Daily Market Analysis

2022-11-11

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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07:34:31
Pete
Long ES $3977.50
07:35:37
Pete
Double bottom low and bullish 1OP cross pending. Overseas markets generally strong. 
07:43:49
Pete
It took a few hours for the market to digest the gains from earlier in the day and to confirm the bid. It stayed fairly close to the hod and the retracement after 2.5 hours of trading did not have...
07:58:33
Pete
08:03:35
Pete
08:07:31
Pete
Offering /ES $3987.50
08:31:39
Pete
Exit /ES 1 pt gain
08:33:12
Pete
The 1OP cross never materialized and now it is just chopping around. The market also does not have any pace to it and the outcome is 50:50. I knew what I wanted and the time frame that I wanted it...
08:35:17
Pete
If the market screams higher will I be upset? Of course not. I have to act based on the information I have and at this juncture it could go either way. 
09:25:50
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – I am going to keep this brief. We have a breakout above the D1 down trend line and the 100-day MA. The volume was heavy and we had steady buying into the close. This move...
09:35:05
Pete
1OP is spiking. Let's see what if any profit taking we have. I will be looking to buy
09:35:26
Pete
I want to see some of a bearish cycle before I enter.
09:41:06
Pete
Super stoked, super excited by the breakout yesterday, "man do I want to buy". That's me right now, but I am going to fight that temptation until I see some of this bearish cycle. 
09:42:29
Pete
No matter what I "think" the market is going to do, I have to follow the system and I have to be patient. 
10:04:07
Pete
I am looking to buy, but the bear cycle is just getting started. The farther we get thru it without any profit taking, the more bullish I get. I have done a video in a while so I am going...
10:48:42
Pete
1OP bullish divergence. I like being long right here. 1OP bullish cross pending. If you wanted to play it super safe you would also wait for the blue dotted line in 1OP to flatten out
10:49:33
Pete
Long /ES 3980. You will see that entry in the video recording
10:51:07
Pete
The bullish divergence alone is enough for me to buy so in this case I would not worry as much about the blue dotted line. The fact that the market was able to hold the bid after the massive gains...
10:52:20
Pete
This has been a low quality rally as far as stacked candles and retracements, but the volume has been good and we are drifting higher. I expect to see a long green candle in here soon.
11:26:58
Pete
I've tried rebooting my computer and unfortunately that video is toast. I recorded it in the wrong format. I am still long /ES. This is the type of bullish cross I would like, but the price action has been soft...
11:31:30
Pete
I do like the market on a swing basis so I am more inclined to add to the position than I am to stop out. I won't do that unless I have  strong technical confirmation that this bullish cross is...
11:39:29
Pete
I need to see some stacked green candles through $396 for me to add. That is the half-way point of the red candle and I would also need to see that at min during this bullish cycle to want to...
11:40:45
Pete
When we get these monster moves it almost always translates into a slow day the next day
12:13:07
Pete
Long /ES 3975 2X
13:07:41
Pete
It has been a couple of months since I had any confidence in my market bias on a swing basis. That is why I focused on day trades. Now that I have a bullish bias on a swing basis, it...
13:08:43
Pete
Hari had that confidence on the short side the last two months. You saw him do similar and he killed it. I did not share that confidence so I had to stick with what was right for me. 
13:15:44
Pete
The issue for many traders is that they might have that confidence when they put the trade on, but when push comes to shove they stop out of the trade and they lament when they get the move they originally...
13:18:42
Pete
Exit /ES 3889.50. That is a 12 pt gain on a 2X position or 24 pts
13:20:26
Pete
I am not bearish. The price action has been choppy today. I will see what happens at the hod. I have no reason to expect that all of a sudden we are going to blow thru the hod. 
13:23:55
Pete
But Pete, you said that we should not set targets. No I did not say that. I said that you need to consider the context of the move and then determine your exit. The context right now is a slow...
13:25:02
Pete
The good thing is that if the market continues to move higher it will prove that this move has more room to run. I still have a buy button on my computer and I can use it anytime if I...
13:37:04
Pete
Right now I am happy on the sidelines. We had a nice little breakout and that shows that we can move higher. That new hod attracted some bullish specs and they should get flushed out. These are tiny bodied candles...
13:38:32
Pete
I want a pullback and a benign bearish cycle that stays pretty close to the hod. During that pause I will find the strongest stocks for lottos on the notion that the next bullish cross will produce a late day...
14:17:03
Pete
Hariseldon wrote: Short SPY Using $405 Puts - Expires 12/16 for $16.78There is a reason Hari picked this exp. Any guesses?
14:17:58
KM
FOMC 12/14
14:18:05
lilacrose
Pete wrote: Hariseldon wrote: Short SPY Using $405 Puts - Expires 12/16 for $16.78There is a reason Hari picked this exp. Any guesses?Expires after FOMC?
14:18:11
Pete
@KM Bingo! well done!
14:18:42
Hariseldon
Nice guess KM ! You are correct! As is @lilacrose 
14:23:43
Pete
The market bid at the hod has been pretty stubborn and that is bullish during this bearish cycle. You can see the red candles off of the hod are instantly erased. I am still not ready to buy. I want...
14:53:23
Pete
Ruddiculous wrote: Question The market has priced in an 80% chance of a 50bps rate hike in December, but Powell said a week ago he's not even ready to start thinking about slowing down the rate increases. Does that make this...
15:02:01
Pete
The market has been able to float higher on decent volume (1OVol). The pullbacks have been tiny and that is a sign that buyers are engaged. 1OP is as flat as a pancake. The red bars are instantly erased. I...
15:04:21
Pete
I would love a short bearish cycle and I would expect to see at least some profit taking.
15:04:42
Pete
I need that move so that I can see which stocks still have a strong bid for lottos
15:05:37
Pete
This red bar is a start. You want your lotto stocks to be oblivious to this red SPY bar
15:12:29
Pete
This is NOT the pullback we want to see off of the hod for bullish lottos. Too organized and the red candles are too long
15:13:59
Pete
Find your stocks and this drop will reveal RS. We still do not know how far we will drop
15:31:09
Pete
1OP crossed back up and we should have a strong close. 
15:34:48
Pete
1OP crossing back up was not the reason for me feeling we would have a strong close so I should explain. The dips in the last few hours have been tiny. That means that buyers are aggressive and the volume...
15:36:40
Pete
At the end of the week I would only be trying a low risk lotto on my bias
15:47:08
Pete
Long ES 4005. 
15:47:40
Pete
I might hold half over the weekend, but if I get a nice move I call also take gains and reload.
15:48:12
Pete
1OP is moving higher and that has me thinking we will get that move. 
15:49:27
Pete
if we do make a new hod, try to hold  as long as you can. You would be amazed at how high the SPY can run in the last min and even a few min after the close
15:50:28
Pete
I have a 4015 limit working for 1/2 of position
15:59:04
Pete
I am going to carry the ES position over the weekend as a swing trade
16:12:32
Pete
vonerrant wrote: Question did hitting 4k on SPX trigger the late sell offs? the first 1min candle to close above 4k immediately preceded that 20pt waterfall, and subsequent touches immediately preceded red candles going into the close. were these just profit...

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