2022-11-09

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09:15:37 Pete	PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – Mid-term elections did not result in a “red wave”, but Republicans are likely to control the House. The Senate race in Georgia is tight and a run-off might be needed to determine a winner. That...
09:15:52 Pete	Good morning!
09:49:17 Pete	1OP is spiking. We gapped down and we are trying to get in the gap. Since 1OP is close to a bearish cross I will outline what I would like to see. We have a long red bar to start...
09:51:03 Pete	We do have support at the lod from Tues. I would like to see a red candle thru the lod. That would get me short 1/2 position. The 50-day MA is at the lod from Tues. That support needs to...
09:52:13 Pete	So < $378.50 on a long red candle gets me mildly short. If we attack the lod from Tues and blow thru it, I would add to the position. If we inch down to it, I would take gains on...
09:52:26 Pete	The length of the candles so far is good so there should be movement.
09:53:44 Pete	From a bullish standpoint, I would need time. The bear cycle would have to run without a new lod. If that were to happen the next bullish cross (45 min?) would need to attack the gap.
09:57:59 Pete	Short ES $3800 1/2 position
10:05:25 Pete	I only have a 1/2 position on so I have good staying power. I plan to watch half of this bear cycle without a stop and I am comfortable on the short side. I do have a mental target at...
10:25:27 Pete	I am on the wrong side of this trade. The half-way point of the long green candle is holding and we blew into the gap. I need  to see the halfway point of the long green candle fail in the...
10:30:24 Pete	Every bar provides new information. Now we know that there is not going to be an instant gap fill. Sellers still have some say and this is a bearish engulfing candle. This bear cycle has a chance to produce. If...
10:39:29 Pete	Exit $3802 for 1 pt loss on 1/2 position. My entry was poor.
10:41:42 Pete	I did not expect the bid to be strong enough to lift the market into the gap. I was wrong and I have a minuscule loss and I can evaluate the action from a clean slate.  I did not panic...
10:55:15 Pete	If we do not break down below the 50-day, it will happen at some point in the next day or two and it could happen today. There are many touches at this level. Remember, this is not how we want...
10:58:01 Pete	So when it does go, it will look even more convincing because those sell stops are triggered. We need to tread cautiously on that breakdown because it could just be a headfake to trigger those stops. In order to short...
11:02:57 Pete	AriS wrote: @Pete Its seems as though 1OP is not following the PA..almost doing the opposite.  Im hopeful you could add a bit of insight I'm not sure what PA means. When I shorted 1OP had barely crossed. I should have waited....
11:06:27 Pete	@AriS What do we know about 1OP? 1. It is early 2. It requires technical confirmation to take a signal. 3. We can expect divergences (doing the opposite) when there is a strong trend in place (stacked candles. We do not...
11:07:02 Pete	1OP is doing exactly what it should be doing.
11:08:24 Pete	Right now much of the bearish cycle has run and we are finding support at the lod (50-day MA) The next bullish cross is likely to result in a bounce if the lod holds. We are seeing some long tails...
11:12:57 Pete	I have a bullish hammer off of the lod and a bullish cross pending. I am looking to buy a dip in here. I also know that there is some buying based on the early candles into the gap and...
11:15:17 Pete	I have a $3801 bid in for 1/2 position. That is the halfway point of green candle
11:15:57 Pete	Long ES 3808 1/2 position
11:20:17 Pete	I wanted to finish my point on the sell stops at the 50-day MA. So let's say that that support holds today. Tomorrow the CPI comes in "hot" and the market tanks. When it takes out that 50-day MA you...
11:23:40 Pete	I don't have my $3801 bid working, but I might consider adding
11:28:32 Pete	Long ES 3808. full position
11:29:14 Pete	That retest and bounce gave me the confidence I needed to add. It tells me that buyers are supporting this level.
11:30:03 Pete	If we do not get any lift out of this bullish 1OP cycle in the next 20 min I will exit.
11:37:21 Pete	I am not liking the price action for SPY. We are just chopping around on light volume and we are in wait and see mode again. This time it could be the CPI. I think the election results are factored...
