50
Pete
Currently H1 is in a bear div. That means we should stick with the bearish side H1 until we get a bearish cycle that does not produce. H1 will have a bearish cross soon and we want to see that...
16:27:50
Pete
In general, all of the cycles and crosses are coming off of bear divs or producing bear cycles and that means that we should see downward pressure Mon and Tues. If by chance these M30 and H1 bearish cycles run...
16:28:50
Pete
Trade well.
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