Daily Market Analysis

2022-12-29

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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09:43:25
Pete
3 stacked green candles and a bullish 1OP cross to start the day. as you might imagine, light volume is a concern. 
10:07:16
Pete
I know it is early, but I would favor the long side today. 
10:08:13
Pete
These are really nice stacked candles and we've had some volume on this move higher. 1OP is extended, but far from rolling over. 
10:08:39
Pete
When it does, we want that bearish cycle to be benign. That will set the table for a possible up trend day. 
10:09:38
Pete
If not for the fact that this is pre-holiday trading I would trust what I see. The fact that this has been lame price action in the last week means you have to reduce size
10:30:49
Pete
This is very bullish price action and the volume is good. I would trust this. We are nearing $383.38. That is the high from 12/22. Anything above that we start filling the gap. We are almost thru this bullish cycle...
10:31:27
Pete
I am referring to M5 gap on 12/22 BTW
10:43:07
Pete
We just need to watch the market price action today and Fri. If there are no signs of market selling, I don't believe we will come in Tues with a big gap down. A move down will have to unfold...
10:49:04
Pete
1. We want to see a benign bearish cycle and we want to stay > $381.50. 2. On any retracement, mixed tiny candles and no consecutive long red candles. 3. Staying tighter to the high than $382 would be better....
10:53:32
Pete
I am working on features. I have been trying to solve a puzzle for a very long time and I have some really good logic I need to focus on. After the close today I will talk about 2022 and...
10:55:01
Pete
Parting message: Stay long, try to weather this cycle, this is bullish price action, if we stay tight to the high = bull div and we will continue into the 12/22 gap. Pre-holiday so don't go nuts. 
11:38:56
Pete
This is exactly the price action we wanted to see and we are  trying to get thru the high from 12/22. So far bear cycle benign and this is looking like a bullish div. 
11:40:40
Pete
Long /ES $3873 full
11:42:13
Pete
My stop is just below the open of the long green candle. I am early. 
11:42:46
Pete
I have the prior high of day (today) that should be support and the mid point of the long green candle as well 
11:43:59
Pete
The retracement during the first half of this cycle was minimal and that has me bullish along with the decent volume during the first leg of the rally.
11:44:52
Pete
This was a natural resistance level and in a choppy go nowhere market they would have spanked this rally down. The fact that they did not tells me that there are buyers here.
11:46:05
Pete
I want to see some steady progress into the gap in the next few bars. 
11:47:01
Pete
If my read is correct, 1OP will barely make it back to zero and then the bull cross will send us higher.
11:48:54
Pete
We are clearly thru resistance as well. 
11:51:41
Pete
$3870 stop. That is 3 pts below my entry. Want to give it room. Expecting a float higher. Back to work. I will exit when gap filled or bullish cycle nearing end.
11:53:02
Pete
SPY 386.23 is where the gap fills.
11:54:17
Pete
$3898 target for /ES
12:22:05
Pete
You can see 1OVol > 0 for SPY. I like it.
12:24:44
Pete
$3873 stop that is my entry. At this late stage I am not expecting any pullbacks to my entry so I don't need to give it more room. 1OP bullish cross pending here  so I am expecting more upside, not...
12:34:19
Pete
I need to see a breakout in the next 2-3 bars. I have everything I want in this pattern, but I hate parking in tight compressions with /ES. The risk of recycled news is always looming on days like this. 
12:35:25
Pete
1OP has also started drifting back down and I don't particularly like that. Not bearish, just not bullish enough for me to want to stay in very long
12:35:55
Pete
Exit /ES 2 pt gain
12:36:01
Pete
$3875
12:38:22
Pete
I still like what I see, now I will wait for 1OP and see what happens to SPY while I wait. I don't want to see long red candles to keep my bullish bias intact.
13:09:57
Pete
This is a gap and go. the volume has dried up. I still believe this is a bullish trend day because we went into the gap and had nice price action on volume. Watch for this. The SPY is starting...
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