Daily Market Analysis

2022-12-15

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

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09:25:22
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THE MORNING AFTER – Yesterday the Fed raised rates by 50 basis points and the FOMC statement was largely in line with expectations. The S&P 500 closed 50 points lower from the time of the release, but...
09:25:30
Pete
Good morning!
09:40:22
Pete
SPY is only $1 from the 100-day MA. That is 10 S&P points and in striking distance. 
09:45:10
Pete
No stacked red candles. Tiny bodied candles. This is a sign that there is a bid here. Price action stubborn both ways. 1OP continuing higher. This is when bulls would want to see a bounce into the gap. 
09:46:18
Pete
Short AAPL 139.60
09:47:04
Pete
I have no SPY trade here, but I might as well give you a stock I like short. That AAPL trade came off of an alert line I set
09:57:57
Pete
Exit AAPL $.40 gain
09:58:30
Pete
SPY right on 100-day MA. We want to blow thru it. 
10:00:22
Pete
Good volume and remainder of 1OP bullish cycle is bear div. We just blew thru the 100-day MA. This sure feels like a bear trend day setting up.
10:03:22
Pete
No retracement into the red candle that breached the 100-day MA. That is bearish. 
10:04:13
Pete
I am looking to short ES
10:07:46
Pete
This is going to be a bearish trend day. That is the mindset that you need. You are either short or you are in cash. You are not trying to get cute with stocks that have rel str when the...
10:12:03
Pete
If shorting the lod makes you nervous - good. It should. You can wait for a bounce. anything that stalls below the 100-day will be a good entry point.
10:13:24
Pete
For ES I am going to wait for a bounce. It might take a while before we get one, but I don't want to short when the volume has been light and when I know triple witch will cause some...
10:14:01
Pete
We do have a bearish 1OP cross pending so we will have that working in our favor. 
10:27:17
Pete
Short ES 3942
10:29:43
Pete
The way we took out the 100-day MA (no retracement) and the bearish 1OP cross have me bearish here. Volume is good. I do want to see a new lod in the next 20 min. If we stall here that...
10:35:33
Pete
Exit ES scratch
10:36:49
Pete
I did not like that bullish hammer off of the lod. I had 6 pts of cushion on my entry. I do not like the tiny candles here. That tells me the action is drying up.
10:41:40
Pete
Our worst case scenario today was a "gap and go" pattern where we compress near the 100-day MA. There is a good chance that might play out. The bearish 1OP cycle is not producing anything and these are tiny bodied...
10:44:54
Pete
We really needed that follow through selling 15 min ago and we did not get it. I would shift to taking positions off and staying in more of a cash position
11:03:08
Pete
Dangerous to short down here with bearish cycle completing and with signs of support at lod. The longer we sit here, the greater the chances that we get at least a long "solo". What happens on a bar like that...
11:04:53
Pete
The more times we touch the lod, the greater the chances that sell stops will build at that level and that at some point those will be triggered. If not today, perhaps tomorrow. I am in information gathering mode. 
11:06:39
Pete
I had an opportunity for a short on that bearish cross. If the selling pressure remained heavy we would have taken out the lod with ease and we would have continued lower. That was a good entry and I knew...
11:36:04
Pete
11:37:38
Pete
I used those trendlines from last week because they had many touches and the wedge was almost perfect with both trendlines touching. This is a nasty D1 look for SPY especially into year end. 
11:42:15
Pete
We took out the lod and we were not able to rally above it. We have some follow thru so it is safe to short here. Expect a very gradual drift lower. Not great price movement intraday. If you have...
12:26:48
Pete
The price action is so compressed. This is a tiny little bounce and we have a bearish 1OP cross so that all looks good as far as an entry for a short. 
12:31:01
Pete
This is a tiny little SPY bounce, but there is not enough meat on the bone for me to want to short here. We are only 10 pts off of the lod and the risk of a big solo on...
12:36:47
Pete
The volume today and tomorrow will look better than it actually is. Lots of basket trading into triple witch
12:44:50
Pete
This is a good little entry point for a short. 
12:46:43
Pete
The bounce was very shallow. It stalled and the green candle off of that tiny high was instantly reversed. We have a bearish 1OP cross. We don't have much to work with today. Keep it small. Set passive targets and...
12:51:59
Pete
IBM VERY GOOD SHORT!
12:53:00
Pete
Short IBM $143.50
12:55:09
Pete
$142.50 bid for 1/2 of IBM
13:01:14
Pete
Exit IBM for $.50 gain 1/2 of position. Stop at entry for balance of position.
13:12:38
Pete
BearRun is littered with great shorts
13:21:24
Pete
Exit IBM $.80 gain on remaining 1/2
13:27:55
Pete
I exited IBM because SPY has been in a jerky path lower. It is compressing on the lod and it lost its momentum. The plan is to let SPY bounce and to look for one more round of selling in...
13:30:43
Pete
So I took gains and I will reload. There is no right or wrong way to trade this bearish tend day. Some of you are scaling in and riding out the bumps. Great strategy. I am preferring to short, take...
13:44:21
Pete
SPY we had a nice little drop and the bearish cycle ran. The candles started to get very tiny and that told us that support was starting to form. We can expect a bounce and now we have a bullish...
13:45:29
Pete
BTW, IBM is a dog. It wants to go lower. 
14:22:19
Pete
I would like to see a nice long green solo near the end of this bullish 1OP cycle. If we get it and there is no follow thru and it is instantly reversed, I will get ready for the next...
14:36:40
Pete
That is not a particularly long green candle, but it is the best we have seen in over an hour. Let's see what happens.
14:46:41
Pete
A short covering bounce will usually not stack candles like this. We might have more room to go. The 100-day MA is only 25 S&P pts away and that level would keep everyone guessing overnight. I am not overly anxious...
14:54:18
Pete
SPY 1OP bearish cross in next bar or two. I would not do anything here. If SPY blows thru $390 1OP will stay in bullish cycle and we could test the 100-day MA. 
14:55:20
Pete
If SPY $389 fails 1OP bearish cross and we drift lower.
15:00:37
Pete
Long ES 3932
15:01:58
Pete
I like this bounce. 1OP crossed back up and we did not make much progress at the lod. It was flat as a pancake. No leakage lower. That tells me there is support. Typically during a bearish trend day you...
15:02:55
Pete
I am going to keep a pretty tight rein on the position. 
15:03:19
Pete
When I get some cushion I will place a stop just below my entry and keep moving it up to my entry.
15:05:46
Pete
I have a $3930 stop so only risking a couple of points
15:08:58
Pete
Raised stop to entry ($3932).
15:13:47
Pete
Exit ES scratch. 
15:16:46
Pete
Short IBM $142.70
15:25:14
Pete
Each day we come in hoping for good trading conditions and we are disappointed. That is just the nature of the market right now, especially into year end things get very tough. If you can find a few good stocks...
15:26:15
Pete
I have a good entry on IBM and I like the price action I am seeing in the stock. I am not going to let it turn into a loser and I have cushion in the trade. 
15:28:45
Pete
IBM is not getting any help from SPY and I will probably have to shut the trade down and take a small gain. If SPY had dropped, IBM would have lead the charge.
15:29:24
Pete
Exit IBM for small gain
15:58:59
Pete
16:26:49
Pete
1OP works really well for stocks. You need movement and volume. If you have that and you understand the concept of divergences it will really help you. 
16:45:04
Pete
The beauty of bullish and bearish tend days is that you can take your eye off of the market a bit and focus more on the stock. Today you did not have to worry as much about the SPY bullish...
17:09:06
Pete
Have a great night everyone!
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