Daily Market Analysis

2022-11-07

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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07:01:34
Pete
Short ES 3799 . 
07:01:53
Pete
Only looking for 5 pts.
07:11:09
Pete
07:17:13
Pete
Ready to stop out. Need to see this retest of hod fail. 
07:17:34
Pete
Overseas markets up slightly in Asia and Europe.
07:22:53
Pete
AAPL down pre-open. Foxconn factory closed due to Covid-19 in China. Could reduce iPhone production by 30%. China's imports down .3% and 4.3% increase expected. This is third month in a row. Down 5.7% year over year, biggest since 2020....
07:27:05
Pete
Exit /ES $3798. 1 pt gain
07:28:17
Pete
I did not want to see that retest of hod. I will keep an eye on /ES, but more interested in researching news over the weekend.
07:57:14
RichardS
@DanielF Can we assume that a high CPI number - may drop the SPX some - similar to the Employ and FOMC - despite it being election week?? (Hoping)
08:19:10
Pete
@RichardS We don't assume anything - we research. What has the market done on the last 6 CPI releases? Have those releases been higher or lower than expectations?  I urge everyone in here to first do the research and then to...
08:21:18
Pete
I.E. The CPI has been above expectations the last six times and 4 out of 6 of those times the market has had a negative reaction and closed on its lod. I don't know the statistics, just citing an example....
08:22:01
Pete
It is easy to post questions, it is much harder to do research. 
08:41:39
Pete
I am having a problem posting images to the chat room, but I will post a chart of the CPI reaction. 3 out of the last 6 times the market has sold off on the CPI and 3 of the...
08:47:08
Pete
Many of you might feel it is my job to conduct research and to provide these answers. I do what I can in that respect. However, my goal is to teach you how to think for yourselves. You won't always...
09:31:31
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – Strong US economic releases are keeping the market above the low of the year. This is giving the Fed confidence that they can hike. They admit that they see weakness ahead. Seasonal strength, record cash...
09:35:53
Pete
1OP is starting off in a climax. Market gapping up in a longer term down trend. Translation: Wait to see what the bear cross brings. Our best scenario is a gap reversal with red candles that fill the gap. Why?...
09:44:43
Pete
What can we tell from the first few candles? Friday we had a big number. Big volume out of the gate and 3 stacked candles with little to no overlap. What do we have so far today? Very little volume...
09:48:06
Pete
What is my ideal set up here? 1OP bullish cycle continues. Market tests the high from Fri and it can't get thru. That is also close to 50-day MA. Bearish hammer off of high from Fri or bearish engulf that...
09:48:44
Pete
Know what you are looking for and what you will do if you get it.
09:58:46
Pete
Gap fill, more red than green to finish 1OP bull cycle and bear cross. Feels like we are in for a gradual drift lower. 
10:03:45
Pete
Short ES 3787
10:04:29
Pete
I was looking to short a bounce on this 1OP bear cross. I am still expecting a gradual leak lower.  
10:07:37
Pete
This is going to be a dull choppy start to the week. The volume is very low and the candles are mixed and overlapping. This is a good  time to keep your powder dry unless you see a stock that...
10:11:34
Pete
i am keeping a pretty tight stop on my ES position. It is more time based than price based. in the next 2 bars I want to see us take a bite out of that last green candle. Ideally we...
10:12:50
Pete
Again when trading ES you have to be much more diligent with managing entry and exit than you do with stock. If you have the right stock you can ride out some chop. With ES on a day like this...
10:16:16
Pete
Exit $3795  loss 8 pt.
10:17:13
Pete
Now we will see what happens at hod from Fri.
10:18:25
Pete
Still expecting resistance to hold at that level and will be looking for confirmation in the form of bear hammer or bear flag. Still early in bear cycle so looking to short. 
10:24:05
Pete
Short ES 3790
10:27:01
Pete
Bidding $3775
10:28:23
Pete
Stop $3790. Want to give it room in this chop, but also do not want this to turn into a loser.
10:39:18
Pete
Exit ES $3782 +8pts. No issue with first trade or second trade. This action tells me to expect chop. Bad for trading ES, but OK for stock.
