2022-09-16

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08:45:31 Pete	PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – The SPY is breaking the lower end of the wedge formation that I have been referencing. This breakdown was happening yesterday, but it has been confirmed by an overnight drop. This move is going to...
08:45:49 Pete
08:46:41 Pete	I have been busy this morning. I am short /ES overnight and I am going to get a haircut. See you on the opening bell.
08:48:11 Pete	https://www.reddit.com/r/RealDayTrading/comments/xfqadz/how_to_short_the_gap_down_today/
09:34:20 Pete	I am back and I will add to my ES short so that I have a full position
09:35:31 Pete	Short ES $3869.50 Dec 1/2
09:39:13 Pete	We have a D1 technical breakdown and I have an excellent entry on the first 1/2 from yesterday so I don't mind adding here. My ave entry price gives me plenty of cushion and I do not have to worry...
09:41:25 Pete	ES 3891 (Dec) is my ave price
10:06:03 Pete	Wimpy down trend with mixed overlapping candles. No worries, that was a bear div. Now we get to see what the bear cycle brings. If the downward price action does not improve during this cycle I will watch for signs...
10:08:03 Pete	my stop is above the hod. This is a nice long green candle. There are a lot of shorts on the open that can get shaken out. We want this to be a "solo" and to reverse quickly. If it...
10:09:36 Pete	The institutions are trying to scare you out. Don't let "solos" bother you. They are good and when they reverse they provide great entry points and confirmation that we are on the right side.
10:11:29 Pete	The sellers will hammer these down like a nail into drywall. If we start seeing 2-3 candles of any length we have to be more cautious.
10:15:53 Pete	If this holds I will exit. They are in the gap and that will trigger some stops. I need to see this green candle retrace NOW
10:20:14 Pete	Using 3881 stop.
10:23:12 Pete	I would like to drop below the halfway point of that green candle here
10:30:47 Pete	Exit ES  10 pt gain on a stop
10:32:11 Pete	If that green candle off of  the lod was a solo it would have retraced right away. We added a second one and went into the gap. Still not overly worried at that point. When both held, it told me...
10:34:36 Pete	Notice the halfway point of the second long green candle held. I wanted it to fail.  This was a wimpy drop from the start. I am going to see how far they can rally this and wait for another entry...
10:42:25 Pete	From a bearish standpoint I want to see a benign bullish 1OP cycle and signs of resistance forming. No long green candles from here in. Then compressed tiny candles with lots of wicks. If I see that and 1OP spikes,...
10:42:48 Pete	Favor the short side. You are either in cash or you are short. One of the two.
10:48:22 Pete	Short SPY $384 full
10:51:00 Pete	Short SPY 384 2X
10:53:02 Pete	Shorts have been shaken out (myself included). Market was not able to add to gains, bearish hammer off of the hod and I am leaning on the notion that at very least we revisit the lod  once.
10:53:26 Pete	These are mixed overlapping candles so there is not much going on either way. Drop and compress,
10:55:59 Pete	M5 is at zero and it could easily cross back down.
10:56:30 Pete	Right here the half way point of that last long green candle is of  greatest interest. It goes and we drop
10:59:04 Pete	kugelis wrote: @pete we also have bull crosses on M5, M15, M30, and H1They are all on zero, all can keep moving lower and the bear cycles for all are working to this point
10:59:45 Pete	@kugelis It is very easy to talk yourself out of trades. Look at the D1 for SPY. That is a significant breach.
11:01:10 Pete	We just lost the half way point of the long green candle and perhaps the open here. I don't like these constant retracements. That tells me that there are still buyers. They need to be discouraged and a new lod...
11:14:23 Pete	Exit SPY $.30 x 2
11:15:33 Pete	The price action is very sluggish. I wanted to see better progress on the downside and it has been a gradual drift lower with lots of retracement.
11:16:47 Pete	For stock trading this is OK if the stock can't find a bid, but not for /ES
12:08:20 Pete	This is NOT how we want to approach the lod. This is hardly an attack and I would expect to see a bounce if we do poke through it. Buyers have been engaged so far. That means when we get...
12:10:47 Pete	I am liking my FXI long term swing short. IMO China is on the ropes and the FedEx CEO confirmed what I already suspected.
12:31:48 Pete	These last few candles are nice and they do show that buyers are not very aggressive here. I would like to see a small bounce here with a high that is lower than the last bounce and then a long...
12:40:00 Pete
12:50:14 Pete	This green candle should not be catching you by surprise. I told you to expect it. When these short covering bounces are IMMEDIATELY smacked down, you know that sellers are getting aggressive. If this gets slapped down in the next...