11:47:23 Pete	ES 3808 stop which is my entry. Now I am getting the move I wanted on this bullish cycle. My target will be close to the hod
11:50:43 Pete	$3824 target.
11:53:48 Pete	I want half of the long green candle to hold. If I do not hit my target and the cycle nears completion I will take gains. If another 10 min pass I will raise my stop a little to insure...
11:57:44 Pete	Exit ES stop hit and I scratched the trade. While I muddle around with ES, many of you are making money on stocks. I know there is a lesson in this.
12:08:35 Pete	The other day I mentioned how few really good trading days there are. For my style of ES trading (I am not a scalper) there are probably 50 banner days and 50 good days. The rest are very hard.
12:10:12 Pete	That might sound discouraging, but the 50 banner days alone will make your year. The 50 good days are icing on the cake. The key is not to piss your money away the other 150 days and to recognize the...
12:22:23 Pete	The SPY is making lower highs and  it is visiting the lod again. The drop from the "solo" green bar has been steady and this is another failed attempt to squeeze shorts. It is a sign of selling pressure and...
12:26:56 Pete	Stick this pig and let's get on with it!
12:29:46 Pete	Based on my bias, why don't I short ES? The volume is horrible and 1OP is as flat as a pancake. For ES this is low odds stuff. At any time we could see a 10 pt green short covering...
12:35:25 Pete	This candle will be a good "tell" for shorts. If it is hammered down immediately, sellers will finally be ready to take out the lod.
12:36:54 Pete	I am referring to that last green candle. if they destroy that green bar it will be a "solo" and we will take out the lod.
12:38:51 Pete	Short ES 3797
12:39:59 Pete	This is a pretty high odds set up so I will trade it. my stop is the open from this candle
12:41:40 Pete	If we do not take out the lod in the next 2 bars I will also exit. the price action tells me that sellers might have enough fire power to take out support. They did not flinch to hammer down...
12:49:58 Pete	Exit ES for scratch.
12:50:17 Pete	There is just no #$%^ firepower.
12:53:49 Pete	I am going to spend time on projects. If I see something interesting I will let you know.
13:48:48 Pete	Long red candle, no retracement in 2 bars that followed and continuation. This is a legit breakdown below the 50-day. Still horrible volume so it is difficult to trust this move.
14:10:26 Pete	Long ES 3780
14:13:45 Pete	The bid has been very stubborn today and the market had a hard time breaking below the 50-day MA. The long  red candle triggered sell stops, but we have not been able to gain traction. I am going to try...
14:36:03 Pete	Exit ES 3870 for 10 pt loss
14:37:45 Pete	I did not want/expect a new lod so time to take my lumps. No lift from this bullish cross and buyers seem to have finally thrown in the towel.
15:17:03 Pete	We are going  to get a bullish cross in here and I am ready to buy
15:23:13 Pete	This candle would need to turn green for me to buy. I need to see a probe for support reverse
15:28:51 Pete	These are marginal new lows with mixed overlapping candles. Those are signs of a weak trend and we are getting a bullish 1OP cross. In general, I do not like trading the last 30 min and it takes something special...
15:36:48 Pete	My window for a possible long trade into the close did not materialize.
15:39:31 Pete	You can't trade without the right price action. I needed volume (never even close) and I needed to see a probe reverse instantly and turn into a bullish hammer or bullish engulf (never happened).
15:45:08 Pete	@owensd Correct. I am trying to set the backdrop for the trade so that you know what I am thinking and what i am looking for. That way you understand the set-up and you can watch as it unfolds. I find...
15:46:16 Pete	Hariseldon wrote: SPY Strangle - $385/$365 for $2.23 - Expires 11/11I like it. This is a chart of the last 5 CPI reactions and they all produced big moves
15:46:34 Pete
16:10:30 Pete	Awful market volume today. We finally broke the 50-day MA with 2.5 hours to go. Before that there was not much to trade market wise. You found some incredible weakness in EV/crypto and you rode those stocks like a rented...