Daily Market Analysis

2022-10-31

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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09:13:05
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – Last week the market rallied above horizontal resistance and the downward sloping trend line at SPY $380. It closed right at the 100-day MA on speculation that some Fed officials might soften their tone this...
09:13:26
Pete
The global backdrop is bearish and there are many signs that economic growth is deteriorating. Some of the largest sovereigns are supporting their bond market and currencies. Central bank intervention is never a positive.Does all of this mean that the...
09:52:04
Pete
We have a new lod and we have a bearish 1OP cross pending. 
09:54:57
Pete
For me personally I like the long side. I might not get what I am looking for. I want a benign bearish cycle and I want support to hold. I do not want a big drop or organized selling. Then...
09:59:05
Pete
BTW, I do still have the SPY Nov (11) $395/400 CDS on @ $1.65 db. I do not plan to exit any time soon. But Pete it is against you, how will you manage it? I don't give a #$%^....
10:05:55
Pete
Mixed overlapping candles still support the set-up I am watching for. I view this as a weak drift lower so far. 
10:36:46
Pete
I am seeing signs of market support (mixed overlapping candles), but 1OP continues to drift lower. There is zero reason for me to take action given the side of the market I prefer to trade. Support at SPY $385 is...
10:38:07
Pete
If you have a strong bias on which direction you want to trade, the worst thing you can do is to cave in. You will not have any staying power and on the first bounce you will close your shorts...
10:40:51
Pete
That also means that you do not jump the gun on the first signs of a bounce. The two green candles earlier came at the start of a bearish cycle. You would be taking heat right now. Patience is not...
10:41:16
Pete
I am ready to buy. 
10:43:03
Pete
I have a well-defined support level and tiny bodied candles on the lod. The downward momentum has stalled and I have a possible bullish cross forming. My plan would be to take a partial position at $386.50 and to add...
10:46:34
Pete
 Long ES 3855 1/2 position
10:46:52
Pete
Looking to add other half near hod. Want to get there fast.
10:52:05
Pete
If you read my pre-open market comments I outlined the EXACT pattern I want to see and the scenario I would favor the most. This is what you need to do. It's hard to hit a target if you don't...
10:53:01
Pete
There will be times when you do NOT have an opinion and when conditions are simply just too volatile. That is OK. It means you need to trade smaller and go with the flow. 
10:55:30
Pete
The worst case scenario is also still on the table. It might take us a very long time to get out of the first 90 min range and we could already be dead till the Fed.
11:00:16
Pete
1OP is as flat as a pancake and that is also telling you that there is no momentum
11:10:51
Pete
I am ready to add, but I want this green candle to hold up well and I did not want a big wick. Now I need another green candle fast in order to add
11:13:50
Pete
With 1OP flat, I have to assume the hod could hold and that the range will prevail. I need that breakout to add and I do NOT have 1OP to lean on. Not an ideal set-up
11:14:56
Pete
1OVol has been < 0 all day and that is another warning sign in terms of dull trading
11:17:58
Pete
We should all want that breakout into the gap. That is our best chance for any movement today. If we get into the gap we have a chance for a gradual drift higher. 
11:27:18
Pete
Long ES $38941/2 
11:28:34
Pete
Ave ES $3889.50. I want that move into the gap in the next two bars. 
11:30:24
Pete
If I do not get the move into the gap in the next two bars I might just take gains on the position or at least take the last leg off. 
11:31:41
Pete
I want the open from the last green candle to be preserved as well. This is all low odds stuff folks.
11:46:14
Pete
I still do not have a bullish 1OP cross I did get the move into the gap. The next 1OP bullish cross should produce a gradual move higher. My target is the close from Fri and I will be done...
11:47:14
Pete
The price action so far tells me not to expect too much action. A gradual drift higher is likely. My stop is just above my entry so I won't lose money on the trade.
12:03:18
Pete
Exit ES 4 pt gain on a stop. 
12:03:54
Pete
This was not completely unexpected. The action is garbage and we know that from the light volume. 
12:37:00
Pete
To the extent that you can trust anything the market is doing today, we have a rejection from the hod and a breach of upward sloping trendline M5 and a bearish cross. 
12:38:52
Pete
Short ES $3882 1/2 size
12:42:19
Pete
$3877 bid for ES. I will take quick gains if I get the drop.
12:47:24
Pete
Lowered my bid to $3876
12:58:12
Pete
So why the shift in sentiment? I thought you only wanted to trade the long side. It was likely that the market would fill in the gap. We were in it and we had a bullish 1OP cross. As we...
13:00:07
Pete
I have small size and a fairly passive target so I will let it move around on the notion that we should be able to get near the lod on this type of price action. 
13:03:28
Pete
Usually we will still get some position squaring Mon and decent movement. Tues and Wed are awful ahead of the Fed. I would hate to think that this is as good as it gets until the FOMC, but it might...
13:37:21
Pete
Exit ES 12 pt loss on 1/2 position on ES. that is a 6 pt loss on a full position and I am -2 pts on the day. There is nothing here to trade
13:38:20
Pete
My back up power is chirping like a bird and I am off to BBY to replace it. I will be back for the last 90 min.  
13:41:34
Pete
I would have just left this position on with a bid at scratch. The market is not going anywhere and the likelihood of us revisiting $3882 is great. I just did not want the risk exposure since I am leaving. 
14:34:57
Pete
I'm back and I can see that I did not miss much. Tues and Wed will likely be dead. The market is constantly looking for the next catalyst and it seems like we do more waiting than anything else. 
15:18:35
Pete
I am always trying to learn something from the price action of the SPY that I did not know the day before. There is not much information today. Buyers were excited Friday and now they are not. We are also...

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