Daily Market Analysis

2022-10-05

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

Click to expand content and reposition slider.

09:27:07
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY - There is not really much I can say other than bulls and bears continue to battle it out. I want you all to focus on one outcome today because it could set us up for...
09:28:18
Pete
We want the drop this morning to run its course quickly with minimal damage and strong buying. A close above the high from yesterday would be bullish. The bid check this morning will confirm that there are buyers at this...
09:29:22
Pete
If the market gives back all of the gains from Tues, we are back at square one and we trade two-sided price action.
09:34:37
Pete
ADP was in line and ISM services in 25 min. That could be an important release especially with ISM man on the soft side Mon.
10:00:19
Pete
ISM serv due out
10:02:59
Pete
56.7 for ISM serv which is a good number. 55.5 expected
10:06:26
Pete
testing lod from Tues. If we take this support out we will start to fill in some of the gap
10:07:21
Pete
bearish 1OP cross after a nice spike so that sets up well for a short here if Tues lod fails. 
10:27:45
Pete
This is not a particularly strong move lower. We are in the gap, but I suspect that we will have a bounce well before we fill in the gap. We are still in the beginning of a bearish 1OP cycle...
10:41:36
Pete
I am still watching for a bid check and a very strong bounce. As unlikely as it might seem right now, the fact that we are in the gap from Tues will attract shorts. I don't believe the buyers from...
10:45:02
Pete
If we get this price action it would actually set us up with at least a few days of bullish price action so I would like to see it. I want this bearish cycle to complete without any further damage....
10:46:59
Pete
One more push lower with a bullish hammer or a bullish engulf is what I would like to see. No need to rush this trade. I could be completely wrong and I need proof. As it stands, this is still...
10:50:56
Pete
The contrarian in me sees a nice long red candle into the gap from Tues. That will trigger a few sell stops, but not many since only one touch. I will attract shorts and the move lower from that breakdown...
10:52:39
Pete
These are just my current thoughts about the price action this week/today and a scenario I would like to unfold, but that might not.
11:01:07
Pete
This is NOT the type of 1OP bullish cross I like because barely below 0. I would like to see the SPY make one more move lower and drive 1OP down. Then bullish hammer/bullish engulf.
11:09:16
Pete
We has a similar instance last week where Wed looked great and we rallied all day (just like Tues). Thurs we gave that all back and then some. The difference is that the market tanked in the first hour and...
11:12:45
Pete
Long ES 3743 1/2
11:13:06
Pete
I will add above $372.30
11:15:00
Pete
This bounce is going on 40 min which is longer than we like to see from bearish standpoint. The longer we sit, the greater the chance of at least a bounce. Combined with wimpy drop and the other context I...
11:18:06
Pete
Long ES 3746 1/2
11:18:28
Pete
If we get above the halfway point of the long red candle, I will go 2X
11:18:45
Pete
That has to happen quickly
11:22:11
Pete
I don't know if we will get the pattern I highlighted pre-open, but right now it is going according to plan. The bonus is that we took out the lod from Tues which will provide fuel for the bounce when...
11:22:59
harkren
I will say it in case anyone is thinking and unsure, if you are not a consistently profitable trader you should not be following this
11:23:51
Pete
Correct. You should however, reduce risk on shorts.
11:38:27
Pete
Long $3756
11:38:52
Pete
I have a 2X position on with 3751 ave entry
11:44:19
Pete
Don't get yourself worked into a lather. Still a lot of game to be played. If I am right, there will be time to take some swing longs so we just need to keep confirming. The long green candle to...
11:50:41
Pete
my mental stop is the open of  the long green candle. It must hold or that candle will just be a short sqz "solo"
12:07:31
Pete
I liked that red candle and this green candle. 
12:11:16
Pete
We have a bearish 1OP cross, but no tech confirmation for a short and given the peak of the last spike it could cross back up and keep going higher.
12:12:18
Pete
Long ES 3770 
12:14:13
Pete
3757 is my ave 3X. If the scenario plays out I intend to hold 1 or 1.5X overnight and I will have a low ave entry price
12:16:27
Pete
There are times to trade passively (most of this year) and there are times to step up. Only you can determine when those odds surface. For me, this is one of those moments. I do NOT suggest you follow me,...
12:34:10
Pete
I want ES 3762 to hold. I have a large position on. I want to give it room, but I will NOT let it get away from me.
12:42:14
Pete
Nothing is ever easy in this market. Constant retracements. 1OP is not much help today. Lots of mini crosses which we can see in the mixed candles and overlap. For me today was a test. Was yesterday a complete fake...
12:45:55
Pete
If you look at the D1 chart of SPY right now you will see that tail this morning gets us to the half way point of yesterday's long green candle. It has been preserved. A rally and close into positive...
12:48:09
Zander
Isn't the long green candle from yesterday a bad print? (Sorry meant to send that all in one message) 
12:49:06
Pete
@Zander my bad. yes it is.
12:50:07
Pete
@Zander I was looking more at the distance from the close Mon to the close Tues
12:57:31
Pete
We are  in the gap  today and we have a strong pattern setting up.  I have NOT been encouraging swings for a long time (most of the year), but the table is set for a meaningful bounce for at least...
13:01:44
Pete
1OP M30 has been spot on and it is still in a bullish 1OP cycle. H1just completed a bullish div and it has a bullish 1OP cross. As far as I am concerned I have tech confirmation across multiple time...
13:02:24
Pete
Last sentence was M5 basis
13:19:00
Pete
We are not even getting a bearish cycle in here. 1OP has not been < 0 all day and that is bullish.
