Economic News This Week Was Soft. At Best the Market Will Tread Water. Chance For A Small Decline

May 17, 2013

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The market wants to move higher, but the momentum is starting to slow down. Economic releases have missed expectations and that should temper excitement. The news is very light next week and trading volumes will drop off as we head into Memorial Day.

Housing starts, Empire Manufacturing, the Philly Fed and initial jobless claims all missed expectations this week. The numbers were not dire, but they will weaken the bid.

Shorts covered on the breakout and Asset Managers played catch-up. That impetus is gone. Asset Managers have a little breathing room after this round of economic releases and they will not chase stocks after a huge run up.

A small round of profit taking could create an air pocket. That would flush out bullish speculators and it would present a buying opportunity.

Earnings season is over and the flash PMI’s are the only driver next week.

I took profits on my call positions and now I am just day trading. At best, the market will tread water over the next few days and time decay will be an issue for option traders.

I should be able to catch most of the moves day trading and I want to keep my overnight exposure low.

If we do get a nice dip over the next few days, I will buy calls. I don’t believe we will get anywhere near SPY $159.

The market tried to push higher this morning and it is backing off. We saw the same pattern on Wednesday and there was a little selling yesterday.

The market needs to consolidate for at least a few days. Take profits and wait for a better opportunity.

I am looking for shorting opportunities today. I will day trade and go home flat.
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