Daily Market Analysis

2022-10-28

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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08:34:08
Pete
Long ES 3810.50
08:34:52
Pete
I have a bullish  1OP cross and a nice pop on volume. That is all I am leaning on.  
08:37:06
Pete
I am trading half size and I want half of the long green candle to hold. The market has been creeping higher for the last couple of hours. Hard to imagine given the earnings reactions.
09:00:52
Pete
Long ES 3806.50. ave $308.50 for full position
09:01:13
Pete
$3808.50 ave
09:07:24
Pete
$3808.50 stop. We are pre-open and I don't want to lose money on the trade. I do like what I see and I want to let it run. 
09:20:48
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – Who is buying this SHIT? The market fell back below horizontal resistance and the downward sloping trend line at SPY $380 before the close Thursday and then the bottom fell out of the QQQ after...
09:21:14
Pete
Day traders should have some nice action today. Tech earnings have been reported and sellers will be emboldened. They do not have to worry about a massive tech rally on earnings. There is also a market bid so you can...
09:21:26
Pete
Good Morning!
09:24:37
Pete
Exit ES 3818.50 for 10 pt gain 
09:41:34
Pete
We are stacking green candles but the volume is light. I think much of this could be a sht sqz. Lots of bears loaded up after AMZN and they are getting sqz
09:56:06
Pete
If the SPY can hold the gains thru this bearish cycle (and it looks like it will) I will be ready to buy. We have tiny bodied candles at hod and I want to let this sht sqz run thru....
10:28:36
Pete
Long ES 3861
10:35:09
Pete
SPY > 50-day.
10:36:47
Pete
The long wicks and long tails are a reminder that conditions are going to be volatile. 
10:37:58
Pete
There is two-side action and I would NOT assume that we are off to the races just because the action is bullish so far. These rallies will be challenged all the way up. 
10:39:44
Pete
Does the PCE mean the Fed is going to be more dovish next week? How can we tell? 
10:40:08
Pete
TLT is not moving higher so institutions still feel the Fed is hawkish.
10:41:54
Pete
Exit ES 2 pt gain. I don't like the price action on SPY
10:42:52
Pete
Tiny bodied candles suggest resistance. I want to buy on a dip. If we keep grinding higher I can re-enter
10:57:40
Pete
The long tails and wicks are retracing the candles. At some point, sellers will have their way and we will have a nice dip. The depth and duration of that dip will help me gauge how strong the buying is....
11:07:16
Pete
Did we have stacked green candles with little to no overlap? No. I went thru the EXACT pattern we want in the presentation Wed. That tells me that sellers will have their way at some point. Now we are getting...
11:09:04
Pete
We get thru the bear cycle with little to no damage - fine. I will buy the next bullish cross. If we see a nice deep drop, we have to expect lots of volatility and action both ways
11:25:38
Pete
I like the long side, but not until I see this bearish cycle run. We have  been able to hold tight to the hod and that is mildly bullish, but I still want to see this cycle. 
11:27:33
Pete
if the SPY takes out the open of the last long green candle, you can try the short side. I am just going to wait for support and focus on the long side. That is where I am most comfortable.
11:28:13
Pete
This is not about catching every move, it is about having confidence in the side you are trading.
11:29:17
Pete
If you are flippy floppy on which side to trade, you are probably going to drive yourself nuts because you will be all over the board
11:32:03
Pete
I want to see a nice deep trough in 1OP and I want to stay close to the hod. If I get that I will buy a bullish cross and expect another leg higher. 
11:33:18
Pete
$38575 is the open of the last long green candle and I want to see it hold. For now, the halfway point of that candle is holding and that is mildly bullish.
11:41:43
Pete
Long ES 3877.25
11:42:13
Pete
This is a bullish div as far as I am concerned. Sellers could never take the market down on that bear cycle
11:42:41
Pete
on a bullish cross I may go 2X
11:48:53
Pete
Long ES $3880.25
11:49:27
Pete
$3878.75 ave 2X
11:53:06
Pete
When I trade 2X I like to have some immediate cushion so I am looking for a move higher in the next bar or two at most. If I don't get it I will peel back to 1X
11:53:43
Pete
Once I have that cushion, I can start placing my stop near or above my entry and I can ride it higher
12:00:37
Pete
Exit 3877.50 for scratch
12:01:09
Pete
I am  not getting the breakout I wanted. I am still bullish here, but waiting for a solid breakout
12:01:55
Pete
1OP is also not giving me a solid cross. This is a bullish div and I am expecting lift off here.