13:34:15
Pete
13:36:15
Snakebight
@Pete Before considering swings, should we wait for the results of tomorrow's jobless claims report, or was the ADP report insightful enough (along with the technicals you are looking at)? 
13:36:21
Pete
Will this bounce last a couple of days or a couple of weeks? Don't know, don't care. In this market I will be long gone. I do expect at least one more day of positive price action.  
13:38:22
Pete
@Snakebight Let this bearish 1OP cycle complete. See how far we retrace. Look for strong D1 charts and stocks that did not pullback. Enter the trade on the next bullish cross. This is all standard fare. If you have nice gains,...
13:40:09
Pete
The one thing you will notice about the boxes I highlighted is that ALL of them gapped up overnight. Is that going to happen this time? I have no @#$% clue. I only know that the odds favor it. 
13:42:34
Pete
If this is the market I believe it is, it will hold the gains well during this bearish cycle. I am expecting that and watching for it.
13:59:35
Pete
SPY $375 is a level I want to hold.
14:04:33
Pete
Bearish hammers off of the hod are always tough to hold thru especially when  you have had a day trading mentality most of the year. I knew I was going to take heat, but I am looking for more upside...
14:12:04
Pete
SPY bull flag likely here.
14:15:03
Pete
When we do get this bullish cross I want to see this cycle take us to the hod from Tues and ideally thru. That would really get buyers going. We still do not have that cross but we should get...
14:29:20
Pete
We have the M5 bullish 1OP cross but as you know, I would like the blue line to flatten out. I expect that in a couple of bars. All told, the SPY weathered that speedbump well and I am expecting...
14:36:03
Pete
Pretty fair resistance at the hod and I am watchful of a double top. The fact that we have shouldered a bear cycle and that we have a bullish cross is giving me confidence to hold. Plus the other factors....
14:36:08
Pete
There we go
14:42:51
Pete
The 1OP blue line flattened out and the red line crossed back down. This bullish cross will be much more to my liking.
14:43:27
Pete
A good bull cross is pending.
14:52:04
Pete
Heavy resistance at the high from Tues. If we can't clear it today I will take gains. My suspicion is that we are going to blow thru it
14:52:40
Pete
We are finally getting a decent bullish 1OP cross
15:01:36
Pete
This has the potential to be one heck of a bullish cycle now that we are thru the hod from Tues.
15:06:42
Andreas
@Pete That was one heck of a trade! congratulations... that was amazing to watch... 
15:12:22
Pete
@Andreas TY. I outline many scenarios each day including the ones that I would most want to see (biggest potential) and the ones that are most likely. Unfortunately, I don't often get the ones that have the biggest potential. Today I...
15:17:18
Pete
For months I have not been trading much because of projects I am working on. I have been itching to trade. After my fishing trip I saw a pattern I liked last week and I took an overnight long. I...
15:20:00
Pete
I never worry about taking losses because that new information provides me with keen insight and I know I will make that money back and then some.  
15:25:29
Pete
Offering ES 3817 2X. I am ready to take gains here and leave 1X on
15:28:25
Pete
I will let the next 30 min play out and I plan to take 1X overnight. 
15:29:49
Pete
Exit ES 3812 all. That was 55 pt gain on 3X
15:30:41
Pete
Why would you exit if you plan to hold 1X overnight? Because it feels damn good
15:32:53
Pete
Folks look at the D1 chart. There is room for an overnight bullish swing here. We might not want to hold over into the jobs report, but I feel we will open higher Thurs 
15:38:12
Pete
I Would like to see more volume, but after heavy selling this year the volume often lags. Buyers are not willing to commit until they see that confirmed support. If you look back to the July rally you will see...
15:42:36
Pete
15:44:11
Pete
You can see that the rally today had tons of mixed candles and overlap. No big dips and that was good. It was not a super strong showing of strength and this was not an incredible rally, but it did...
15:56:51
Pete
@Abie To be clear, I only swing for the fence when I have ALL of the checkboxes marked. It is rare and it should be rare for all of you. Personally, I need to have an incredible entry point and instant...
15:58:32
Pete
Hari is bearish and Pete is bullish. Error on the side of caution.
15:59:35
Pete
i am bidding $3790 for 1X
16:01:18
Pete
Yes as we used to say on the floor "i'm wearin em".
16:01:31
Pete
Long ES  3790 1X
16:09:27
Pete
st0rm wrote: Question @Pete why hold SPY/ES at the top of the day as it pulls back instead of selling and re-buying when you get another clear entry signal?Because it was not the top of the day when you posted the...
16:09:53
Pete
16:11:28
Pete
Andreas wrote: Question @Pete Curious why the 3762 to hold?At the time that was the open from a green candle that should have provided support. 
16:17:47
Pete
That question about taking gains at the hod was legitimate if I was looking at a typical day with price movement that was all over the board. In that case I would have taken gains. This was different. I had...
16:19:02
st0rm
@Pete great answer! Sometimes the worst thing is losing your position, right?
16:19:58
Pete
Yes. If you are looking for a bigger move and all of the checkboxes remain marked, weather those little speedbumps and stay the course.
16:50:43
Pete
17:05:59
Pete
To further Hari's comment, yes I am very bullish for this tiny moment in time and I am much more bullish over this time frame than he is. I don't know the duration of this slice, but I do know...
17:17:12
Hariseldon
From GS: "Today's stock rise is also being accompanied by a rise in the VIX. The index of market volatility is sitting close to 30 after dipping below 20 back in August. This is perhaps the most enduring thing to...
17:18:12
Pete
@Hariseldon I believe that GS year end target is 3600. That might include a drop below that and late rally back to it
Top