10:43:03
Pete
We have a double top lower high on SPY and pretty stiff resistance at that level so I am favoring the short side here. Action just very choppy. My first entry on short... no issue. I wanted a test of...
10:45:10
Pete
1OVol has been < 0 all day for SPY and that is your first clue to keep it light. The mixed overlapping candles is your second clue. Don't piss your capital away on this price action. Hold out for a...
10:47:52
Pete
Why not just trade ES? This is a classic example of why we don't trade it. You will get chewed up in this meat grinder if you trade it. On the other hand, many of you will post great stock...
12:30:41
Pete
The clues that we were going to have this type of day were present 2 hours ago. Very important to pick up on those clues. 
14:19:03
Pete
Breakout or head fake? Given the touches at this level the chance for a breakout to trigger buy stops is high. If this is a "solo" and we drop right back into the range in the next bar or two...
14:36:37
Pete
This breakout is looking pretty legit. It would be an easier decision to join it if 1OP were just starting a bullish cycle, but we are pretty far into this one. I will be looking for a candle with a...
14:38:35
Pete
If we close below $379.40 it will be an easy decision to favor the short side if < 50-day. We are above $379 which is the 50-day
14:56:59
Pete
With an hour left we need some action. A long red candle thru $379.50 and ideally $379 would work. That matches up with the bearish 1OP cycle. It also matches the lackluster action today and the notion that this breakout...
14:58:22
Pete
On the bullish side of the coin, a bearish 1OP cycle that holds the 50-day MA would bode well for follow through buying into the close. It would be a sign that buyers are still engaged. I am just waiting...
14:59:51
Pete
Short ES 3809 1/2 position
15:00:01
Pete
I will add below SPY $379
15:06:17
Pete
on an SPY D1 chart we have some support and a couple of candles with tails. There is some support and we are testing half of the long red candle from the FOMC. Bears want this level to hold and...
15:07:49
Pete
If we do not test $379 this candle or next, I will exit the trade. I need movement. 
15:14:27
Pete
I am bidding to scratch the trade. If I am not filled I will just buy it back. We are pretty far into the bearish cycle and we are holding the high. Very soon this scenario starts to favor the...
15:14:36
Pete
Exit ES 5 pt loss
15:14:51
Pete
That was on 1/2 position 3814
15:16:14
Pete
I am ready to buy 1/2 position
15:16:37
Pete
Long ES 3817.50 1/2 position
15:18:25
Pete
Long ES 3818.50 1/2 position. Full position 3818 ave
15:22:46
Pete
The tell on the dip was that the candles were very tiny. When you get those, a bullish flag is common. The problem is that when the candles are forming you do not know what you will get. If you...
15:24:21
Pete
I did not know which of the two was going to play out when I shorted so I only went with 1/2 position. Now that I know, I went with a full position. 
15:25:58
Pete
in general, this is very low probability trading. We need to grind higher and in two bars I need to have a nice cushion so that I can place a stop at my entry. Otherwise, I will just exit the...
15:36:04
Pete
Exit ES 2 pt gain 3820
15:36:56
Pete
I have no business trading this mkt. This is garbage. We could see a late push higher, but these candles are tiny and we could just as easily drop. 
15:44:35
Pete
Let's wait for GOOG and MSFT earnings. let's wait for AMZN and AAPL earnings. Let's wait for the FOMC. Let's wait for the jobs report. Let's wait for the election results. Let's wait for the CPI...
15:57:52
Pete
If you shorted the last CPI number that came in "hot" you got your ass handed to you. That is the long green bullish engulfing candle on the D1 chart off of the loy that finished 200 S&P pts higher.  
15:59:22
Pete
So you guessed right on the number... you still lost your butt. Don't guess the number and don't guess the reaction. Pare back risk into the important events and wait for the reaction. If you read my eBook this will...
16:31:30
Pete
When you have a dull day and a tight range like today the breakouts are usually fakes. You have to expect that they are just to trigger stops and that the market will reverse back into the range. That range...

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