2022-11-01

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09:26:58 Pete	The market is going to open above the close from Friday. The pain trade is on the upside and the threat of "dovish" Fed comments is fueling the move. I would not chase a "gap and go" this morning. If...
09:44:20 Pete	I would not trade before ISM. Watch this bear cycle. Bulls want the gains to hold tight. Then the next bull cross will be good
10:11:38 Pete	That was a nasty gap reversal. That first long red candle was a clue. This has the makings of a bear trend day so I would not try longs.
10:19:05 Pete	Your best play if you have not traded is to wait for a benign 1OP bullish cycle here. Look for a meager bounce that last no more than 30 min and then short on the next bear cross. Be aware...
10:20:27 Pete	We are pre-FOMC so erroring on no trade is better than forcing a trade and joining a big move that is already underway.
10:21:00 Pete	You will have your chances, be patient.
10:21:24 Pete	At least today we have movement!
10:25:40 Pete	ISM man was right at contraction level, but inline. I don't think it was the reason for the next leg lower. That table was set before the number hit.
10:34:30 Pete	There is another scenario that could play out, but there is time and we need proof. If we do get a big bounce to $387.50 it will be a sign that we are in for a wild day. After a...
10:43:49 Pete	No big bounce, new lod in < 30 min, we are going down. This is thru the lod from Mon and we had a number of touched there. Let's make sure that this is not to trigger sell stops. We...
10:44:24 Pete	1OP is likely to roll over and keep going down.
11:06:18 Pete	TheProfessor1970 wrote: I would like a bounce, just so i can short the hell out of it.You will get it. The way this pattern usually plays out is you get a pretty decent bounce around now. It last for 60...
11:22:47 Pete
11:23:01 Pete	Could look something like that.
11:30:18 Pete	Long ES 3864.50
11:31:18 Pete	This is NOT how you should be trading. Your focus should be short only and to take gains on shorts and then look to re-enter based on the pattern I highlighted
11:31:52 Pete	I will NOT overstay my welcome on this trade. My better trade will set up in 90 min or so
11:40:35 Pete	I need to see a bounce on this candle or I will stop out.
11:41:28 Pete	I thought I had enough support forming and a bullish 1OP cross to lean on, but I was not looking to make more than 10-15 pts and now risking that
11:44:34 Pete	Exit ES 8 pt loss. 3856.50
12:06:01 Pete	Long ES 3869
12:06:53 Pete	offering $3884
12:09:15 Pete	I want to make at least 5 pts on this trade. I already have that. The last long red bar was a bit unexpected and it shook me out. The better trade will come in an hour and that is...
12:11:10 Pete	Exit $3874 for 5 pt gain.
12:12:08 Pete	Hariseldon wrote: Everyone and their grandmother is pressuring the find to pivot - and you know the only ones that haven't commented on it? The FED themselves.Exactly.
12:13:47 Pete	There will be rumors galore on a pivot. Even stories of a deceleration of the tightening pace will surface. No shit, they aren't going to keep raising rates 75 basis points at each meeting for the next year? The pace...
12:17:13 Pete	There could be a couple of Fed officials who soften their vote, the dots could shift a little, they change a word in the statement. All of these things will be scrutinized. The bottom line is that the Fed will...
12:21:35 Pete	I have seen the Fed cut interest rates just before the open on expiration Friday. Do you know the chaos that created? Their intent is to screw with shorts when ever possible.
12:24:13 Pete	That rate cut was NOT scheduled, no Fed Speak scheduled. They had this carefully planned out to max pain for shorts and to inflict as much pain as possible. When you live thru one of these you see things differently....
12:27:36 Pete	The market is NOT on the ropes as it was back then so I am not looking for them to do anything remotely like that now. We were heading for a credit crisis. My point is that right now if...
12:28:50 Pete	The SPY has not been able to get off the deck. That last bearish hammer was a nice one. I doubt we get much lift here. 1OP did not make it > 0 and it has rolled back over.
12:49:21 Pete	I would like to see one more nice little pop on this 1OP cycle. Then you can use the upward sloping M5 trendline and a bearish 1OP cross to time up what should be a good afternoon short. We want...
13:16:31 Pete	There is the pop I was looking for. Now we need  to let this run its course and let 1OP finish the bull cycle. The upward trendline will extend and eventually we will have our short. Should be setting up...
13:34:40 Pete	Short ES 3867
13:36:59 Pete	We have the bearish 1OP cross and half of the last long green candle has been breached along with the M5 up trend line as detailed earlier.
14:17:29 Pete	Exit ES  3869  2 pt loss. The market is not going anywhere and that bearish cycle ran without any movement. I am not going to sit in a trade where I did not get the move I expected.
14:18:43 Pete	We have not moved much since the first 90 min today.
14:24:00 Pete	The market barely bounced today and I view that as bearish. That increases the odds for a move lower. If we can run a quick bullish cycle in the next 20-30 min and no move higher, I would be tempted...
14:31:05 Pete	SPY 100-day MA with a clear rejection off of the gap up thru it on the open. They had no issue shorting the heck out of that move. That also set up the gap reversal.
14:35:40 Pete	We are getting a fast little 1OP spike and that plays into what I am looking for. No move higher in SPY so I will be looking at a short again.
14:41:48 Pete	Short ES $3867
14:43:12 Pete	We will give this another try. We are closer to the close so we should get some movement. We went thru a bullish 1OP cycle without any upside movement and now that we have a bearish cycle I have that...
14:44:35 Pete	I would much prefer trading weak stocks given the lack of market movement, but I only post /ES so I will take a short here.
14:45:49 Pete	SPY $384.25 has to fail pretty quickly and then we have a chance to test the lod. If that does not happen in the next 30 min we are going to sit here.
14:58:28 Pete	I am ready to stop out on /ES
14:59:14 Pete	Frustrating for /ES?  Yes. That is why you are much better off trading stock.
15:04:39 Pete	Exit ES 3873 for 6 pt loss
15:59:57 Pete	FOMC we will either breakout thru the 100-day MA or we will break below the D1 uptrend line. Once way or the other we will know. The initial reaction is not always indicative of where we will go, but Thurs...
16:01:38 Pete	I still have an SPY $395/400 CDS on from Fri for $1.65 db. I expected better price action Mon and I missed my window to bail on the open today. I will exit before the statement.
16:13:47 Pete	I believe we are going to see a big move off of this FOMC as well. The bounce off of the loy has been based on the Fed softening their tenor into year end. If that does not happen the...
16:15:35 Pete	I have a few PCS on, but minimal exposure and way OTM. Otherwise, I am in cash and just taking it one day at a time.