2022-11-30

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09:27:07 Pete	PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – The SPY is wedged between the 100-day MA and the 200-day MA and the volume is very light. Intraday ranges are compressed and traders are waiting for news that will spark a breakout one way...
09:27:50 Pete	Good Morning!
10:34:08 Pete	Since the CPI 3 weeks ago the 10-day ATR for SPY has gone from $10 to $5. Cut in half. We can see that in the daily ranges.
10:36:35 Pete
10:38:44 Pete	If we break that SPY trendline I am going to join Hari on the "dark side".
10:43:53 Pete	For those of you riding the bounce in Chinese stocks you have additional confirmation in FXI. It is > 100-day MA
13:34:36 Pete	Drum roll please.
13:37:04 Pete	I am very much hoping for a drop below that upward sloping trendline for SPY D1. I feel that gives us the best chance for sustained movement and a drop to the 100-day MA would be likely. If we float...
13:41:01 Pete	Nice trade. You can only make money on that one.
13:50:44 Pete	I am just watching this move. Pretty choppy and very tenuous. There is probably not anything new he will say. I am watching the $396 level. If that fails quickly I might consider shorting. I am not very anxious to...
14:10:18 Pete	As far as SPY, I am going to wait for some of the bearish cycle to run. I don't believe that the market is going to lift off and never look back. There are some great stocks that had a...
14:16:35 Pete	Unless SPY crumbles easily and falls below $399,  you should not consider shorting. This is a good move higher. It is a matter of taking gains along the way when we see signs of resistance. Long wicks, bearish engulf, tiny...
14:17:18 Pete	If you see those signs, take gains, let the market digest the gains and then look to re-enter. Right now, stay the course.
14:19:42 Pete	1OP might be ready to cross here, but that does not mean short/sell. 1OP is early and after a series of stacked green candles we could see a bull div. I would go more by the price action here
14:20:38 Pete	SPY is only $1.00 from the 200-day MA
14:37:41 Pete	No cause for concern yet. We have gone through a good part of the bearish 1OP cycle and we are hugging the hod (possible bullish div). We have not tested the halfway point of the green candle and that is...
14:39:03 Pete	If we get that new hod in the next 2-3 bars, keep riding it and expect to see the 200-day MA.
14:49:40 Pete	If your forecast for Q1 SPY is $300 (MS), why aren't you shorting the hell out of this?
14:50:38 Pete	There could be a few reasons. One of them is you got it wrong and you have to cover some of your position.
14:52:43 Pete	This looks like a bullish div and a bull flag. The halfway point of the green candle held and we should lift off here.
14:52:55 Pete	I am long
14:53:08 Pete	Long ES 4042
14:54:04 Pete	I only have 1/2 position on. I am late to the party and the punchbowl is almost empty
15:02:50 Pete	Long ES 4042 1/2
15:05:03 Pete	New hod and close to bull cross on 1OP. Stop at $4042
15:07:08 Pete	We are only $.30 from 200-day on SPY
15:19:39 Pete	ES 4063 offer for full position. I am ready to take gains.
15:21:22 Pete	If analysts are so bearish, why is the SPY shooting higher? Wouldn’t the institutions be shorting the heck out of it at this favorable level?1. They may not be shorting because they were wrong and they need to adjust risk....
15:23:32 Pete	I vote for #5. Thirty years in this biz tell me to trust no one but yourself. Learn how to conduct your own technical analysis and you don't have to worry about what anyone else is saying or doing.
15:24:45 Pete	I have seen some VERY unscrupulous things in this industry and that is one of the reasons I started doing this.
15:27:19 Pete	Exit ES 4062 for 20 pt gain
15:37:47 Pete	Powell said that smaller rate hikes are likely starting in Dec. OK. Market is pricing in 50 basis points for Dec. 50 < 75 so market was already pricing that in. Market also pricing in 25 basis points for Jan...
15:39:47 Pete	If the Fed is less hawkish, why aren't bonds rallying?
15:42:03 Pete	TLT is not even thru the high of the week. I believe that this is a large short sqz. There is a ton of cash on the sidelines and you have some end of month buying coming in. There is...
15:50:50 Pete	This is a nice breakout thru the 200-day MA. You can take some overnight longs, but I would not go overboard. I expect the 200-day MA to be tested. I doubt that there are any Asset Mgrs who have changed...
15:51:38 Pete
15:52:21 Pete	We still have some upside, but as we get closer to $415, I would watch for this.
16:17:32 Pete
16:35:21 Pete	Idan wrote: @puckshaw Agreed. I missed a big part of this move, and the FOMO has been killing me since 3 PM. I also need to be extra careful tomorrow because I feel like I missed out, which could mess with...
16:44:38 Pete	"Buying stupid" is one of the hardest things to do. It goes against everything we are taught. For some reason traders have an all or nothing mentality. If you normally trade 1000 shares, trade 200 shares. You won't sweat it...
16:45:27 Pete	Hariseldon wrote: For the first time in a long time - I am bullishLOL. I was just starting to turn bearish.
16:51:13 Pete	@Hariseldon My biggest surprise has been that Fed speak has not been more dovish into year end. Not because of a policy change, but to soften the tone and to give everyone a "warm fuzzy" into the holiday. The Nov FOMC...
17:00:00 Pete	A 5% 10-year is healthy, but we won't stay there past 2023. That 5% just seems high because of these money printing fools the last 15 years. Higher interest rates (and inflation < 2%) is good. It keeps the froth...
17:03:13 Pete	Idan wrote: @Pete Thanks, Pete. Not chasing today was difficult, but I’m still glad I didn’t. I'm glad you didn't chase as well. This tough market has taught you to be patient and to pick your spots. That discipline is going to...
17:30:39 Pete	Superpantz wrote: @Pete @Hariseldon @Dave W what do you guys think about the D1 trendline connecting 1/4, 3/29, 8/16. SPY has broken the 200 SMA a few times earlier in the year, but smacked back down by the down trend...
17:31:03 Pete