Daily Market Analysis

2022-10-04

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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06:44:18
Pete
Isidore wrote: What would nearly “perfect” market conditions look like to you all in regards to SPY price action? I nice strong bullish trend on the D1 chart with nice small M5 retracements during bearish 1OP cycles, deep troughs and crisp...
06:44:49
Pete
... or the opposite in a bearish D1 trend. 
06:51:56
Pete
Short ES 3756. I like this bearish 1OP cross. Only looking for 5 pts.
06:52:17
Pete
Nice early rally so I do not want to be greedy on this pullback.
07:05:04
Pete
Exit ES 3751 for 5 pt gain 1/2 position. Stop at entry and bid 3746 for remainder.
07:05:39
Pete
07:05:50
Pete
I do love my indicator.
07:10:40
Pete
On this particular move I am not thrilled about shorting a big move higher, I would prefer to join it so setting "passive targets". Also managing the trade by taking some gains and letting some run and not exposing myself...
07:11:28
Pete
The trade is on auto pilot now and I have hard orders working. Time to reload my coffee.
07:28:18
Pete
Exit ES 3748 for 8 pt gain. That is ave of 6.5 pts. Now I can afford Starbucks
07:31:31
Pete
I don't want to get too aggressive shorting a strong overnight move higher. I trust the indicator and I like the price action, but ultimately I want to join this move, not fade it. There was a bullish div earlier...
07:44:25
Pete
I liked that long green engulfing candle M5. It is either a sign of support or it will be a "solo" to sqz shorts. We will know and that outcome soon. If it gets hammered down it will confirm that...
07:46:26
Pete
Two bullish hammers M5 that preserve the open from that long green candle. That is bullish in my eyes, but pre-open I will wait as long as possible before buying.
07:48:54
Pete
Long ES 3750.50
07:50:04
Pete
This is the third bullish hammer after that green candle and the open of it has been preserved. I have a bullish cross (not my fav since near zero) and given the market strength overnight I will try a long...
07:53:02
Pete
$3746.50 stop and 3755.50 target for 1/2. Time to do some research and write my comments. You know my orders so won't post play-by-play.
08:06:22
Pete
Raised stop to 3750.50 (entry)
08:22:37
Pete
Exit ES stopped at entry for scratch. I was planning to exit ahead of econ releases anyway.
08:40:40
Pete
09:29:38
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – Yesterday the market gapped higher and it was able to hold the gains through the first two hours of trading. That is typically when the selling pressure surfaces and when any gains evaporate. As the...
09:45:01
Pete
As a pro, I am more inclined to fade this move than I am to join it. The danger is that others might feel the same way. On a move of this magnitude, early shorts will get squeezed and that...
09:55:40
Pete
rrathk1 wrote: @Pete  in regards to "retracement", are you referring to the closing of next candle(s) or the wick?On that red candle you want the next candle to close near the close of the bear engulf and you do NOT want...
10:07:14
Pete
We filled in the gap from Sept 23 on the first shot. That is impressive.  
10:25:46
Pete
10:32:31
Pete
From an ES standpoint you could lament that you missed a great rally gap and go move. I don't see it that way at all. Chasing these moves early in a bear market is dangerous. At very least you need...
10:34:50
Pete
So is this a good short setting up? No. This is going to be a bullish trend day. Now I have to patiently wait for the bear cycle to run. Ideally it does not produce a big pullback. No long...
10:36:39
Pete
If I start to see long red candles during this bearish cycle, it would be a sign that the selling pressure is heavier than I expected. I am still not going to short unless we quickly give up $374.
10:38:22
Pete
Know that on these Gap N Go formations, most of the gains are made in the first 90 min. After that the market compresses. You have to wait for dips and sell rips. The good thing is that many laggard...
11:02:20
Pete
I am not a fan of this pattern right here for ES. Not bearish, but not a place where I would buy. Stocks are a different story. If you have the grind higher you want you can trade those without...
11:13:17
Pete
11:49:59
Pete
For a nice buy to set up today we need to take out $376. It might take a while for that to happen because these compressions can last a long time. That move needs to look like the selling pressure...
12:54:30
Pete
This level needs to hold or the bearish cycle will produce. If it does hold, it will set up a nice long.
12:55:22
Pete
These are pretty "beefy" red candles so I am watching closely. The good news is that one way or another, there should be a decent trade in here.
12:56:35
Pete
From a bullish perspective, I would want this pattern at the end of a bear cycle, not at the beginning of one.
12:59:33
Pete
If you look at yesterday's chart you will notice that this  lead to some tiny bullish hammers and a mix of green and red. all small bodies. That is how we want this dip to be resolved (from a bullish...
13:00:03
Pete
In my comment I am referencing the two red candles that stacked. 
13:05:24
Pete
SPY is right on the VWAP
13:05:53
Pete
In the example yesterday, we stayed above it and I should have referenced that.
13:08:43
Pete
Now we are too far off of the hod and you need to start exiting some of your longs.
13:15:01
Pete
We are seeing steady selling pressure and the SPY was not able to get above VWAP. This looks like a good short here
13:33:46
Pete
We are going to get a bullish cross in here. The lod was preserved, but the selling was pretty heavy. I don't believe we are going to see an instant rally back because of the speed and orderly drop. Be...
13:39:27
Pete
I would love to test the open of that last decent green candle and then zoom back to finish with a bullish hammer. That would get me believing that we will bounce here. Anything organized and a drip, drip, drip...
13:41:36
Pete
Just because we have a bullish cross, does not mean 1OP won't roll over and continue lower. It barely got < 0 and I am always cautious on these shallow troughs, especially early in the cycle.
13:53:56
Pete
Long ES 3790
13:54:20
Pete
we are back above the VWAP and this bullish cross is gaining traction
14:00:10
Pete
Without these nice drops, we are stuck in the mud. They attract sellers and that short covering fuels the move higher. they also confirm the appetite/conviction of buyers. I typically do not like pullbacks of this magnitude, but it did...
14:01:14
Pete
We are also in a bear market so the dips on bullish trend days are going to be deeper
14:22:21
Pete
I need to see that green candle soon or I will stop out of the ES trade. I do not want to lose the VWAP and too much time is elapsing before I get that candle. 1OP also extended. Don't...
14:25:39
Pete
Exit ES scratch 3791 
14:26:31
Pete
I wanted this bullish cycle to produce more than it did. I can always get back in, but with bear cross here I will error on the side of caution.
14:37:44
Pete
I am just as comfortable shorting here as I was buying earlier. If we close below the low of that last long red candle I will short. That would be consistent with a bearish 1OP cycle and a lower high...
14:46:28
Pete
If we get through this bearish 1OP cycle without any damage, I would be willing to consider the long side. So far the low from that red candle and VWAP are holding so I am not considering a short 
15:13:41
Pete
Nice pullback earlier in the day and nice recovery. We were not able to challenge the hod and this is a brisk round of selling. Conclusion... expect a choppy close. Buyers and sellers are playing tug o war.
15:34:55
Pete
The SPY is just chopping around the VWAP. I don't think it will move much. This bounce certainly did NOT impress me. Legit buying would have fueled another leg higher. Instead, we ran, compressed and never got back to the...
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