12:52:08 Pete	A poke thru the M5 down trendline would attract bullish specs. That would also be interesting because then we have victims who can get flushed out. That breakout has to reverse quickly
12:57:26 Pete	https://twitter.com/t_professor1970/status/1570818203227684865
12:58:59 Pete	I would like a nice green candle here and then a bear engulf
12:59:47 Pete	Get those dip buyers good and excited and then see if the sellers show up.
13:02:34 Pete	@TheProfessor1970 Beautiful calls BTW. I usually have my head down cranking things out and posting comments that I forget to praise the Featured Traders. You guys are the best.
13:04:54 Pete	Short SPY $383.10
13:08:10 Pete	Now that I have my short on I can go grab some lunch. I did not want to miss this set-up.
13:09:50 Pete	We are going to trigger some sell stops at the lod so we should see a nice long red candle thru. It's what happens after that that matters. We do not want a long green engulfing candle or a bullish...
13:16:28 Pete	Just so you have an idea of where my stop would be $383.70. I don't have one working, but I do have an alert set. I want to give it as much room as I can in this dull session.
13:26:46 Pete	Just because of the horrible price action on the way down, if we get a long red candle thru the lod, I will take gains. I don't want to risk a headfake to trigger sell stops and then a rally...
13:28:17 Pete	still lots  of time in the trading day so if we do get the breakdown and follow thru there is time for the move lower to gain traction.
13:34:51 Pete	That long green short covering candle just turned to shit. That is what we want to see. Sellers spanked it down.
13:52:29 Pete	See how we slapped down those 2 little short sqz bars? That is what we want. Now we have a chance to take out the lod.
13:54:59 Pete	Hard stop SPY $383.10. I am hungry as heck and I don't want to play patty cake with this market any longer. Stop me out for a scratch or stick this pig. I am going to grab a bite.
14:27:48 Pete	Exit SPY at $383.10. stop
14:28:45 Pete	We needed to see that breakdown. This is a fairly long candle and we need to respect it. One more and we go into the gap
14:30:25 Pete	from a timing standpoint, it will take this about 30 min to reverse and that would put us at the lod. That takes us to the last hour of trading and a major breakdown today is unlikely. We needed it...
14:32:11 Pete	1OP bullish cross just starting. Bulls want to see half of this long green candle hold and then add another nice one in 2-3 bars that take us to the hod.
14:33:42 Pete	It is holding and on a triple witch anything can happen so this looks pretty good for the bulls.
14:34:32 Pete	this candle has taken out the last 3 resistance levels so it it is not your run of the mill short covering candle.
14:42:24 Pete	We have  been able to hold half of that green candle so far. Bulls want another green candle right here. If they can't get one this green candle will start to fail. They need to clear the high of that...
14:43:41 Pete	With the bullish 1OP cross and the inability for shorts to take out the lod I am fairly bullish here.
14:44:12 Pete	If you stay in one place long enough, they will try the other side.
14:48:47 Pete	We are going into the gap.
15:01:37 Pete	This is where the rubber meets the road. Bulls have been able to hold the high of that last long green candle, but that need to add to it now or risk stalling and reversing.
15:09:23 Pete	SPY in the gap now and still plenty of 1OP cycle to go. I would look for bullish lottos first. NFLX looks good
15:10:40 Pete	Once I find a few good bullish lottos I will look bearish side in case this rally fails.
15:21:43 Pete	Bearish engulf off of hod not a good pattern. Bulls need to erase that now to have a chance. We go below the open of that red candle and we could see some selling. Looking for bear lottos now.
15:22:12 Pete	Really choppy action. You can see by the mixed candles. Neither side can get anything going
15:26:59 Pete	couple of wicks at hod. sign of some resistance. I would need  to see a red candle in here to short. $384.60 is a level I am watching
15:30:25 Pete	Short SPY 384.60
15:33:00 Pete	We had a bearish engulf off of the hod and tails forming. If we got thru $384.60 we had a chance to drop and it would have been a sign that resistance is holding. This is chopfest so I won't...
15:33:32 Pete	This is just not a great backdrop for lottos. No momentum/follow thru
15:34:02 Pete	I looked for candidates but did not see anything great.
15:39:46 Pete	Exit SPY $385.30
15:40:13 Pete	Loss $.70. This is garbage. The last trade was ill advised in this backdrop.
16:05:44 Pete	This day was filled  with potential and it never materialized. The D1 chart is bearish and this was a nice breakdown. Triple witch could have impacted it, but I expected to at very least see nice movement both ways. We...