2026-03-02
SPY gained 0.1% to $686 as US and Israeli airstrikes in Iran sent oil futures higher and the S&P 500 down 70 points overnight. Attention stayed on the depth and duration of the drop.
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Daily Market Analysis
March 2026
SPY lost 5.2% to $650 as the war in Iran and elevated oil prices weighed on stocks. The Fed signaled only one rate cut this year, and the market broke down from its range to close below the 200-day moving average for the first time in 10 months, with a 1.8% drop on March 26. A 2.9% bounce on March 31 ended the month.
A complete intraday market analysis for each day is listed below.
2026-03-03
SPY dropped 0.9% to $680 as a big gap down was expected to stick. A wimpy bounce would offer a shorting opportunity, and consecutive stacked green candles in the first 30 minutes would signal a tall bounce.
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2026-03-04
SPY gained 0.7% to $685 as the market probed support for a second day and bounced again. SPY moved back above the 100-day MA, suggesting buyers were not concerned with the war in Iran.
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2026-03-05
SPY dropped 0.6% to $681 as the market sat between the 100-day and 50-day MA ahead of the jobs report. A steady decline with stacked reds was needed to favor shorts, and a wimpy move lower could reverse.
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2026-03-06
SPY fell 1.3% to $672 as the war in Iran was seen as a catalyst for a decline but not the cause. Weakness predated the war, with stalled momentum and moving averages catching up to price.
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2026-03-09
SPY gained 0.9% to $678 as the market broke out of its horizontal range. Oil prices spiked, the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed, and a much worse than expected jobs report left investors nervous.
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2026-03-10
SPY slipped 0.2% to $677 as the market posted consecutive closes below the 100-day MA, a first in a long while. Buyers stayed engaged despite a weak jobs number, and investors were not in panic mode.
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2026-03-11
SPY fell 0.1% to $676 as the market's two week slide stayed stubborn with each large drop scooped up. The CPI was benign, and pricing assumed a quick resolution to the war in Iran.
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2026-03-12
SPY fell 1.5% to $666 as a benign CPI went unbelieved and oil prices stayed high with the Strait of Hormuz closed. Half of the prior long green candle was being retraced before the open.
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2026-03-13
SPY fell 0.6% to $662 as Q4 GDP was revised to .7% growth from 1.4%, well below Q3's 4.4%. The war stayed the primary focus, with the Fed deciding on rates next week.
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2026-03-16
SPY rose 1.0% to $669 as the market bounced and oil prices retreated. Economic conditions were softening and the Fed was hawkish, with higher oil prices expected to keep it sidelined.
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2026-03-17
SPY gained 0.3% to $671 as the market lacked a strong trend ahead of the FOMC. The morning gap up retraced while the prior high held, and several stock positions needed to finish above set price levels.
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2026-03-18
SPY slipped 1.4% to $661 as overnight gains ahead of the FOMC statement were quickly erased. Israel killed two Iranian leaders, oil spiked, and core PPI rose .5% against .3% expected.
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2026-03-19
SPY fell 0.2% to $660 as the market breached the 200-day MA after the Fed said it plans to cut rates only once this year. Hot CPI and PPI readings and elevated oil kept inflation concerns high.
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2026-03-20
SPY dropped 1.7% to $649 as the market closed below the 200-day moving average. Negative headlines, a weak February jobs report, a downward GDP revision and elevated oil prices fed bearish sentiment.
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2026-03-23
SPY gained 1.1% to $655 after last week's first close below the 200-day MA in 10 months. Triple witching may have exaggerated the selling, though the breach was still seen as a bearish sign.
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2026-03-24
SPY dropped 0.3% to $653 as the Iran war grabbed headlines. Trump ordered a 5 day cease fire during negotiations, while high oil, a hawkish Fed and vulnerable credit conditions kept the backdrop fragile.
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2026-03-25
SPY rose 0.6% to $657 as light headlines and a cease fire left the market with support. Staying below the 200-day MA for a week signaled persistent selling, yet a bounce was expected.
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2026-03-26
SPY slipped 1.8% to $645 as the Iran war remained the only news and oil stayed elevated with the strait shut. Overseas markets fell about 1%, and an M15 wedge pattern pointed to a weak open.
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2026-03-27
SPY dropped 1.7% to $634 as a gap down brought persistent selling with no bounces. High P/E and tech stocks were weak, the luster of AI dulled, and higher oil prices kept the Fed sidelined.
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2026-03-30
SPY dropped 0.3% to $632 as selling pressure accelerated with no news behind the morning bounce. Trump threatened to destroy Iran's infrastructure absent surrender, and more bombing could lift oil prices and inflation concerns.
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2026-03-31
SPY rose 2.9% to $650 as an unexplained overnight bounce followed shorts taking profits. Implied volatilities were sky high, the war and Trump's deadline loomed, and past declines featured deep drops and tall bounces.
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