2022-09-08

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08:30:19 Pete	ECB did go 75 basis points. That should be bearish. Watch the futures reaction
09:31:10 Pete	PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY � The ECB raised rates by 75 basis points this morning and the S&P 500 is giving back some of the gains from yesterday. This was on the high side of expectations and it signals that...
09:35:15 Pete	Short SPY $394.50. Only 1/4 position
09:38:35 Pete	My rationale for taking a small early position is that the SPY has been ticking down since the ECB announcement. I want a little bearish exposure in case the bottom drops out. I don't have a stop and I will...
09:41:54 Pete	Dave W wrote: ISEE strong againOne thing you will notice about DaveW is that when the market is down big, he will try to find early strength. If a stock can move higher with this backdrop, it is a possible...
09:45:12 Pete	For a bearish trend day, we don't want to get too much above this level and for sure we do not want to fill the gap. That would validate the rally yesterday and it would be a sign that buyers...
09:46:27 Pete	A "solo"  green that retraces quickly would signal that this is to flush out eager shorts who pounded the open.
09:58:29 Pete	1OP is going to cross soon, but I would be patient with shorts. Why? That was not a solo green candle and we did have follow through. If it was just to shake out early shorts, it would have reversed...
10:01:49 Pete	I won't add to the SPY short until we chew up half of that green candle ($395.80) and the longer this bounce lasts,  the greater the odds that I am on the wrong side of the move. That is why...
10:02:56 Pete	I want to see some tiny bodied candles and some nice wicks. Compression at the hod with a bearish 1OP cross is what I want.
10:10:25 Pete	Red candle is nice, but it has been almost completely retraced. Buyers are still testing the ask. I want to see less retracement.
10:11:36 Pete	1OP should cross on the next bar. Then we will see how well this bid holds up. To this stage, it is fairly bullish.
10:23:35 Pete	Gap fill and the odds of a bearish trend day are minimal. Buyers have shown that they will defend this level and they were not spooked by the ECB rate hike and that they expected it. I will be looking...
10:24:38 Pete	We finally got the bearish cross.
10:26:24 Pete	To stay in this short, we need to stack red candles and I do not want to see much retracement if we get a nice long red candle. The red candle we got 30 min in was quickly retraced.
10:27:54 Pete	If we preserve $396 during this bearish cycle I will cover my short and pivot to a long.
10:31:04 Pete	If you look at the D1 SPY chart (and we closed right here) it would be bullish. We held half of the long green candle, tested it and closed near the close of that green candle. Still lots of trading...
10:40:32 Pete	This is bullish price action and I am looking to cover my 1/4 short and go long
10:43:45 Pete	Exit SPY $4.50 loss.
10:44:37 Pete	1/4 position so $1.25 on normal position.
10:47:25 Pete	I have 21 pts to make up, but I am confident we are going higher. We are starting to stack candles and we blew through the gap an hod from Wed.
10:48:46 Pete	The 21pts includes yesterday so you will get to see me dig my way out of a hole.
10:51:53 Pete	The key is not to be patient and not to add to the problem. Wait for your set-up. Often these losses will shed new light and you will make your money back. In this case I did not give the...
10:52:47 Pete	This is a bullish div and I am not getting much of a pullback.
10:57:44 Pete	Long SPY $399.60 full position
11:02:36 Pete	SPY stop $399.70
11:03:49 Pete	I have some breathing room, I can't lose money on the trade and I should have a nice bullish cross. In this particular case, 1OP never got < 0 and that is bullish. We are also stacking green candles with...
11:07:40 Pete	Raised SPY stop to $400.
11:08:16 Pete	Now we know this is a gap reversal and a bullish trend day is likely.
11:17:33 Pete	SPY. I am ready to take gains. Candles are getting pretty compressed.
11:19:02 Pete	Exit SPY $1.00 gain
11:20:02 Pete	Now I have 11 pts to make up. I know I want to be long. This rally and ECB reaction sets up well for Fri also
11:26:11 Pete	How will I know when to buy? 1OP should cross back down. I would like to see the SPY gradually retrace. No stacked red candles. $399 has to stay intact. mixed overlapping candles  and tiny bodies is what I want...
11:37:14 Pete	This is the type of SPY price action that supports being long. Compressing at hod when 1OP dropping. Confirms the bullish div. I will still wait for the cycle to complete.
11:52:26 Pete	This SPY bleeding needs to stop here for me to consider a long. This is fairly organized and we have drifted a fair distance from the hod
12:00:27 Pete	I am looking to buy SPY here. I need to see $399 hold. I would like to see another bullish hammer and I still need that 1OP cross. I might not get the cross for 10-15 min so need to...
12:02:19 Pete	LOL. That is why we wait. This is one heck of a long candle and I suspect news
12:03:01 Pete	Short SPY $398.10
12:04:32 Pete	That is a full postion. Stop is $398.30. Willing to give it a little room
12:06:37 Pete	When I say I "suspect" news it is because I do not use any news feed tv or radio. I watch price and I know when there is news.
12:07:12 Pete	This drop is going to have follow thru
12:08:59 Pete	Exit SPY $2.00 gain.
12:09:50 Pete	I still think we go lower on this move, but wanted to show you how I would work my way out of a hole.
12:12:03 Pete	Hariseldon wrote: I have to admit - this thesis was one of the harder ones I had to drawdown on - but I gave it all the way to the 50 Day SMA and held short the entire time.Balls of...
12:29:44 Pete	This is where trading can be a mental mind game. You have a thesis and you are proven wrong. You adjust and you might even flip based on the price action. This should actually be a process (it should not...
12:33:21 Pete	There is some Fed speak this week so I figure that is probably what caused the drop. Some of you with news can confirm
13:27:24 Pete	HelloMountain wrote: Question With the sensitivity that this market has shown to certain news, would Pro traders be monitoring things like Queen Elizabeth's health (very ill at the moment)? Would her eventual death have any impact on the US market?The...
14:45:23 Pete	This price action turned to mush. These long red candles have no volume behind them. That is how you know they are NOT news. There would also be no retracement.
14:46:51 Pete	Might the SPY roll over on this 1OP cross? Sure, but it is not news related. I just want to make that distinction.
14:48:13 Pete	This could  actually be a nice little bull trap. Compression breakout to the upside to lure in bulls, then slam the door, break the lower end of the compression and flush them out for a loss.
14:55:51 Pete
14:59:38 Pete	1OP adds so much clarity to what is happening below the surface. It is like fishing with polarized glasses.
15:03:43 Pete	If you did not have 1OP you could look at that as a legit compression breakout. The market recovered from the early drop and after a pause it is ready to challenge the hod. Instead you view that compression breakout...
16:01:58 Pete	As I mentioned earlier in the day, if we closed right here, this is short term bullish. The market was able to weather that news and it bounced right back. On the D1 chart the SPY tested the half way...
16:04:25 Pete	We are about 10 pts from the 50-day MA and 20 pts from the 100-day MA.
17:14:31 Pete	st0rm wrote: There is a record number of SPY puts purchased for this Friday's expirationMaxPain for SPY on 9/8 is $397. That is where the max calls and puts expire worthless.
17:16:07 Pete	You can use that MaxPain tab in OS for any stock or index. It is a theory as well. It only seems relevant when it is very close and then the stock/index can be pinned.
17:29:54 Pete
17:30:45 Pete	That is 1OP on SPY M30. I would say it works pretty well for swing trading
17:56:13 Pete