Daily Market Analysis

2022-12-22

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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09:30:39
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – The S&P 500 lost almost 10% in a week and we were due for a bounce. The rally yesterday was tenuous and those gains are being reversed this morning. This bearish price action is NOT...
09:30:45
Pete
Good Morning!
09:45:23
Pete
We have some nice  red candles and we easily took out the low from Wed. I feel that there is a greater chance for chop than there is for a bearish trend day so I am not going to short....
09:46:17
Pete
No question this is a bearish start to the day, but I am not going to dive in. I know if I wait I will have clarity and that I will find a trading window.
09:54:50
Pete
Tiny bodied candles at the lod suggest that support is forming. In order to short /ES I need to see a bounce that does not get to the halfway point of the first candle. Ideally that turns into a bearish...
10:13:33
Pete
Short ES $3837 only 1/2 position. I still do not trust this move and the volume is light so I am going light
10:14:39
Pete
We are getting the stacked candles, I have a bearish 1OP cross and we filled the gap with ease. I have to go with what I have
10:19:02
Pete
The issue with shorting on light volume is that this drop could just be a buying boycott. Buyers pull bids and the market drifts lower on no volume. When buyers decide that the drop is sufficient, they start to bid...
10:32:11
Pete
$3837 stop at entry price. I have 5 points of cushion. Let's see what happens
10:36:07
Pete
Exit $3832 for 5 pt gain. 1OP is deep in a trough and I am seeing retracement back thru the prior candles. This is a sign that the move lower is getting pretty tenuous.
10:37:59
Pete
That was only on a 1/2 position. I errored on the side of caution early on because of the light volume and that is OK. I missed most of the move so no need to press it down here. 
10:51:22
Pete
These are the green candles we need. A "solo" will get hammered down instantly. That is a sign that this is just a little sht sqz and that sellers are in control and that we are going lower. As a...
11:03:38
Pete
We have a bullish cross here. This is a good place to take at least partial gains on shorts. 
11:05:30
Pete
The bodies are small and that is a sign of support. We have also seen long wicks/tails. That is a sign of back and forth movement. I think we are going to bounce here. It might not last long, but...
11:10:40
Pete
Long ES 3833 1/2 position
11:13:33
Pete
I am early and I know 1OP is early. My stop is 10 pts below my entry price and I am prepared to take a little heat on this.
11:15:57
Pete
My thesis is that we are not going to see one sided trading all day. we are going to get a bounce at some point and when it happens, it will have the potential to take off quickly. The recent...
11:33:36
Pete
As far as SPY, the last hour of trading has been garbage. We are compressing in a very tight range with tiny candles with wicks/tails. Volume is light. If I don't get my move in the next 3 bars I...
11:37:54
Pete
Exit ES scratch. 
11:39:50
Pete
I have alerts set at the tops of these wicks. If we break out I will take a look. This 1OP bullish cycle has not provided any lift. In the early part of the cross I am always looking for...
11:41:31
Pete
That was a timely exit, but I had already decided that it was time to exit. I did not get what I expected/wanted 
11:48:03
Pete
This is a 1OP bearish div. 
11:49:02
Pete
We are about 5 pts from the low of the week (Tues)
12:21:08
Pete
Chinese water torture. A new low for the week and a gradual drift lower with no one to stand in the way
12:22:41
Pete
We know this is a bear trend day now. The bearish div, the lack of any bounce, the breakdown below the low of the week and the pending bear cross all set up well for the short side.
13:06:30
Pete
I should have taken a short when I saw the bear div, but the volume was light so I decided to work on your holiday card instead. Will and I hope you like it.
14:38:01
Pete
We have a nice bounce and 1OP took off. This pending bear cross could provide us with a good entry for shorts. Still plenty of time to test the lod. 
14:43:21
Pete
Short ES 3810  1/2 position
14:49:44
Pete
This is near my stop level. I do not want to take this level out. I don't mind the test of resistance, I welcome it. If we do not get thru that will be more proof that sellers are lined...
14:53:34
Pete
Exit ES 3820 10 pt loss
14:53:48
Pete
That was on 1/2 position
14:54:15
Pete
We will probably test the VWAP first
14:59:14
Pete
If we get a couple of red candles back below the VWAP I will short again and I might do a full position. That would be a head fake. It has to happen soon and I need nice sized red...
15:02:21
Pete
Just like we have head fake breakouts through trendlines and MAs, we get them intraday around the VWAP. Why? Because traders watch it. Right here a move above it emboldens them and they buy. Then institutions slam the door in...
15:06:05
Pete
On a longer term basis, this is some nasty price action into year-end. 2023 is likely to start off on a very sour note. The move today could be a warning to our wonderful leaders to raise the debt ceiling...
15:08:19
Pete
Both parties bitch about the budget resolution, but none of them do anything about it. They use this as leverage against each other and then they stuff this Christmas stocking full of shit and they call it an omnibus bill....
15:10:00
Pete
I'm an equal opportunist. I hate them all.
15:12:05
Pete
With regards to the debt ceiling no one cares. The deadlines come and go and everyone expects them to get passed at the last possible moment and that is usually what happens. When they drag their feet, the market will...
15:14:42
Pete
A bearish engulf here followed by a drop below the VWAP gets me interested, but it has to happen now
15:19:16
Pete
You've heard of the doji sandwich. This is the Christmas sandwich. Two long green bars with a red one in the middle.
15:20:13
Pete
This bar puts me on the sideline. That buying tells me that buyers are still lurking and that the breakout above VWAP was not a headfake. For Hari's sake I hope we tank
15:38:25
Pete
Short ES 3836 1/2
15:49:30
Pete
Exit ES scratch
15:49:56
Pete
Gave it a shot and selling did not materialize.
15:59:09
Pete
16:01:11
Pete
My mistake today was not trading the bearish div when I called it out. I was working on other projects so I was half engaged. I'm glad to see all of you crush it. Some nice "beefy" gains too.
17:22:35
Pete
One thing that always wears on me are the words "always" and "never". Don't use them when you ask questions. We need context. Do you always buy the high of the day? Do you always short the low of the...
17:25:06
Pete
Trading is a combination lock. When all of the tumblers line up, the opportunity presents itself. It is going to take time for you to learn each of those tumblers and to recognize when they do all line up. If...
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