Daily Market Analysis

2022-10-03

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

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All Comments

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09:30:09
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – The market made a new low for the year Friday and the losses in the last 10 minutes of trading were probably related to the end of the quarter. This morning the market is taking...
09:58:17
Pete
This backdrop reminds me of one of the toughest trading backdrops I have faced. It was when I started trading professionally in 2002. It was after the "tech bubble" and stocks had been trashed. We were preparing to invade Iraq...
10:00:31
Pete
I lost a lot of capital trying to trade that market and I questioned my skills. Don't let yourself fall into that trap. When the market finally did release in May 2003, I wish I had the money I had...
10:17:34
Pete
The market has been able to recover the open from Fri and that is a pretty good showing so far. 
10:18:14
Pete
I still don't trust early rallies. I have to see how this entire bear cycle plays out before I trade the long side.
10:19:20
Pete
I am watching the open from the last long green candle. If I see a bear engulf or a bear hammer of of the hod and that candle fails, I will not hesitate to short.
10:19:53
Pete
If you look at the early rally Friday you will see a similar attempt at an early bounce.
10:36:29
Pete
Tiny compressed candles near the high from Fri. 1OP made it to zero, but I will not give this cross too much credence. It could easily roll over and keep going down. 
10:38:32
Pete
The high from Fri is one resistance level and the high from Thurs is another. At minimum we need to get thru those before I can start thinking about any kind of strength. You will not typically see a meaningful...
10:44:52
Pete
Still some beginning of month fund buying to provide a little support. $363.45 is a level I am watching. I would need to see that fail and 1OP continue lower. I am not overly anxious to trade and I would...
11:22:48
Pete
That last long green candle was to sqz early shorts. It hit resistance near the hod from Fri. If the open from the long green candle fails, you should be very careful with longs. I feel that would be a...
11:37:53
Pete
Short ES 3668
11:45:38
Pete
Stop at entry price. I do not want to go back there and I do not expect to.
11:46:23
Pete
Now I manage profits. For me the key (especially with ES) is the entry.
11:54:28
Pete
Still hanging on to short, but ready to stop out. Need to see red candle here.
12:03:18
Pete
Exit ES 1 pt gain. Not doing what I expected.
12:05:10
Pete
ES looks like it could drop, but this could also be a bull flag and it is preparing for a test of the hod. I wanted to see steady progress on that short. That would be a sign that sellers...
12:06:29
Pete
If you look at the hod from Fri and the red candles that follwed, that is what I want to see.
12:10:13
Pete
If we reach for the hod and the market is repelled, that will form a lower high double top and I would short that on red candles after. I would NOT be overly excited to buy a long green candle...
12:11:35
Pete
Mentally, the best trade (most comfort level) for me personally is to short a double top lower high today.
12:17:45
Pete
If this is a bullish flag you would expect boom, boom, boom higher. They would have shorts on the run and they can force the breakout. If they don't get that follow thru right away it is a sign that...
12:20:45
Pete
Short ES 3670
12:26:04
Pete
Exit ES 3670.
12:26:33
Pete
Scratch. Now I am done trying here. There is no momentum either way for ES
12:27:11
Pete
If the $363.50 level fails I would consider that, but 
12:27:27
Pete
this is very choppy
12:30:30
Pete
No retracement and a red candle I would short here
12:31:09
Pete
Short ES 3662 1/2 and will add.
12:34:25
Pete
The reason we do not want to see these red candles retrace is that we want to know that sellers are aggressively offering in the middle of that bar. They want to short any bounce into it and when they...
12:46:42
Pete
Exit ES 3666. That was a 4 pt loss on 1/2 position or 2 pts on normal position. There is nothing here for me. This is just chop. Greater chance that we go down from here than up, but no room...
13:12:09
Pete
Not that there is much of an advantage on a dead day like this, but buyers have scored a small victory by keeping sellers at bay for the first half of the day. We were able to hold the gains...
14:05:28
Pete
Are we going to breakout? Should I get long? On a day like this with 1OP spiking I would hold off. Let the bearish cycle run and if we stay tight to the hod then the next bullish cross should...
14:06:19
Pete
I don't feel there is a big downside threat if you have the right stock. They tested the bid and it held as far as I am concerned. 
14:24:42
Pete
Alert triggered. We just touched the open from Thursday
14:43:35
Pete
I did not post ISM man. It was lighter than expected at 50.9. Still above contraction (barely). That was down from 52.8 last month. Construction spending down .7% and .4% drop expected. We need to keep an eye on econ...
14:44:40
Pete
We had a nice little bullish day like this last Wed. The momentum is up and we are in the gap from Thurs. It will be interesting to see if the gains hold overnight
14:52:20
Pete
The WSJ reported that many shippers (ocean containers) are cancelling dozens of routes some of which are their busiest due to a lack of demand. This is their busiest time of year and rates are down as much at 75%....
14:53:15
st0rm
Good news for market because less growth = less future interest rate hikes?
14:55:16
Pete
@st0rm Not from where I stand. The Fed has stated they see signs of slowing growth, but that they are going to battle inflation no matter what and they expect slower growth. Some officials have said that they feel a soft...
15:00:02
Pete
With regard to my statements, we don't trade fundamentals. I am not suggesting that this makes me more (or less) bearish. In addition to trading, the economy impacts us personally so just wanted to share. 
15:16:33
Pete
This 1OP bearish cross should produce a little selling after the strong day. I would be surprised if there was not some profit taking.
16:07:32
Pete
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