2023-02-24

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13:08:29 Pete	I recorded a video and I went over legging out of spreads. Again, for most of you the best way to exit is to close the spread for a loss. Legging out changes the profile of the original trade making...
13:46:08 Pete	Higher low double bottom forming but I would not read too much into this. Lots of mixed candles and we are in the middle of  the range. Still below the D1 Low+ trendline and the 50-day MA. For me to...
10:00:44 Pete	I am just calling out stocks. For the long side WAAAAAY too early for that. I would need to see us blow thru the hod and into the gap on a bullish cross. That is not likely. I believe that...
10:09:03 Pete	It would be pretty cool to do a real-time Max Pain calc for 0DTE SPY/SPX. I might consider it. Would take time to dev and not taking new projects until we fix some of these nagging issues.
10:21:14 Pete	The tone was set before the PCE. ECB will hike 50 basis points in March and more hawkish "Fed speak" yesterday. The number added to selling pressure that was already there. @Ruddiculous: Question I'm a little surprised that there was this...
10:27:15 Pete	This is a clean trendline breach. These are not long red stacked candles, but buyers need to stand their ground soon or we will suffer a gradual drift lower that will culminate with heavier selling the deeper we get. They...
10:29:22 Pete	QQQ is testing the 200-day MA
10:30:58 Pete	If green candles are instantly reversed, it is another sign of whack a mole and I will be watching for that.
10:43:37 Hariseldon	tech is the weakest sector right now which gives you a good indication of "why" behind Institutional moves this morning
10:44:24 Pete	Yes. Emerging markets also. Those are "risk off" signs.
10:47:06 Pete	If the SPY breaks technical support I will add to my FXI short. I am very comfortable with that trade. I will short /NQ not /ES if I exit that swing long for that reason.
11:09:57 Pete	Yes. All Chines stocks are being taken behind the shed today
11:13:00 Pete	Way too early to tell, this SPY candle could finish red. However, two stacked greens are not as likely to be smacked down as a "solo"
11:55:54 Pete	Another test and another bounce. I would still like to see a higher low double bottom. We are still below the 50-day MA and the HOD should provide some resistance.
12:18:20 Pete	This is where I would buy the BA March (17) $205 puts for $9.55 and leg out of the BPS spread. I will post a chart.
12:22:25 Pete
12:24:55 Pete
12:28:03 Pete	So because we lean on these technical support levels when we establish the PCS, when they are breached, they are also significant. That is a sign that the selling pressure has a chance to continue. The stock has to stand...
14:55:33 Pete	CLICK HERE TO WATCH TODAY'S VIDEO
14:56:43 Pete	Market is sitting right at the hod and we have a bullish cross that is just starting. Let's see if we can poke through.
14:57:55 Pete	This is also the 50-day MA
16:20:51 Pete	Have a great weekend everyone. Time to get some fresh air after all this excitement.
08:05:50 Pete	We won't know until it starts trading during normal trading. The market is down and the news was negative so it will take some early heat for sure.  We have a lot of time until this spread expires so we...
08:16:12 Pete	This is a longer term buy and hold strategy. You can buy long term deep calls and sell OTM short term calls against it. That is called a Poor Man's Covered Call You could also focus on cheaper stocks where your...
08:33:51 Pete
08:35:14 Pete	That is my game plan and I am good with either outcome. Purely technical. I happen to favor the long side for an outcome and I won't have to wait long because we are testing the 50-day MA this morning.
08:37:32 Pete	My reason for favoring the long side is that we are above the major trendlines and not below them and we are above the major MAs. Those are support levels. If we breach them, good. Then there will be money...
08:40:31 Pete	If we keep pecking at those support levels without a breakdown, we are going to release. We are taking out the lod from yesterday after the PCE. I am going to wait for the open and go off of that...
09:24:14 Pete	PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – The market is testing major support this morning at the up trendline that starts at the October low. This is also the 50-day MA. If that level is breached, we will test the SPY $390...
09:28:58 Pete	Good morning.
09:30:11 Pete	Time to grab some coffee. I will be in the room for the first hour and then I will record a video.
09:41:43 Pete	I would not trust any early bounce. Let sellers play whack a mole for a while. They have been able to keep a lid on bounces this week so they are not going away.
09:45:31 Pete	FYI, for a BA leg out scenario for that BPS I would need to see a wimpy market bounce with mixed overlapping candles and a steady drift lower in BA during that market bounce. That would be a sign that...
09:48:03 Pete	BA spread is a month out. There won't be any assignment risk for weeks so that is NOT a concern. The leg out can happen today or any other day when I get that combination. You do not need to...
09:53:52 Pete	FXI swing short is behaving. 100-day MA in sight. I am not balanced. My /ES swing is twice the size as my FXI short.