Daily Market Analysis

2022-12-14

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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09:30:24
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FED-DAY – Yesterday the SPY broke through a major D1 trendline that started back in December and it blew through the 200-day MA. The CPI was better than feared, but that enthusiasm waned quickly. By the end...
09:30:34
Pete
Good morning!
09:37:35
Pete
I have been writing the first articles for Market/Technical/Short-term. The topic is context and it is very important. You hear me speak of it often. Context is awareness. It provides us with clarity and it impacts our game plan. Without...
12:48:22
Pete
https://oneoption.com/the-system/market-first/short-term-technical/
12:48:50
Pete
https://oneoption.com/the-system/market-first/short-term-technical/context/
12:49:24
Pete
This will give you something to read while we wait for the FOMC. The second one is more important.
13:59:54
Pete
So the key levels to watch are the down sloping trend line D1, the high from Tues. The 200-day MA and the 100-day MA on the downside.
14:03:55
Pete
There is a press conf in 30 min and that often sparks a reaction. So far, no extreme reaction. 
14:05:43
Pete
If we do NOT move much today, the action the rest of the year will dry up. This is the last round of news. 
14:13:41
Pete
What's the context right here? Year end seasonal strength and strong support at the 100-day MA that has been tested multiple times. Strong resistance at the downward sloping D1 trendline and a clear rejection from that level yesterday. Market has...
14:16:40
Pete
After the press conf if the lod from Tues is holding, i will go thru and look for some stocks to sell OTM bullish put spreads. I am fairly market neutral, but looking long side because of seasonal strength. The...
14:27:45
Pete
One long red candle on the announcement is not as strong as a few long red candles stacked. A few in a row would be a sign of steady selling pressure vs a knee jerk reaction and then sit.
14:29:56
Pete
Looking at TLT, banks and GLD not much movement and these tend to have good reactions
14:38:22
Pete
This is some "chunky" action. One long red candle, compress on the statement. One long red candle, compress on the press conf. 
14:41:21
Pete
So the last long red candle retraced half way immediately. That is a sign that the selling pressure is not that great. We are not seeing brisk action, just knee jerk reactions. We won't have any more news today so...
14:51:04
Pete
There is a slight downward bias, but low quality. That last long red candle on the press conf was instantly erased. We are back near the lod from Tues and 1OP is hugging zero. That tells me we are not...
14:57:01
Pete
I am noticing wide option bid/ask spreads. market makers don't want to play.
15:22:51
Pete
This action is trash. There is not much to like here. Market is not going to help or hinder and we are 40 min from the close. I looked for some bullish put spreads, but the bid/ask spreads were incredibly...
15:45:59
Pete
Elias wrote: Question Would love a pro's perspective on "conspiracy theories" that economic releases sometimes get leaked before the general public get them? I'm sure it doesn't really make any impact on our trading as we always look for the reaction,...
15:48:56
Pete
The government doesn't pay people to get the right numbers. They just pay people to gather data and to do the best they can. Goldman Sachs pays people to get the number right and they trade off of it. Which...
15:52:33
Pete
That's why I don't care what the jobs report says. It is filled with seasonal adjustments and the claims offices have shorter hours into the holiday. There are always excuses and revisions to previous numbers. ADP processes payrolls for small...
15:56:19
Pete
There is plenty of other "inside information" being passed along that actually has value. Best of all, it is not illegal for Congress to trade it. How a vote is going on new legislation matters and the big institutions know...
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