Daily Market Analysis

2022-08-30

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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09:30:00
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY –Long red candles off of a relative high don’t lie. If you look back at the chart for this pattern you will see that there is follow through selling. It might take a few days or...
09:31:00
Pete
09:31:56
Pete
My goal for this room is to focus on a proven method. I have traded it for 20 years and Hari and DaveW prove that it works every single day. Yet, many traders are tempted to introduce new concepts and...
09:33:15
Pete
Once a Cat and a Fox were traveling together. As they went along, picking up provisions on the way—a stray mouse here, a fat chicken there—they began an argument to while away the time between bites. And, as usually happens...
09:34:43
Pete
Better one safe way than a hundred on which you cannot reckon. A cat goes up a tree and gets away while a fox is caught trying to figure out what to do. Better one safe way than a hundred...
09:36:26
Pete
Market has not been able to hold the gap up so far. 1OP is elevated. 
09:45:30
Pete
That gap caved in and filled instantly. 1OP has not even crossed yet and this cycle could take us to the low from Mon
10:08:26
Pete
That gap reversal had a high probability of happening. I explained why before the open. The only possible snag was eom buying and it did not materialize. We also have follow thru and we are early in the cycle. 
10:11:56
Pete
Dave W wrote: SPY nearing 50Yes. This is a good level to take some gains if we stall at all.
10:40:56
Pete
Does this pattern bring back any memories? It should. FOCUS ON THE SHORT SIDE AND DO NOT GET CUTE WITH LONGS!!!
10:42:19
Pete
You can take gains on short positions and reload, but the last thing on your mind should be trying to predict a bounce. After heavy selling like this, support will be a process. It will take a long time to...
10:44:01
Pete
The lack of any substantial bounce is a clue that the selling pressure is heavy. We blew right thru the 50-day MA on the first attempt.
10:46:15
Pete
So when you do take gains, Evaluate the magnitude and duration of the bounce. If it lasts less than 30 min and if the bounce can't get more than half way up a long red candle, the next leg lower...
11:37:42
Pete
Short SPY$398.90. I did a trade in the video so might as well post it here. Only 1 contract, but wanted to convey the mental mindset of why I would be comfortable shorting even if it is early. I am giving...
11:38:08
Pete
I will post a follow up exit for this one. Rendering video now. 
11:39:50
Pete
You will notice that unlike Friday, this bounce is lasting longer than any we had that day. The retracement has also been higher. Compared to Fri that means I have to temper my expectations on the downside. I am less...
11:52:14
Pete
Now that I have some signs of selling, I don't want to go back to my entry (and I do not believe we will). I will place my stop at my entry. 
11:53:21
Pete
Why? First of all I am trading /ES, not stock so I have to be more careful. Secondly, a bounce back to my entry lengthens the elapsed time for this bounce. The longer it lasts, the more conviction buyers have.  
11:54:23
Pete
Thirdly I have a bearish 1OP cross and I want it to produce. I can always get back in. 
11:56:41
Pete
Exit SPY scratch. 
11:57:56
Pete
No worries. The bounce is lasting longer than I expected and that is a sign of strength and that I should not expect the same price action as Friday. 
12:31:01
Pete
Short SPY $398.50
12:32:10
Pete
This has been a fairly long bounce and I am not looking for a monster move down. We have been compressing and the action is slowing down 
12:32:58
Pete
The bearish hammer off of the relative high was the first clue. 1OP is drifting lower, but close to zero so not much help. 
12:35:49
Pete
This drop needs to continue now that there is blood in the water. I do not want a bounce because it would tell me that we are going to just chop around. I have my stop set at my entry....
12:37:50
Fox
@Pete i am going off the heiken ashi SPY green candles being all wicky (weak up) whilst reds have been flat top (strong down). with the drifting bearish 1op cross and chose Qs over ES as tech stocks still a bit...
12:38:16
Pete
Agree
12:43:26
Pete
Snakebight wrote: Fox wrote: @Pete i am going off the heiken ashi SPY green candles being all wicky (weak up) whilst reds have been flat top (strong down). with the drifting bearish 1op cross and chose Qs over ES as tech...
12:46:53
Pete
Exit SPY for $1.00 gain on 1/2 of position and holding the other half with a target of $396.50.
12:48:26
Pete
Very important! This is not Friday!!! The price action to this point is already telling us not to expect similar price action. Friday the market was not able to come up for air and the bounces did not last more...
12:53:37
Pete
My stop on the other 1/2 is my entry price. Now that I took some gains, I can let the rest ride without even thinking about it. 
13:25:01
Pete
Exit SPY $1.90 gain. I don't need to squeeze every penny out. $1.45 ave gain
13:28:30
Pete
When I exit near the lod I have two choices. I either take gains just before the lod or I set a target way below on the notion that you might hit an air pocket. When the move inches its...
14:20:23
Pete
englishsummer wrote: traders are circulating comments by WH Jean- Pierre in regards to expect job numbers to cool off -- Keep in mind this was out yesterday and posted in NewsDesk -- looks like a recirculation of comments ADP revamped the...
14:22:48
Pete
1OP bearish cycle about to start. Might this one push us to a new lod? Probably not. The bounce has lasted a long time and that last bullish engulf off of the lod was a sign of support. 
14:24:55
Pete
Based on the price action to this point, I feel that the lod is going to hold. The next bearish cycle could be benign and we will float back up to the 50-day MA on the final bull cycle and...
14:33:47
Pete
Right now your brain should be saying, "You've had a great day, keep what you made, the patterns are not there, we are in pre-holiday mode, error on the side of not trading the rest of the day. 
14:34:23
Pete
That last red candle probably got your juices flowing on the short side. It reversed instantly.
14:38:55
Pete
On these moves where we have strong momentum and then we stall it is common to see something I call the "meat grinder" at the end of the day. We are in a wide range. Once minute it will look...
14:40:06
Pete
This is especially true on market drops because there is more movement. When we get this pattern on a rally, we tend to stay in a tighter range at the hod and the wiggles are not enough to excite. 
14:40:53
Pete
The long green candles that immediately followed the red candles near the lod are a sign of support and they will keep short sellers at bay. 
14:48:51
Pete
14:58:34
Pete
On days when we can stack 3 or more consecutive candles of the same color on decent volume, you have the momentum we need. If you don't have that, scale back. On days when we are trapped in a tight...
16:04:51
Pete
16:18:41
Pete
RPro wrote: @Pete how did the price action convince you we will close near SMA?We actually did not close as close to it as I thought we might. Those major moving averages are like magnets. The low of the day was...
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