Daily Market Analysis

2022-11-14

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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09:28:23
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – We had a breakout above the D1 down trend line and the 100-day MA. The volume was heavy and we had steady buying into the close Thursday. Friday we had follow through buying.We have record...
09:34:22
Pete
BTW, I am still long /ES on a swing basis. I will post my exit. I plan to hold and I might add if I like what I see. 
10:09:17
Pete
I like what I see so far. Bid check, bullish hammer off of lod and we just rallied above the open from the long red candle and we are in the gap. The pullback was small before finding support. If...
11:07:36
Pete
These compilation videos take forever to put together. Been at this for 5 hours. I have been watching the market thru the corner of my eye. We are seeing signs of support and the retracement was very minor during a...
11:16:14
Pete
If 1OP has a deep trough and the SPY preserves the lod with some tails under body, a bullish hammer or a bullish engulf off of the lod, I will consider buying a bullish cross. i am not very motivated...
11:38:04
Pete
Little volume on that last green bar. I want to see it continue and I want to make steady progress to the hod. Need to preserve half of the green candle. 
11:38:21
Pete
I meant little volume spike
11:40:52
Pete
Mondays in general have been lame. If we start off the week with a flat open is seems like it is almost impossible to get a move going.
11:41:14
Pete
If there is a big overnight move, Mon can be ok.
13:08:40
Pete
I am long and I still like being long. If I do not see follow thru in the next day or two, I will exit the swing trade. We need to build on the breakout or risk falling back below...
13:10:49
Pete
Am I tempted to add to the long? No after what I have seen today. There is nothing happening. I do view the price action as being mildly bullish. 1. We held the gains over the weekend. 2. The market...
13:18:15
Pete
We will get the PPI tomorrow. Could it be a splash of cold water? Who knows in this market, but I don't think so. The PPI has been trending lower before the CPI was. 
13:18:43
Pete
13:40:28
Pete
This green candle looks nice on a D1 chart, but all of you know better than to trust it. These candles are telling a story. They are overlapping. That means that the market opened below the close the prior day....
13:44:25
Pete
If you lived through the event you could tell yourself along the way what the pros and cons were and you can describe the price action at the end of the day. However, if you learned the lessons I taught,...
13:45:12
Pete
When I look at a daily chart I don't see colored rectangles. I see a story of what unfolded. 
13:51:49
Pete
Pete said this was a weak formation so I am going to buy puts. That would be a mistake. When I say that this is a weak trend it means you can ride it, but you better not overleverage and...
13:53:30
Pete
MTrader wrote: @Pete Question though, I felt this was a weak day also today and was seeming like was going to be more ranging but price has just marched straight up for last few hours and its seeming like its still...
13:59:46
Pete
Market needs a green bar in the next two bars. We are preserving the hod, but 1OP is spiking and bear cross. 1OP could continue higher, but it won't if we don't get that green candle or two
14:01:11
Pete
I would tread a bit cautiously with longs here. If we don't get a long green candle in the next two bars, take a little off.
14:07:51
Pete
Exit ES 4012 for 7 pt gain from swing trade Fri
14:08:59
Pete
I was looking for a stronger open and better follow thru and that is why I took the swing. I am still bullish, but I feel like I will have a chance to get long any time I want. 
14:11:44
Pete
We did not get those two green bars I mentioned. It has been a choppy day on light volume so we know the market can go both ways. There is a bearish 1OP cross and the market hit resistance. Translation:...
14:12:00
Pete
A short would even work here.
14:13:35
Pete
Short ES 4011 1/2 position
14:14:05
Pete
Only taking 1/2 position because I have a swing bullish bias and because the action is so light today
14:15:44
Pete
The short is just a day trade and only looking for 5 pts. No target set until I see some of the price action. If much of this 1OP bear cycle runs without a move, I will exit. That would...
14:21:04
Pete
FYI, for the first time in a couple of months I have a swing bias. It has been a while since I could say that. My confidence is fairly low. I remain more of a day trader than a swing...
14:26:51
Pete
Exit ES 2 pt gain. 4009 on 1/2 position. I will just wait for my set up.
14:27:27
Pete
During this little dip the bodies were tiny and tails underneath the whole way. 
14:32:26
Pete
I would like to see the high from Fri hold as this bear cycle completes. That would be a small pullback and I will be satisfied that the selling pressure is minor and that buyers are interested. Then I would...
14:42:02
Pete
From a bullish standpoint, this is the support level I would like to hold as the bear cycle completes. It might not, but that is what I want to see. If I get what I want I am likely to...
15:03:10
Pete
Would I buy here? Maybe. I don't mind carrying an overnight long. We are below the high from Fri and if we were above it I would be slightly more bullish. Given where we are and the fact that 1OP...
15:13:08
Pete
... and that is why we wait for the actual cross. On slow days like this it is critically important to be patient. Now the SPY is at the VWAP. We still don't have the bullish cross and the price...
15:15:29
Pete
Pete do you always wait for a VWAP cross? It is on my charts, but I don't trade VWAP. I am aware of it just as I would be any other support and resistance level. IMO it works for the...
15:20:05
Pete
Am I still interested in buying? No. A bullish cross will take 15-20 min to form and then we will be in the last 30 min of trading. I mentioned the pattern I wanted and I did not get it....
15:22:59
Pete
Why was that red candle so long? Traders were leaning on the VWAP for their stop and they were shaken out. What technical price action would confirm my suspicion?
15:23:49
Pete
st0rm wrote: bullish engulf / hammer right hereCongrats. You want to see the market bounce back immediately.
15:25:31
Pete
If you recover the VWAP, that is also half of that red candle. You might not get a complete engulf in one bar, but it could happen in 2-3. The point is you want the red bar recovered quickly. Then...
15:27:08
Pete
Sometimes it seems like the institutions know your positions. I hate to break it to you, but you are not big enough for anyone to care. They have a better weapon. They know how you think and their programs are...
15:43:33
Pete
15:44:43
Pete
The area where I would add shorts is a failed breakout of the down sloping trendline. We poked above it and it was a head fake. That point is also below the upward D1 trendline.
15:51:58
Pete
"I never know when to take gains." If you watched that 1OP bearish cross at the hod and the price action I referenced, that was a good exit point. If you were bearish (I mentioned this and even took a...
15:54:14
Pete
Although on light volume, this is not a health close for bulls. There should have at least been enough buying to support the lod.
16:07:52
Pete
16:10:37
Pete
I shaded the area red for Hari. 

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