2022-12-05

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07:45:55 Pete
07:46:17 Pete	This is why we trade what's in front of us. The largest banks who control all of the money don't know. Their projects were off by a mere 25% in many cases.
07:47:01 Pete	There are more banks on that image and you can click to see their estimates
07:47:53 Pete	MS was the closest and they feel the SPY could reach $300 in the first half of 2023
09:27:42 Pete	PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY - I have scoured the headlines and there is nothing new. This is going to be a light week for news. The SPY is trying to hold the 200-day MA. We know after these long green...
09:30:06 CottonTurtle	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 10 EST
09:30:24 Pete	@CottonTurtle TY for that reminder!
10:02:47 Pete	they did not like ISM
10:03:13 Pete	1OP on bearish cross and we took out the lod from Fri. I am looking to short
10:03:36 Pete	We are also < 200-day MA. No hurry. just watching
10:04:49 Pete	ISM Serv was much better 56.5 vs $52.5 exected
10:05:39 Pete	When I saw the number I thought it was going to be weaker than expected. This is a good news is bad news drop.
10:06:39 Pete	I don't give these drops as much credence because it reinforces the idea that a soft landing is possible. When the econ numbers are weak, I would trust those moves lower.
10:23:47 Pete	SPY < 200-day and bearish 1OP cross. I could justify shorting here, but I don't have sustained volume or movement thru the lod so I am not shorting. We just has a volume spike on the news release and now...
10:29:24 Pete	There is no trade on this next comment, just an observation. I like the gap reversal on FXI. It tells me that there are sellers as it gets close to the 200-day MA. It might still have plenty of upside...
10:50:16 Pete	We  are sitting right on VWAP and the 200-day MA
11:08:14 Pete	I like the long side here. We tested the lod from Fri and we had a bullish hammer off of the lod. Tails under body and signs of support. The bearish 1OP cycle produced nothing. I would like to see...
11:35:21 Pete	That breakout did not last long we have a new lod and OK volume. Also < 200-day MA
11:37:01 Pete	Short ES 4023
11:38:27 Pete	I have a bearish 1OP cross, 1Ovol > 0 M5, SPY tested 200-day MA on upside and got spanked down and new lod and < prior lod.
11:52:44 Pete	I am ok carrying this short with a fairly wide stop ($403.50). We had the breakout last week and we have not been able to add to it. $403 was a tiny little horiz resist level (now support) and we...
11:59:16 Pete	ES stop placed at entry. I have plenty of cushion in the trade. I want to let it run and the price action is bearish. I am trying to test OSP so I can't watch every tick. Favor the short...
12:39:50 Pete	This is a bearish trend day. We have not seen many trend days. Hold your shorts as long as you can and ride those gains. This move is supported by > ave volume.
12:44:32 Pete	I plan on riding my ES short like a rented mule.
12:51:39 Pete	In this choppy environment (last few weeks) I do NOT expect the market to go straight down. I am expecting plenty of wiggles and jiggles and I do NOT want to be shaken out. I have the wind at my...
12:54:29 Pete	Of course the better than expected ISM serve number is going to take the blame and I'm sure CNBC is pumping the "good news is bad news theme". That is not what is happening. We know this was a wimpy...
13:05:57 Pete	In order to hold my ES short I want to see a relatively benign 1OP bullish cycle here. The price action has been steady on the downside. If we get that, the next bearish cross will be good.
13:38:10 Pete	This bullish 1OP cycle has not produced anything. 1OP not really popping and it could stay < 0. I am feeling pretty confident in the short.
13:59:41 Pete	You can see how 1OP is down and it can't get off the deck. That is confirmation that this is going to be a bear trend day. We could see that just from the SPY price action. Keep riding those...
14:00:42 Pete	I don't know how many trend days we will get the rest of the year so enjoy it while it lasts. I am not expecting any decent bounce until the last 30 min. The programs are in control now and...
14:43:57 Pete	ES $3983 bid.
14:44:26 Pete	I will take my 40 pt gain there if they want to reach for me
15:06:30 Pete	These little late day bounces will attract some bullish dip buyers and spark a little short covering. As far as I am concerned this will just set up another wave of selling. I am happy with my gains and I...
15:15:02 Pete	Exit ES 3998 for 25 pt gain on 1/2 position. Had to correct the price. typo
15:35:44 Pete	Exit ES 3998 for 25 pt gain on remaining
16:17:38 Pete	CottonTurtle wrote: Question @Pete Sending this question at 10:10 EST, are we seeing a bearish divergence here? Or do you like to give 1OP some time after the open before you lean on it?Thanks for adding the time and time zone. That...
16:29:16 Pete