Daily Market Analysis

2022-11-17

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

Click to expand content and reposition slider.

07:36:53
Pete
This looks like a bear div setting up on /ES M5. I would like to see more of this bullish cycle. If /ES can't get off the deck I will consider a short
07:45:09
Pete
Short ES 3935
07:45:55
Pete
New overnight low, bullish cycle not producing and 1OP rolling back over. Overseas markets soft.
07:47:16
Pete
I will be out before 8:30 AM ET
07:48:32
Pete
Initially I would like to make 10 pts. If 15 min go by without any significant red candles I will settle for 5 pts. If we are just chopping around after 15 min I will try to scratch
08:06:53
Pete
Exit ES 3925 for 10 pt gain
08:15:15
Pete
Sham Blaq wrote: Pete wrote: Exit ES 3925 for 10 pt gainWas you exit based on 1OP indicator?The entry was based on a bear div in 1OP. My exit did coincide with that 1OP bullish cross, but I knew what I...
08:16:41
Pete
Would I buy this bullish 1OP cross? No. Not enough time before releases and the market drop has been steady. I need to see proof of support (long tails, bullish hammer, double bottom higher low...)
09:22:29
Pete
Lesson: On November 10th the market had a breakout above a downward sloping trendline, above the 100-day MA and above a horizontal resistance level. This was a reaction to a “lighter than expected” CPI and the breakout came on heavy...
09:22:57
Pete
09:23:54
Pete
Lesson: Why do we care if it was short covering? Short term traders do not have staying power. They are in and out of positions and they are trying to capture short term moves. If this was short covering, the...
09:24:15
Pete
09:24:53
Pete
Lesson: This morning the SPY will open just above major technical support at $390. That support will be tested. Buyers want to see a heavy volume bounce off of that level and they want to fill the gap quickly this...
09:25:40
Pete
Good morning! Those are my pre-open market comments and I will post the lesson in The System.
10:20:02
Pete
Bearish 1OP cross. Mixed candles at the mkt tries to bounce and no volume. I want to see this attempt to get into the gap fail. I would love a nice long green candle that finishes as a bearish hammer....
10:31:38
Pete
$391.50 is a level I am watching on SPY for a short. This is a wimpy light volume rally so far.
10:39:19
Pete
Short ES 3928 1/2 position
10:40:08
Pete
If SPY takes out the open from the last long green candle I will add the other half to the short. 
10:47:16
Pete
Short ES 3923 1/2
10:47:41
Pete
$3925.5 ave for full position
10:50:41
Pete
The open from the long green candle failed and that is why I added. I want to test the lod in an aggressive manner. I want any support at that level to be squashed quickly and the best way to...
10:52:25
Pete
If we flounder around at the lod with tiny mixed candles I will take my gains and wait for a confirmation of a breakdown or benign bullish cycle.
10:53:36
Pete
Keep in mind my comments are related to /ES. If you are short a stock with good downward momentum, ride that pony.
10:55:41
Pete
Bullish 1OP cross, but we pay more attention to them when they happen below the zero line. We could very easily see 1OP cross back down and continue into negative territory.
11:00:23
Pete
ES 3924 stop working. I know I could be stopped on a solo short sqz, but that typically happens after we have rested at the lod for a few bars. 
11:01:51
Pete
I don't trust light volume moves and no momentum today. I need the breakdown in the next 2 bars
11:08:55
Pete
Barely hanging on to short. Need that breakdown now
11:14:06
Pete
Exit ES 2917.50 for 8 pt gain
11:15:44
Pete
I am just not getting the movement I want. Might we breakdown? Sure. This is getting closer and closer to a 50:50 proposition and on a light volume day with a tight range I should take what I can get
11:17:30
Pete
Once you spend enough time on the lod like this (with tiny bodied candles) the chance of a short cov "solo" increases. I don't want to risk that.  
11:32:15
Pete
11:42:29
Pete
Trading is like boxing. Your jabs are setting up the knockout blow. You put yourself in a position for that punch, but at the same time you don't leave yourself vulnerable to getting put on the mat. Sometimes that knockout...
12:00:37
Pete
That is a nice candle into the gap. Some of it due to short covering. Volume good. News?
12:10:36
Pete
We don't know if this is a good entry for longs yet but we do know a few other things. The 100-day MA is safe for today. We have recovered half of the gap and that is also mildly bullish...
12:20:55
Pete
Now we also know it was not a "solo". This candle is hanging on to the gains and a sht sqz would have retraced immediately. We also know it is not news. We would have seen follow thru. This just...
12:23:38
Pete
The longer we stall at the hod, the greater the odds that we retrace. As we retrace, I want to see half of that long green candle preserved. We are in a bearish 1OP cross and I would like to...
12:58:13
Pete
Long ES 3955
12:58:32
Pete
I actually got busy and could not post, but I would buy here
12:59:55
Pete
I described the pattern we were looking for and we got it. More than half of the long green candle was preserved and we attacked the hod. I am expecting to fill the gap today
13:01:41
Pete
The volume is still light and I would like to see that improve. 
13:38:54
Pete
The price action is bullish. No big dips, well into the gap and 1OP bullish cycle has plenty of time to run. I am just sitting on the ES long until I see signs that I need to take gains
14:16:10
Pete
I want to see this dip reversed quickly. I am not overly concerned because the market bounced above the 100-day and we recaptured more than half of the gap. I want to give the trade plenty of room, but I...
14:19:39
Pete
I am close to stopping out. I don't want this move lower to get any more organized. Need to see some tails
15:12:57
Pete
I have no staying power here because I have no swing bias at this stage for an overnight. The breakout has not had any follow through on a D1 basis and the volume has dried up. 1OP is flat so...
15:15:15
Pete
No follow through to fill the gap either. I do have VWAP right here and the mid point of the long green candle. That is not much to lean on so ready to stop out here
15:50:28
Pete
Exit ES 3948. That was a 7 pt loss. I got too casual with the position in a light volume market. Could have managed that trade better and I should have respected resistance at the hod. Given the extent of the...
16:07:35
Pete
"So Johnny, what did you learn at school today? Nothin." I feel like the parent who asks their child that question. I try to learn something from the price action and I got nothin. I can tell that no one...
16:21:04
Pete
Douggie wrote: Douggie wrote: Hello everyone! I had a follow up question about watching the bid/ask in relation to price. Hope this one is a bit more simple to answer. What does it tell you when the last price is closer...
Top