Daily Market Analysis

2022-12-20

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

Click to expand content and reposition slider.

09:09:14
Pete
Hmmm, JPM cuts AAPL iPhone sales projections. I wonder if they might have been selling the stock yesterday? Traders, this happens daily!!!! We are ahead of the news because we are trading a system that follows the big money. Seriously,...
09:14:21
Pete
I noticed some comments about the BOJ move overnight. If you are curious and you want to understand what it means, fine. If you are trying to apply that knowledge to trading... don't bother. In most cases it is better...
09:15:47
Pete
The second you think you know more than others... you're toast. 
09:28:41
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – The market has breached major technical support levels in the last week and the price action has been very bearish.When the market can’t rally into year end, it is a warning sign. I discussed this...
09:29:48
Pete
BTW, we are having domestic issues with RSV/Covid-19 and hospitals are full.
09:32:40
Pete
Short FXI long term swing position with size. Scaling the first half of the position today and I will add < 100-day MA. 
09:36:56
Pete
1OP bearish cross pending. I would like to see this bearish cycle push us < prior day low. I would short that. Shorting /ES here makes little sense since we are so close to it.
09:40:44
Pete
Short 1/4 of FXI at $27.50
09:55:57
Pete
I am ready to short, I just need to see some follow thru. So far this little poke has been met by support. The volume is light so your guard should be up. Make no mistake we are in holiday...
10:01:19
Pete
That red candle on /ES got shorts excited and right now they are taking heat. That is why we have to wait for tech confirmation. 
10:03:20
Pete
This is a fairly bullish pattern, but since we are trading against the trend and 1OP is about to have a bearish cross, I need more proof. That would come in the form of a benign bearish 1OP cycle and...
10:05:17
Pete
We tested the low. Then two bullish hammers and no follow thru. Then the entire red candle was engulfed. Volume was OK on the bounce.
10:28:36
Pete
Need to be careful with shorts. We have no evidence that the market is going down today. Short covering bounces are very possible. Until we get some red candles that take out the open of the green candle I would...
10:29:43
Pete
Volume on the bounce has not been horrible. M15-H1 1OP is in a bullish cycle
10:33:05
Pete
I won't buy until I see at least some of this 1OP bearish cycle. I suspect it will be benign. This is a decent looking bounce
10:41:43
Pete
If SPY $380.70 holds during this bearish 1OP cycle I will buy the next bullish cross. Have to wait and see what happens. We should expect two-sided choppy price action the last 8 trading days of the year. 
10:42:37
Pete
If $380.70 falls easily and early in the bearish cycle I would short, but that is unlikely. The volume on the way up has been decent. 
10:50:16
Pete
given my opinion for the day I am looking for some nice longs. hard to find
10:57:03
Pete
If 1OP starts dropping and the SPY stays at the hod, that is a bullish div and we can expect this sht sqz to continue. That is what I am watching
11:01:07
Pete
Run this very easy search. Heavy volume is critical right now. Heavy Volume Today + Option Liq > -3 + > prior high. Flip thru those charts. 
11:03:47
Pete
The idea behind this is very basic. These stocks will have rel str. Yesterday was a down day. Most stocks opened on the high and closed on the low. Stocks that tanked have much farther to go to get >...
11:08:19
Pete
We are finally getting that bearish cross. Let's see what happens. I am an equal opportunity kind of guy. Just as willing to buy as I am to short. 
11:09:24
Pete
That is actually not true. If I trade the long side I will only trade 1/2 size. If I trade the short size I will take a full position. 
11:09:37
Pete
If the open from the long green candle fails, I will be shorting. 
11:11:18
Pete
Short ES 3851
11:14:53
Pete
Long wicks/tails and lots of retracement. Expect choppy conditions. These are signs of equilibrium. 
11:16:20
Pete
Given the recent market breakdown and momentum, I am more comfortable on the short side as well. I think we all are. When you can't find any good longs, it is a warning that you are looking on the wrong...
11:17:43
Pete
Stop at entry price. $3831 bid for half of position.
11:24:31
Pete
If you are patient, a good trade will present itself during the day even in light choppy markets. We've proven that this year. If you shoot at everything that wiggles and jiggles you will be in trouble. We did not...
11:26:44
Pete
This is Option Stalker, not options run around with your head cut off. 
11:32:20
Pete
$3831 bid for entire position. Ready to close it down. I am happy with my gains on a choppy day.
11:33:48
Pete
Took gain
11:34:53
Pete
Exit ES $3837 for 14 pts.
11:36:09
Pete
Could we go lower? Sure. Could we go higher? Sure. Take what you can get. If my day ends here, I'm happy with it even if the bottom drops out. If we rally back to my entry, I would be...
11:38:41
Pete
Can I reshort if the move continues? Yes. Might that be at a lower price? Sure, but then I will know that there is some selling pressure and my odds are better. Might I be able to short at a...
11:41:24
Pete
Long green and long red candles. Lots of tails and wicks, decent volume, trapped in a range. We are going to move, but you already knew that. https://oneoption.com/the-system/market-first/short-term-technical/volume/
11:42:19
Pete
This is one of the scenarios I highlighted in that article and this is a perfect example of it.
11:45:10
Pete
These articles are easy to read over. You think you get the idea, and you can glance at the material without really understanding it. I encourage you to really soak in the lessons. Try to find examples of them and...
11:54:42
Pete
What do I want here? Bullish 1OP cross, higher low double bottom. It is likely to produce, but I am not that interested. I prefer to trade the short side. With that in mind, I want a benign bullish cycle...
12:03:36
Pete
12:05:07
Pete
If you read the article on Volume and you did not pick up on what was happening this morning, you need to re-read it. This time really focus on the content. The next time you see this pattern you will...
12:11:54
Pete
I have postponed writing an article on trading gaps for a couple of months. I knew this was going to be one of the most difficult topics that I have to write about so I wanted to give it careful...
13:23:36
Pete
This is a benign bearish cycle and the SPY is making higher lows. The pending bullish cross will send us through the high of the day and I would focus on the long side. Wait for that cross.
13:29:09
Pete
13:31:40
Pete
Long ES 3861 1/2 position
13:32:16
Pete
Only trading 1/2 size because choppy day and I am trading against the longer term down trend.
13:38:44
Pete
I barely got that chart up in time. That is what I was looking for and why. It looks like that scenario will play out. We still have to get thru the hod, but we have the entire bullish cycle...
13:43:48
Pete
$3860 stop. That is 1 pt below my entry. I am not expecting a pullback, I am expecting follow thru right now. I have my stop in and I will get back to writing. 
13:51:21
Pete
Exit ES for a 1 pt loss on a 1/2 position. 
13:52:14
Pete
Back to writing. Keep it small and watch for that breakout
14:10:54
Pete
Top