2023-02-14

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13:45:01 Pete	Long Short BA March (17) $205/200 PCS for $1.00 credit. I like the price action today. The stock has been able to weather recent market selling and it is trying to breakout from a compression. The short strike is below the low...
13:47:48 Pete	I also believe that the intraday moves are very "noisy". We either swing back and forth on volume or we compress on light volume. In either case, we are flat. That means we need to incorporate longer term swing trades...
13:50:13 Pete	If you are bearish, sell OTM bearish call spreads on weak stocks and weight with that bias. If you are bullish, sell OTM bullish put spreads on strong stocks and weight with that bias. If you are neutral, you can...
10:03:03 Pete	Long ES 4152
10:05:01 Pete	Sorry for the late post. Too busy, but you knew what I wanted before it happened. GET LONG. This is a bullish gap reversal on volume and the "greens" are stacking. We could see a bullish trend day and we...
10:06:09 Pete	You don't have to go gonzo all at once. Ease in. We are breaking thru a minor D1 down trendline from last week and this is a bullish flag.
10:08:40 Pete	We had a major D1 down trend breakout two weeks ago. We pulled back and tested that breakout and support was confirmed. We also have a Golden Cross and TLT is up. There is nothing here that suggests the rug...
10:11:36 Pete	For the SPY or stocks you are trading, use the open of the last Key Bar as your stop. If you get more green key bars, move your stop up to that open. We know that sellers have been active...
10:16:03 Pete	This is also why we do NOT pay attention the pre-open moves. Evaluate key D1 price points that are in play based on those moves and include the pre-open move in your analysis, but do not assume that it is...
10:21:46 Pete	The high from  Mon (my entry) is my stop. I could take nice gains, but I am not going to because everything I see tells me that this could be a nice bullish trend day. For that reason I want...
10:28:33 Pete	Make sure you keep an eye on TLT. I can't stress that enough today. If you want to know what the interest rate reaction is to the CPI, that (and not the market) is what you want to watch. It...
10:30:54 Pete	Exit ES $4155. 3 pt gain.
10:31:15 Pete	This is a long red candle.
10:33:59 Pete	We are taking out the open from the green key bar. If you have nice strong stocks you do not have to panic out. This drop just means we are going to see some volatility today. Buyers have already shown...
10:36:24 Pete	Because TLT is below the D1 trendline, it is of greatest interest to me.
10:45:58 Pete	These are long red candles and you need to respect them. If we take out the lod in the next 15 min, you need to reduce your long exposure. If that means taking some losses, do so. At least take...
10:48:53 Pete	I am not going to short ES yet. With swings like this I don't believe buyers are just going to walk away. There will be a bounce in here somewhere. If the bounce is shallow and brief and if TLT...
10:59:52 Pete	Most of the time TLT does not matter. Right now the focus is on inflation and the impact of it on interest rates. TLT is at a critical price point so it is important. To that extent, CPI has been...
11:28:27 Pete	TLT is sinking lower. That is going to be a drag for the market and this SPY bounce was not very impressive
11:29:14 Pete	Short TLT $103.48 swing
11:38:19 Pete	I am going to focus on the trendlines. I hope to launch the new version Wed or Thurs. TLT is the key and it is weak. SPY has been whipsawing, but sellers look like they are in control here. As...
15:10:34 Pete	CLICK HERE TO WATCH TODAY'S VIDEO
16:47:46 Pete	10 minutes after that first red key bar we were at the lod. That is when I knew we were in for some wild swings. I did NOT short there and I suspected we would bounce, but did not want...
08:50:09 Pete	This is NOT the reaction any of us wanted. Lots of big swings and no net change. We need to breakout of this damn price range one way or the other. The initial AH reaction is not worth paying attention...
08:55:09 Pete	In the crude analysis I ran yesterday, I checked changes and aggregate open interest for VXX, SPY, TLT and ES. I did not see any major "leans" one way or the other. If there had been a directional bias, I...
09:01:02 Pete	Don't try to rationalize the move with your "expert" fundamental analysis. Yes the number was "hot". So what. If Asset Managers are looking to buy dips for longer term investments and their models tell them that inflation is going to...
09:09:42 Pete	Here are my pre-open market comments.
09:10:02 Pete
09:13:14 Pete	"But Pete, I don't see any comments." Just use those support and resistance lines as your guide. We want to attack them, we do not want to poke at them. We also want to see stacked consecutive candles of a...
09:18:11 Pete	To the extent that we can trust it, this pre-oepn drift lower looks a bit more legit. Lower highs. Let's see what happens.
09:32:21 Pete	I believe the Feb (14) $412 straddle was priced around $9 yesterday near the close so the move is within that range.
09:36:17 Pete	Watch TLT. It will give us a clue. Right now, bonds don't care about the number. They are dead flat from the close.
09:37:13 Pete	TLT is just a touch below a major D1 algo so this is an important level and any drop would confirm the breakdown.
09:45:50 Pete	The first candle was long and red, but it finished well off of its low (long tail). The next candle was a green Key Bar that recovered much of the red candle. Now we are in the gap.
09:46:14 Pete	The early conclusion is that this is not going to be a market meltdown. Buyers are engaged
09:46:56 Pete	Did not even finish typing and we got this green candle.
09:47:38 Pete	If we are not going to meltdown, I hope we break the #$%^ out.
09:48:48 Pete	TLT > prior day high
09:51:18 Pete	If we blow thru the high from Mon (and I mean a giant green candle here) it is going to spark short covering. We want that on the first attempt.
09:57:35 Pete	There are only two explanations for a rally on the "hot" CPI. 1. The short side was over crowded and this is a squeeze. 2. Long term buyers are active. I believe that there are still many unresolved longer term...
09:57:46 Pete	THIS IS THE CANDLE WE WANT!!