2022-10-21

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08:15:13 Pete	Short ES 3650. I have a nice drop in /ES a few hours ago and a small bounce. The uptrend from that bounce has been breached with 3 stacked red candles. I have a bearish 1OP cross and we are challenging...
08:17:18 Pete	I also do NOT have anything on the economic calendar this AM so I don't have to bail out at 8:30 AM ET.
08:29:28 Pete	I am having issues posting a chart in the chat room. I have a stop in at my entry price. The price action has been choppy and I do not want to lose money pre-open.
09:08:21 Pete
09:09:08 Pete	I did scratch the trade on a stop. This is the chart I was trying to post.
09:22:18 Pete	With US treasuries in a meltdown the Fed is trying to calm the markets. They are still hawkish, they just don't want panic selling in bonds
09:23:40 Pete	Exit ES scratch on a stop.
09:25:59 Pete	I don't have much to add to the morning comments. We want nice tall bounces that stall. Be patient and wait for resistance and a bearish 1OP cross like yesterday. Our best odds of success will be to short failed...
09:32:51 Pete	How will we know if the market believes the WSJ article? Will the market bounce on that news? Answer: Watch TLT
10:23:27 Pete	Does 1OP work for TLT? Yes. Tiny bodied candles on TLT. Did not fill the gap. Resistance building. SPY Bearish 1OP cross and open from last long green candle breached. Those were some nice stacked green candles on SPY so...
10:25:28 Pete	I would short here and add on continued weakness
10:26:28 Pete	That was a long red candle so not expecting much retracement. If it happens I would also add on a lower high double top.
10:27:11 Pete	TLT also long red bear engulfing candle and bear 1OP cross pending
10:29:31 Pete	When the Fed does sense trouble (market drop or drop in bonds) they will do anything to make it painful for shorts.
10:34:28 Pete	Right now the market is saying, "we don't believe the news". Bonds won't stop going down until it hears dovish remarks from the FOMC and it has to be a majority of officials. Without any major negative economic data points,...
10:34:44 Pete	I would be adding to shorts
10:36:07 Pete	Sorry, but that is about all the time I have for market comments this morning. We have some cross currents today so we should see good two-sided action. Overseas markets were down and before the news, the market was drifting...
10:38:23 Pete	When the majority of Fed officials have recently said that they are considering moving some of the rate hikes into 2022, the market will believe that and not the other. Watch TLT. It will provide clues today as far as...
11:09:13 Pete	TLT new lod. That tells you what institutions think of that news.
12:02:28 Pete	This market rally looks pretty organized. We moved steadily thru the hod and TLT found its footing.
12:08:18 Pete	The market is taking its lead from the bond market today. If TLT gets in the M5 gap the SPY will grind higher. Market a bit stronger than TLT so there is an upward bias as long as the bleeding...
12:10:08 Pete	I suggest setting an alert at hod for TLT
12:24:46 Pete	I would be a little cautious shorting here. The first series of green candles today was strong. The pullback off of the high was more choppy. We had a few good candles on the pullback and then lots of retracement....
12:32:34 Pete
12:33:24 Pete	That is what I am seeing. Watch TLT. From a bullish standpoint, I would want to see this bearish cycle finish benign. then the next bullish cross will send us to a new hod.
12:34:23 Pete	If you look at volume today it has been heavier on the rallies than on the drops
13:02:59 Pete	Benign 1OP bearish cycle and new hod on bullish cross. I hope you are seeing how the price action puzzle pieces fit.
14:32:54 Pete	Market observations from a distance. The bid has been strong today and the pullbacks have been minor. This is a bullish trend day and we were able to get thru resistance at SPY $372. I would like this bearish 1OP...
14:54:04 Pete	TLT has been creeping higher and it could test the hod. It is still not in the gap, but at least the bleeding has stopped for a day. I believe the market is leaning on that. I still would not...
16:12:24 Hariseldon	Just had a convo with JPM - in one of those "well maybe I will switch over....so me what you got" type things.  She just laid out a very convincing case of the possibility for SPY to hit $200 and...
16:14:37 Pete	I will tell you flat out, SPY does not get to $200 without a major credit crisis.
16:15:29 Hariseldon	@Pete it assumed a deflationary spiral and private credit cycle
16:17:31 Pete	Cathy Woods has been talking about deflation as well (not that anyone listens to her anymore). A year ago she was all that mattered.
16:20:45 Pete	I am always right 50% of the time.
16:23:28 Pete	I remember back in the late 90's there were so many fund managers who were bashing Warren Buffet. He's lost it, he doesn't get the internet, this time is different, why does anyone listen to him... They are long gone,...
16:55:42 Jinroh	What is the relationship between TLT and SPY?  Do they typically inverse each other?
16:59:14 Pete	@Jinroh For the last 10 years bonds have not had an impact on the market. Right now the market will not like a continued drop in bonds because it means institutions are projecting more tightening