12:06:26
Pete
So all of this time spent at the hod does provide us with some additional insight. It tells us that resistance is fairly strong. Even if we get the breakout, it might not have much force. Sellers are not abandoning...
12:09:05
Pete
Time is a critical component to these moves. Just like on big drops, we don't want the bounces to last more than 30 min. When they do not, we know that sellers are still firmly in control and we can...
12:12:00
Pete
The opposite is true on the upside. We want the dips from the high to last < 30 min and we want a new hod soon. When that does not happen it tells us that the selling pressure is heavy...
12:14:37
Pete
This is Fri so we could have some really nice lottos that set up. Our best scenario for those is a late day drop that starts to look real. We do NOT want to be too far off of the...
12:16:18
Pete
We have a bullish cross and a nice long green candle, but given the length of time this took, I am only going to trade 1 X 
12:17:44
Pete
Long ES 3886
12:24:49
Pete
This is a bullish trend day so focus on the long side. We are thru the 50-day MA. The pullbacks have been tiny.
12:31:08
Pete
$3886 stop (entry) placed on ES. I have breathing room and I want to let it run. I am working on some OS and OSP projects. 
12:41:21
Pete
Fred wrote: Question Sorry for putting this question in the room, but I figured 45 mins before open would be ok for questions.  Pete wrote: I have a bullish 1OP cross and a nice pop on volume. That is all I...
13:12:00
Pete
Raised stop to $3891 ES
13:27:26
Pete
Exit ES 3896 for 10 pt gain. I am expecting the market to float higher but we are compressing and I feel we will get a small dip in the next hour to attract short sellers. 
14:11:09
Pete
This is the market dip we want. Let it come in. We want to stay pretty tight to the hod, but we also want this to look like the market is rolling over. We need some shorts to get lured...
14:18:20
Pete
that SPY did did not even get going and it attracted buyers. This is bullish. 
14:27:58
Pete
Long ES 3898
14:29:00
Pete
I am leaning on a bullish 1OP cross and the lack of any pullback. We could just keep drifting higher. 
14:31:52
Pete
I am going to hold without a stop on /ES. I might even carry an overnight. 
14:34:40
Pete
Long SPY Nov (11) $395/400 CDS for $1.65
14:35:06
Pete
I feel the prems will hold up pretty well with the FOMC on deck next week. 
14:35:33
Pete
That is a swing BTW
15:11:06
Pete
Exit ES 3909 10 pt gain
15:11:45
Pete
I still have my SPY CDS on so I want a strong close.  I plan to carry it over the weekend. 
15:16:45
Pete
If we get thru that 100-day MA you are going to see some FOMO from Asset Mgrs. Could happen today, could happen next week. The risk right now is not that the Fed will be hawkish. Everyone is expecting that....
15:18:34
Pete
I'm not looking for a big year end rally, just a few more days of continuation. Then I will wait for the FOMC and play it from there. 
15:23:06
Pete
Those who waited for a market pullback today never got one. The bid was constant and aggressive buyers had to keep stepping up. that is why we never got a dip. Those who missed the boat are going to get...
15:26:16
Pete
This is when you would normally start to see some profit taking after a strong day. If we do not get a dip, it will be a sign that that selling pressure is instantly being gobbled up by "Johnny come...
15:41:45
Pete
If I am right, we are going to lift off into the bell. We should even clear the 100-day MA
15:42:29
Pete
could even see a 10 pt S&P rally in the last few minutes of trading.
15:51:42
Pete
Long ES 3908.50
15:51:46
Pete
day trade
15:52:23
Pete
I have my SPY spread on, but I am looking for that late push higher
15:52:37
Pete
Hold until the bell. 
15:52:52
Pete
You will be shocked how high this thing can jump in the last minute
15:53:52
Pete
I know we have the 100-day MA up there. not worried about it
16:01:54
Pete
Exit ES 3913.50 5 pt gain
16:04:58
Pete
Quite a turnaround from 24 hours ago. Right about now the bottom was falling out of AMZN
16:08:37
Pete
I told you this week that one of my trading axioms is never short from the last week in Oct - Dec 31. Now you know why. It does not mean I have to be long, I just can't be...
16:18:22
Pete
16:19:17
Pete
Almost all I talk about is 1OP. If you followed it today you caught almost the whole move and you did not have reasons to exit because there were no pullbacks.
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